Giants vs Jaguars Week 7 Picks and Predictions: No Shootout Expected in the Sunshine State

The New York Giants are one of the NFL’s best teams by record at 5-1, but they’ll be underdogs when they take on the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on Sunday afternoon during Week 7 action.

The teams are trending in totally opposite directions ahead of this game, as New York has won and covered in three straight games, while the Jags have lost outright and against the spread in three consecutive contests. 

Can the Giants stay hot? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Giants vs Jaguars on Sunday, October 23.

Giants vs Jaguars best odds

Giants vs Jaguars picks and predictions

The defenses have the offenses matched strength for strength in this one, so bettors should expect points to be precious.

The Giants have been highly dependent on star running back Saquon Barkley this season, as his rushing yards alone account for 32.4% of their total offense. He’s been nursing a shoulder injury since the end of Week 5, and has been limited at practice in the lead-up to this tilt. Keep that in mind before betting any player props on the star back.

Barkley being at less than 100% is not ideal for the Giants, as they’ll take on a Jaguars defense that’s third in the NFL by rushing yards allowed per game (89.3). That figure drops to 65.2 if you factor out the Week 4 contest in which they were bowled over by the Eagles — the final undefeated team in football. 

New York is fourth in rushing yards per game as a team, but only 31st in passing yards per game, so don’t expect any heroics from Daniel Jones under center. Jacksonville has also had better luck moving the ball on the ground as opposed to the air this year, ranking ninth in rushing yards per game, but only 20th in passing yards per game. 

The Big Blue defense comes into this game ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (144.8), but that unit has encountered some of the best in the business at running the football through six weeks — including the run-heavy Ravens and Bears. The Jags running back tandem of James Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. is not in that echelon just yet.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has made some strides since a disastrous rookie campaign, but he’s still not quite living up to the promise of being drafted No. 1 overall. He should contribute to the offensive struggles of both teams en route to Under bettors prevailing.

My best bet: Under 43 (-110 at DraftKings)

Giants vs Jaguars spread analysis

Regardless of location, it’s quite unusual to see a 2-4 team favored over a 5-1 team. But the Jaguars are getting 56% of the money despite receiving only 38% of the bets, so the sharps are all over Jacksonville, and you should be too.

The Giants have enjoyed playing only one true road game through Week 6, which was their dramatic opening-week win over the Titans. Their only other game this year that didn’t take place at MetLife Stadium was in London, when they upset Green Bay. Their stats could easily suffer playing in an inhospitable stadium.

The Jags are 1-1 at home in 2022, but have only allowed 13 points over those two games. Jacksonville picked up all three of their victories last season at TIAA Bank Field. 

The Giants have been trending well this year, but bettors should be aware that they were not a good road team in 2021. New York went 1-6 against the spread down the stretch as the visitors last year.

Look for the Jaguars — particularly their defense — to bounce back following a 34-27 loss to Indianapolis last week. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous clash.

Giants vs Jaguars Over/Under analysis

With both teams looking to run the ball first and foremost and prevent putting the game in the hands of a mediocre quarterback, time will be ticking off the clock in a hurry. In addition to the statistics, the trends are pointing toward this tilt being a low-scoring affair.

Bettors who have blindly backed the Under in Giants games dating back to 2020 have been making money hand over fist, as New York is 23-6-2 to the Under in its last 31 overall. By picking one’s spots a bit better, the percentages rise significantly. Big Blue is 5-1 to the Under in their last six outdoor games, and 13-3-1 in their last 17 games following a victory against the spread.

Several trends concerning the Jaguars also suggest that the Under will prevail. Jacksonville has gone below the total in each of its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous affair (it gave up 34 points to the Colts in Week 6). The Under is also 10-1 in the Jags’ last 11 home games against teams with winning road records, and 7-1 in their last eight home games regardless of opponent. 

Giants vs Jaguars betting trend to know

The Under is 18-6 in the Giants’ last 24 games against teams with losing records. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Jaguars.

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