Giants vs Cowboys Thanksgiving Day Picks and Predictions: Dak Attacks New York's Banged-Up Secondary

A Thursday game for the Dallas Cowboys is as much a Thanksgiving Day tradition as drunk uncles and clogged toilets. 

The Cowboys host their annual showcase on the holiday, welcoming the rival New York Giants to AT&T Stadium in NFL Week 12.

Dallas couldn’t have looked any better in a 40-3 flogging of Minnesota last Sunday, which is driving the spread for this NFC East clash upwards. New York also has a laundry list of injuries coming into this short week, contributing to the line move.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this second of three Thanksgiving Day games and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Giants at Cowboys on November 24. Gobble, gobble.

Giants vs Cowboys best odds

Giants vs Cowboys picks and predictions

Week 11 saw Dak Prescott put in his best effort since returning from an early-season injury that cost him the first chunk of the schedule.

Prescott threw for 286 yards versus Minnesota, completed 88% of his passes, and connected for two touchdowns — the bulk of that damage done in only three quarters of football as the Cowboys took their foot off the gas in the 40-3 win.

Prescott has been the driving force behind this Cowboys attack that has stacked 117 points over the past three games. Dak has thrown for just under 800 yards and seven TDs in that span, ranking out Top 6 in many advanced QB metrics during this stretch.

He can add to that resume and his legend in Big D with a strong showing on Thanksgiving this Thursday. The table is set for Prescott to feast, facing a Giants defense that sits 24th in DVOA against the pass and could be down multiple bodies in the secondary.

New York will be without starting corner Adoree' Jackson while the CB on the other side, Fabian Moreau, missed practice with a rib injury. Starting free safety Dane Belton is questionable after being limited Tuesday, as is reserved SS Jason Pinnock, and the secondary is still without FS Xavier McKinney.

Prescott has multiple options in the passing game, with WRs CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup looking exploit those soft spots in the New York secondary on the outside. Tight end Dalton Schultz has enjoyed having Dak back and RB Tony Pollard is quickly becoming one of the best dual-threats in the league, coming off a 109-yard, two-TD receiving day against Minnesota.

Prescott’s passing yards prop for Week 12 sits at 242.5 yards. While it doesn’t seem like much, the game script of a near double-digit spread could see plenty of handoffs and Dallas killing clock in the second half. On top of that, the G-Men tend to play keep away with the football, running a methodical pace and ranking among the top possession offenses in the land.

Instead, I'm going Over Dak’s touchdown total of 1.5 TD passes at -150. He’s surpassed this total in each of the past three games, faces a depleted N.Y. pass defense, and is playing on the fast track inside AT&T Stadium with a total that’s on the rise.

Prescott should get plenty of touches as well, thanks to the Dallas defense. The Cowboys pass rush is among the most disruptive in the NFL, leading the league in sacks and sitting second in pressure rate. The Giants offensive line is just as banged up as the secondary, with four starters touting questionable statuses on the short week.

Even when healthy, this New York pass protection has allowed QB Daniel Jones to feel pressure on 28.9% of dropbacks — second highest in the NFL. Dallas is also the seventh-ranked defense in third down conversions allowed, giving the ball back to Prescott and the offense, which has run 68.7 average plays the past three games.

My best bet: Dak Prescott passing touchdowns Over -1.5 (-150)

Giants vs Cowboys spread analysis

Dallas opened as low as 8-point home chalk for this Thursday contest and quickly jumped to -8.5 on Sunday night.

Public perception of these two teams couldn’t be more opposite, with the Cowboys coming off an impressive blasting of the Vikings on the road in Week 11 and the Giants getting rolled by Detroit at home last weekend.

Adding in the injury concerns for the G-Men and the public appeal of “America’s Team” and this spread has spiked to -9.5 as of Wednesday morning. New York has multiple starters out or questionable in the secondary while the offensive line has four starters listed as questionable, reserves also up in the air, as well as starting TE Daniel Bellinger.

The Cowboys pass rush is among the best in the league, owning the second highest pressure rate per dropback and a league-leading 35 sacks — seven of which came against Minnesota last week. Linebacker Micah Parsons is expected to play through an ankle injury on Thursday while DE DeMarcus Lawrence is listed as questionable after missing practice with both a foot injury and illness.

Dallas has been a money pit over the past 11 Thanksgiving Day games (1-10 ATS) but enters Week 12 with a 7-3 ATS count on the season. The Giants have an identical 7-3 ATS count but have failed to cover in two of their last three, including the 31-18 loss to the Lions as 3-point favorites last Sunday.

DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting 58% of bet count and 54% of handle taking the points with the Giants as of Wednesday morning. Covers Consensus shows 52% of picks backing New York on the road.

Giants vs Cowboys Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total opened as low as 43.5 points and has jumped as much as two points since Sunday night, sitting as high as 45.5 as of Wednesday.

The Cowboys offense was on full display in the win over Minnesota, racking up 40 points with a two-way attack on the ground and through the air. Dallas has picked up the pace on offense over the past three games, with Prescott working his way back into form after missing the first part of the season due to injury. The Cowboys are No. 3 in EPA per play the past three weeks, amassing a total of 117 points in that span.

New York isn’t as potent with the points but is very efficient with the football. The Giants are 10th in EPA per play and methodically make their way up the field, rolling out one of the slower tempos in the league with a play every 28.4 seconds. 

However, the G-Men may be forced to pick up the pace given the big spread and rising total. If the Cowboys following that game script, New York will be playing from behind and forced to go faster with more passing — which, in turn, puts the Giants at the mercy of this dangerous Dallas defense.

New York’s stop unit hasn’t been the best, ranked out 27th in DVOA, but doesn’t allow many points due to the offense’s plodding pace with the football chewing up possession and limiting the time opponents have on the attack. The secondary is very thin heading into Thanksgiving with Jackson out, two other starters listed as questionable, and reserve bodies banged up as well.

New York is 2-7-1 Over/Under on the season while Dallas owns a 3-6-1 O/U count. These NFC East rivals have produced a 5-2-1 O/U count in their last eight head-to-head meetings.

Giants vs Cowboys betting trend to know

While the Cowboys are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thanksgiving Day games, they do own a 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 matchups with the Giants. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.

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