The Washington Commanders and New York Giants will meet for the second time in three weeks with the Commanders, who are coming off their bye, sitting as 5-point home favorites.
The Commanders could be running a lot against a defense that has been shredded on the ground of late, which is giving us some game-script value to the NFL player props market Sunday night.
Here are my NFL prop picks for Sunday Night Football’s battle between the Giants and Commanders. For more, be sure to read Jason Logan's Giants vs. Commanders picks and predictions.
Giants vs Commanders props
- Robinson Over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Slayton Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Dotson Under 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Commanders SNF props
Running rookie
Coming off the bye, the Commanders’ O-line will be a little stronger. Starting center Tyler Larsen will be out but the right side of the line (Trai Turner RG and Sam Cosmi RT) have practiced this week after dealing with injuries in Week 13. This is good news for a Washington running game that will see a defense that just gave up 253 yards on 31 carries and four touchdowns last week vs. the Eagles.
Since Week 6, it has been Brian Robinson’s backfield. In eight games, the rookie is averaging 17.25 carries, for an offense that has the fifth-highest rush percentage over the last month. He was limited this week at practice but was removed from the injury report on Friday as the No.1 back is ready to roll in a key divisional game.
Most missed tackles forced by a RB since WK9 (per PFF):
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) December 13, 2022
1) Josh Jacobs - 36 ????
2) Dameon Pierce - 19
3) Tyler Allgeier - 18
4t) Miles Sanders - 17
4t) Brian Robinson - 17
6t) Travis Etienne - 16
6t) #MandatoryMontgomery - 16#FantasyFootball
Robinson ran 21 times for 96 yards vs. this same defense in Week 13, with Commanders running the ball early and often with 36 rushes for 165 yards. Only the Packers have allowed more rushing yards per game over the last three weeks than the Giants, who also rank 31st in rush DVOA.
Robinson’s rushing total closed at 61.5 vs. the Giants in Week 13 and with the rest, projected game script, and share of the snaps, I’m taking the Over 64.5 yards in what will be another slow-paced, heavy-running divisional game.
Brian Robinson Prop: Over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
Grand Central Slayton
Since Week 10, Darius Slayton leads the Giants in target share (21.2%), air yards per reception (10.4), and yards after contact per catch (3.2). He’s 6-1 O/U on his receiving total in his last seven games, with the lone Under coming last week, where he finished with 42 yards on a yardage total of 45.5 vs. the best pass defense in football in the Eagles.
Slayton burned the Commanders for 90 yards on six catches (nine targets) in Week 13 and had a long reception of 55 yards. Ten of his 35 grabs have gone for 20-plus yards and he has at least one 20-yard reception in eight of his last nine games. He is Daniel Jones’ favorite target and runs the deepest routes on the team.
That’s a great combination for a player with a receiving total of 44.5 yards — one yard shorter than his closing line in Week 13 vs. the Commanders.
Chase Young is looking doubtful to return while stating corner Benjamin St-Juste is also very questionable. Richie James also possibly not suiting up Sunday night is good news, too. If James were to sit, his targets would bleed to the No. 1 receiver.
Darius Slayton Prop: Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dotson candy
Jahan Dotson was targeted nine times vs. the Giants in Week 13, which he turned into five catches for 54 yards and a score. The output was a bit of an outlier, as the receiver had seen more than five targets just once this season and had been held to 14 yards or fewer in four of his previous six games.
Dotson’s receiving total has jumped significantly from 19.5 yards to 31.5 yards this week, which is making the Under appetizing. Washington is projected to play with a neutral-to-positive game script, which doesn’t favor the passing game, while quarterback Taylor Heinicke has a passing total of just 215.5 yards. The double-digit winds aren’t helping, either.
Dotson is the third option in a low-volume pass attack and sits third on the team in route participation. With the massive jump in his yardage total, the weather, the game script, and his role in the offense, this is a great target for an Under. THE BLITZ is projecting 24.12 yards.
Jahan Dotson Prop: Under 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
