Giants vs Cowboys Predictions, Picks, Odds & Best Bets for Thanksgiving

All the gravy in the world couldn’t make this afternoon's NFC East rivalry easier to stomach, given the current state of the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys.

Who’d of thought that when New York was scheduled to face Dallas in the annual Thanksgiving Day showcase, my Giants vs. Cowboys predictions would be getting a matchup of Drew Lock vs. Cooper Rush at quarterback? Injuries are adding up for both teams on the short week, which doesn’t bode well for fans of high-flying football.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this Thanksgiving game and give my best NFL picks for this divisional clash. 

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, with the game airing on FOX.

Giants vs Cowboys prediction

Who will win Giants vs Cowboys?

The Dallas Cowboys opened as 3.5-point home favorites, and we’ve seen this spread climb as high as -4 before buyback on the New York Giants trimmed it down to the original post. 

Before you get into the roster holes for these foes, this is already a tough schedule spot for Dallas. The annual Thursday game on Thanksgiving puts the Cowboys on the field for the third time in 10 days.

That quick turnaround doesn’t help a Cowboys depth chart running thin, with QB Cooper Rush, WR1 CeeDee Lamb, TE1 Jake Ferguson, and top OLs Zach Martin and Tyler Smith all questionable for Week 13.

Prediction: The Giants have a mess at quarterback as well, but they’re healthy for the most part. It would not shock me to see New York come into Dallas and spoil Jerry Jones’ Thanksgiving — if the Cowboys’ injury issues are as bad as they look.

My best bet

Pick: Giants team total Under 16.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The New York Giants have had issues at quarterback all season, and casting off former starter Daniel Jones hasn’t helped. Heading into this short week, New York will be counting on QB3 Drew Lock to take snaps with QB2 Tommy DeVito nursing an injury to his throwing arm. 

Truth be told, the difference between DeVito and Lock in terms of the betting markets isn’t much, but the short week doesn’t leave Lock much time to cook up any chemistry with New York’s receivers. We’re going to see a dumbed-down offense from Brian Daboll, with shorter throws and plenty of handoffs.

The Dallas Cowboys’ defense has been up-and-down this season, mostly down due to injuries to key contributors. But the stop unit is getting those big bodies back and has quietly improved the past three weeks — despite giving up a total of 94 points in that span.

In the opening nine weeks of action, Dallas ranked 30th in EPA allowed per play. Since Week 10, the defense has played with more bite and improved to 15th in that advanced metric. And doing so against much stronger offensive opposition than the Giants (Commanders, Texans, Eagles).

A lot of that has to do with standout edge Micah Parsons’ return, which has helped boost the Cowboys’ pass rush and collect 10 sacks over those previous three outings. Dallas now has the fifth-highest pressure rate per dropback and faces a backup QB behind a depleted offensive line possibly missing its starting tackles in Week 13.

The Over/Under markets, specifically when factoring in Dallas’ defense, are skewed due in large part to last Sunday’s result. The Cowboys held a 20-9 lead over the Washington Commanders — the most explosive offense in the NFL — for the first 57 minutes. Then all hell broke loose in the last 182 seconds (Commanders scored 17 points). 

Because of that, the Giants’ team total is sitting just shy of 17 points, which is a bar New York has surpassed only five times all season, including just squeaking over with efforts of 17, 18, and 18 points. And that was at the best of times.

We catch the G-Men in a really tough spot in Week 13, playing on the road in a short week with a possible Plan C passer under center. 

Giants vs Cowboys same-game parlay

Giants team total Under 16.5

Tyrone Tracy 2+ receptions

Rico Dowdle 50+ rushing yards

+257 at FanDuel

Backup QBs, a broken offensive line, and an aggressive Dallas pass rush doesn’t add up to many points for the G-Men.

Tyrone Tracy drew four targets with the backup QBs under center last week and will once again be a quick-hitting option against the Cowboys.

Rico Dowdle had 19 carries in Week 12 — his second most of the season — and faces a Giants defense giving up the most yards per carry (5.2) in the NFL.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Giants vs Cowboys odds

Giants vs Cowboys live odds

Giants vs Cowboys opening odds

• Spread: New York +3.5 | Dallas -3.5
• Moneyline: New York +155 | Dallas -190
• Over/Under: Over 39.5 | Under 39.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Giants vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis

• Dallas opened as a 3.5-point home chalk for the annual holiday home game, and we’ve seen this spread jump to -4 with buyback on New York bumping it back to the original spot.
• Our Covers Consensus tool shows 79% of picks laying the points with "America's Team."
• The total opened as high as 39.5 but was trimmed to as low as 37.5 with both teams listing their current starting QBs as questionable. 
• Covers Consensus shows 63% of picks taking the Over.

Giants vs Cowboys betting trend to know

Dallas not only plays its third game in 10 days on Thanksgiving, but has been a historically bad bet on the holiday. The Cowboys are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Thanksgiving Day games. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.

How to watch Giants vs Cowboys game info

Giants vs Cowboys latest injuries

Giants vs Cowboys weather

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