The Dallas Cowboys rank third in points and first in passing yards and only have one improbable win to show for it through a quarter of the schedule.
The Cowboys try to make sense of the Hellraiser puzzle box that is their 2020 season when they welcome the New York Giants to AT&T Stadium in Week 5. Despite its defensive ineptitude, Dallas is a 9.5-point NFL betting favorite against a familiar face on the opposite sideline in former head coach Jason Garrett.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Giants vs. Cowboys on October 11.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at AT&T Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other Week 5 NFL games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Giants: Sterling Shepard WR (Out), Saquon Barkley RB (Out).
Cowboys: Tyron Smith OT (Out), Joe Looney C (Out), Leighton Vander Esch LB (Out), Blake Jarvin TE (Out), Sean Lee LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The biggest challenge for the Cowboys is not digging themselves a hole. Dallas has trailed by an average score of 24 to 13.2 at the break this season, which has forced the offense to abandon the run and go pass-heavy, which doesn’t help the defense in terms of catching its breath.
The Cowboys boast an average drive of just 2:11 – lowest in the NFL – before ushering the stop unit back on the field, either through a failed series or just scoring quickly. That’s allowed foes to control the clock for 33:51 per game – second-worst defensive TOP in the league.
The thought of New York putting up 24 points in the first half is about as side-spitting as Will Ferrell outtakes – even against a defense as lost as the Cowboys. The Giants did, however, have success running the ball versus L.A. in Week 4.
New York rumbled for 136 yards on 25 carries, panning out to over 33 minutes of possession, and the Cowboys are giving up 4.9 yards per carry to opposing rushers and rank 23rd in running defense DVOA entering this Sunday’s divisional clash.
And then there’s the Garrett factor. The Giants' offensive coordinator was likely a guest in many of New York’s defensive meetings this week, giving his inside intel on the Cowboys offensive weapons and Kellen Moore’s play-calling tells.
This spread is teetering on 9.5 at some books and has already jumped to Giants +10 at others. If you’re betting the G-Men to stay within this lofty point spread, shop around or wait it out to get New York at the key number.
PREDICTION: New York +10 (-115)
Over/Under pick
To the defense of Dallas’…defense, it’s played some potent offensive attacks in the opening four games of the season. Los Angeles (2), Seattle (3), and Cleveland (9) all rank in the Top 10 in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA metric and Atlanta (21) is the fifth-best passing attack in the NFL. Even if the stop unit wasn’t a complete mess, it still would have given up a good chunk of points.
Week 5 gives the Cowboys a respite from those high-octane offenses, gift-wrapping the 32nd-ranked offense in DVOA for a must-win home game. The Giants sit in the basement of most major offensive statistical categories and manage only 11.8 points per game, having last scored a touchdown in the final frame of their Week 2 loss to Chicago.
On the flip side, the G-Men defense has been OK. New York has done a good job stunting opponents’ drives and forcing them to settle for field goals, protecting against the big plays that Dallas is so fond of. The Giants have allowed an NFL-low eight passing plays of 20 or more yards and just one of 40-plus. New York hung around in the first half of Week 3’s game with San Francisco and checked Los Angeles to only 10 points until midway through the fourth quarter last Sunday.
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Player prop pick
There’s no shortage of blame being tossed around in Arlington, and some of that is landing on star running back Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke has seen his rushing totals drop the past two weeks, with injuries to the offensive line and the playbook forced to pass in a weekly game of catch-up playing into that lack of production.
Elliott has totaled only 84 yards on 26 carries since Week 3, for an average of only 3.2 yards per attempt. He runs into a New York defense that shut the door on the Rams’ potent ground game last week and is giving up just 3.6 yards per run – fourth lowest in the NFL.
But while Elliott may not be able to break off big gains on the ground, his pass-catching is getting better by the week. Zeke had 71 yards on 8-for-8 receiving against the Browns and so far in 2020, he’s totaled 159 yards receiving on 23 grabs.
The Cowboys desperately need to slow things down and control the pace and if they can’t crack the Giants defense with handoffs, they’ll do it with short tosses to Elliott.
PREDICTION: Ezekiel Elliott Over 29.5 receiving yards (-120)
Giants vs Cowboys betting card
- New York +10 (-115)
- Under 54 (-110)
- Ezekiel Elliott Over 29.5 receiving yards (-120)
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