Two of the most historically rich franchises go head-to-head on Monday Night Football when the New York Giants play the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.
With New York’s inconsistent play at QB and Pittsburgh’s newfound identity with Russell Wilson behind center, I’m expecting Mike Tomlin’s team to shine in my Giants vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Giants vs Steelers MNF props
Harris Over 61.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Singletary Under 31.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)- Nabers Over 6.5 receptions (+116 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Giants vs Steelers MNF props
Prop bet #1: Najee Harris Over 61.5 rushing yards
It appears Najee Harris may finally be playing up to his Pro Bowl potential. The former first-round pick is 10th in the NFL in rushing yards (478) and averaging his most rushing yards per game since his rookie year (68.3).
Harris has been at his best as of late, too. He’s topped 100 yards in back-to-back games while carrying the rock 35 times for 208 yards and two scores.
Arthur Smith’s offense is starting to click for the 26-year-old, and having Wilson behind center is only helping his cause. For as dynamic as Justin Fields is, defenses could key in on Harris before.
This season, Harris has run into eight-plus-man boxes at the 12th-highest clip among running backs with at least 80 carries (17.09%), per Next Gen Stats.
Now, opponents need to respect the pass a little more, especially after how well Wilson played last week on Sunday Night Football. And the Giants’ defense has struggled to stop the run this season.
New York allows the eighth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (138.1) and ranks 19th in EPA per rush on defense. Last week, Saquon Barkley popped off for 176 on just 17 carries against Shane Bowen’s defense.
Missed tackles have been a problem for the New York Giants, with 58 so far this season, per PFF. That will likely continue to be an issue against Harris, who ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yards after contact (362) and third in missed tackles forced (30).
He’s poised to rush for Over this number for the sixth time in eight games this season.
Prop bet #2: Devin Singletary Under 31.5 rushing yards
There’s a handful of reasons Devin Singletary will struggle to surpass this number. First of all, Giants All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas is out for the season, and this offensive line already ranks third-worst in the NFL in run blocking by PFF.
That alone would make it difficult for Singletary, but then throw in this matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers front seven, and it gets that much harder. Pittsburgh’s defense is third in the NFL in EPA per rush and allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league (81.0).
It’s not as if Pittsburgh has been playing terrible running backs, either. This defense held Breece Hall, JK Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, and Bijan Robinson to an average of just 59.5 rushing yards. All four of those backs are Top 25 in the NFL in rushing yards this season.
Singletary, who has missed two games with injuries, has just 239 rushing yards in five games (47.8 per game). And while he’s been solid, he hasn’t been good enough to overcome poor blocking — averaging just the 31st-most yards per carry after contact in the league (3.16).
In Singletary’s return from injury last week, he had just five carries for 18 yards and forced zero missed tackles. He ended up playing only 21% of the Giants’ offensive snaps in that matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles.
That’s because rookie Tyron Tracy has proven to be the more effective back for Brian Daboll. He played 67% of the snaps against the Eagles.
With Singletary sharing the backfield, the Giants' offensive line problems, and the Steelers’ ferocious defense, the veteran running back is going to have a tough time reaching this number.
Prop bet #3: Malik Nabers Over 6.5 receptions
He may be a rookie, but it's clear that Malik Nabers is already the best offensive player the Giants have, and Daboll clearly knows it.
Nabers has had 7+ targets in every game this season, and that includes a stretch of double-digit targets from Weeks 2-4. He then missed the Giants’ Week 5 and 6 games with a concussion before returning to face the Eagles last week.
Even returning to the field, New York didn’t shy away from trying to get him the ball. While he only had four receptions for 41 yards, he still had eight targets.
With the rust of missing two games no longer a factor, I'd expect Daboll to feature his young star early and often. Nabers is eighth in the NFL in receptions (39), despite playing fewer games than every pass catcher in the Top 17.
He’s also sixth in targets (60) and caught 8+ passes in the three games prior to his concussion. While Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, it’s ranked outside of the Top 10 in EPA per dropback (14th) and gave up Over 6.5 receptions to a star rookie just two weeks ago when Brock Bowers caught nine passes against the Steelers.
With the first-round pick out of LSU 13th in the NFL in yards per route run (2.25), 11th in first down receptions (23), and 32nd in QB rating when targeted (104.3), expect Daniel Jones to go his way frequently.
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