At 9-5, the Baltimore Ravens are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. But two final games against the Giants and Bengals could make the road a little easier, as Baltimore currently has an 88 percent chance of making the postseason.
Whether it’s Colt McCoy or Daniel Jones under center for the G-men, it might not matter against Baltimore, but the big question is can the Ravens make it five straight covers on Sunday as a double-digit favorite?
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Giants vs Ravens for Sunday, December 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview
Weather
M&T Bank Stadium will be in the mid-30s with low winds and partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Giants: Golden Tate WR (Out).
Ravens: Jimmy Smith CB (Out), Marcus Peters CB (Out), Mark Ingram II RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in December. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Ravens.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Between Weeks 8 and 12, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Since then, John Harbaugh’s team has gone 3-0 SU and ATS thanks to 228 rushing yards per game — that’s 50 yards more per game than the next-best team.
Even if the Giants somehow shut down the best running attack in all of football, Jackson could find some success passing against the New York, who was without two starting corners last week. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield had his highest QBR last week against New York’s defense and managed 9.3 yards per pass attempt, which is a full yard more than the Texans’ league-best mark of 8.2.
The Ravens gave some of their banged-up defensive players a rest last week, so we would expect a healthy Baltimore D that is ready to make a playoff run. The thought of that should scare the Giants, who have managed just 13 total points over the last two weeks. In Week 15, Baltimore coasted and still managed a 40-14 win. This week, they mean business.
PREDICTION: Baltimore -11 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Under has hit in six straight games for New York, dating back to November 2. At 3-11 O/U on the year, the Giants are also the most successful Under team in the league. Having a Top-15 defense and a bottom-five offense has done wonders for the Giants in keeping points off the board.
If McCoy is running the offense, even 10 points would be asking a lot. New York managed only two field goals against the Browns’ No. 26 DVOA defense a week ago. Sure, they left a bunch of points on the board, but even with Jones at the helm in Week 14, they still only scored a single TD and made it into the attacking red zone just once against the Cardinals. Baltimore could pose a much more difficult task.
The Ravens have regained their rushing game, which has helped them hang a total of 121 points across Baltimore’s last three games. All three of the matches came against bottom-nine DVOA defenses, which the Giants’ D is not. Since October 18, a span of nine games, no opponent has scored more than 26 points, while collectively averaging 19.8 points per game against the Giants. New York owns a Top-15 rush defense and held RB Nick Chubb to 3.3 yards per carry last week.
With still a lot to play for from both teams, we could see some amped-up defenses and doubt the Ravens will run for 35-40 points against this stingy New York team.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
First Half Spread Pick
Baltimore picked up its 11th first-half ATS win last week, with the Ravens first-half ATS bet resulting in a wallet-padding 48 percent return on investment. The Ravens are a team built around grabbing an early lead, running the ball and letting its defense dictate the game.
No team has been better in the first half than the Ravens. Their 28.8 points per game is the sixth-most in the league, but they are the second-highest first-half scoring team at 16.3 points per first two quarters.
The Giants have put up a mere three points across their last three first halves. We don't need a calculator to figure out their 1H points per game average.
It isn't easy finding trends that are hitting at 79 percent in the NFL, especially this late in the season, but playing Baltimore ATS in the first half is an automatic play at this point.
PREDICTION: Baltimore first half -6 (-103)
Giants vs Ravens Betting Card
- Baltimore -11 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- Baltimore first half -6 (-103)
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