The NFL's international schedule continues in Week 5, with the somehow 3-1 New York Giants and the more understandably 3-1 Green Bay Packers meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are 7.5-point favorites in London, with oddsmakers tipping their hand as far as their feelings about New York in the NFL betting market.
Our NFL player prop picks for the Giants vs. Packers check in on a pair of Green Bay skill position players, and a resurgent talent in New York's backfield.
Giants vs Packers prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Packers Week 5 props
Ice the win
I frequently look at AJ Dillon's rushing yards total in games I expect Green Bay to dominate. I expect that to be the case here, in a game in which the Packers are 7.5-point favorites, and so I am happily taking the Over on 52.5 rushing yards for Dillon against the Giants.
The massive tailback has taken on the role of closer for Green Bay, with the 1A to his 1B, Aaron Jones, continuing to be one of the league's more dynamic talents out of the backfield. That chance to close out a win should come against a Giants team that, while 3-1, is pretty middling, sitting 23rd in team DVOA.
To New York's credit, it has done a few things well early in 2022, but defending the run isn't one of those things. The G-Men's run defense is 23rd in DVOA and 25th in EPA, and the team has failed to contain any of the rushing threats faced this year — from Justin Fields, to Tony Pollard, to Christian McCaffrey.
Dillon isn't a particularly efficient runner but this matchup — both the opponent and game script — is absolutely ideal for his role in the Packers' offense. I am happily taking the Over on Dillon's rushing yards and carries in Week 5.
AJ Dillon Prop: Over 52.5 rushing yards (-115)
Who else?
Saquon Barkley entered the league with as much hype as any running back since Adrian Peterson. Then, after middling play followed by a season-ending knee injury, he was largely an afterthought or even written off. However, in his return from that torn ACL, Barkley is playing the best football of his career — for a Giants offense desperate for that level of impact.
Barkley's outstanding start to the season, in which he's averaging 142.5 scrimmage yards per game, will be badly needed to continue by New York's offense in London. Sterling Shephard's done for the year, Kadarius Toney can't get off the bench, Kenny Golladay can't get out of his own way, and both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor are dealing with injuries. Luckily for New York, Barkley's set up to do just that.
Green Bay has been bad against the run this year, currently ranking 28th in run defense DVOA and 21st in run defense EPA. For a tailback as efficient as Barkley is — currently boasting a 5.5 yards per carry mark — he won't need many opportunities to produce against that defensive front.
That's good, too, because this game could get away from New York pretty quickly. If it does, we can expect Barkley to be featured heavily through the air. Barkley's target share, 17.3%, is the highest it has been since his rookie year, while he is running more routes (on 64.8% of dropbacks) than he ever has in the Giants' offense.
Barkley is at the absolute height of his powers right now, both in terms of role and efficiency, with his yards per touch (5.8) and yards created per touch (3.88) career highs. The Giants' tailback is looking at just a 110.5 scrimmage yards line this week, despite averaging 142.5 per game this year and no indication of looming regression.
Saquon Barkley Prop: Over 110.5 total yards (-115)
Not great, Bob
Those among us waiting for Robert Tonyan to re-emerge as a factor in Green Bay's passing game got a tantalizing Week 3 but it's difficult to see that game as anything other than an anomaly.
That Week 3 meeting with the Bucs saw Tonyan play 57.4% of snaps, run a route on 53% of Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, and see 20% of the team's targets in a six-catch, 37-yard showing. That, while aided by Christian Watson's absence, was a solid role that hasn't been replicated.
Across three other games this year, Tonyan has totaled nine targets, seven catches, and 69 yards. He's otherwise been relegated to a bit-part role, too, as he has played 39.8% of snaps with a 47% route participation and earned a tiny 8.5% target share.
Tonyan is a forgotten member of the offense and, despite once-strong chemistry with Rodgers, isn't involved in the passing game. New York hasn't given up much at all to tight ends this year — despite facing a pair that are important cogs in their respective offenses in Dalton Schultz and Cole Kmet — allowing 5.5 targets, four catches, and 39.25 yards per game.
We've received little to no indication of Tonyan's role in this offense growing and as such, can comfortably take him to go Under this line.
Robert Tonyan Prop: Under 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
