Houston Texans Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Houston, We Still Have a Problem

The Houston Texans bring up the rear in the NFL again in 2022 but are at least out from under the heavy shadow of Deshaun Watson’s drama… sort of.

The Texans’ NFL odds peg them as the worst team in the league, dwelling on the bottom of the futures markets and lurching into 2022 with a season win total of 4.5 (Under -110). Houston is under promoted head coach Lovie Smith and promoted offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, who have fewer quality ingredients than a college kid’s refrigerator.

Considering the differences in the team’s lookahead lines from book to book, no one – not even the all-seeing oddsmakers – know what the hell is happening in Houston. Could that leave some contrarian value on the table? We take a look in our Houston Texans 2022 betting preview.

Houston Texans futures odds

Best futures bet: Over 4.5 wins (-110)

The Texans won four games in 2021 and three came inside the division. Given some consistency to the coaching promotions, Houston isn’t exactly starting from scratch – especially when it comes to the maturation of quarterback Davis Mills alongside Hamilton, who was the QB coach last year. 

Mills played well considering he was a rookie starter thrust into action with a terrible team around him. The supporting cast isn’t much better in Year 2, but the Texans’ OK offensive line and commitment to generating something on the ground should take pressure off the second-year passer.

Let’s say Houston splits the AFC South schedule again. From there, the team has winnable matchups at Chicago, at New York and vs. Washington (if it can shake its non-conference curse). Given that their 2022 strength of schedule sits 19th and my QB SOS ranks the Texans’ opposing passers 26th, five wins isn’t a stretch for the patchwork Texans.

Houston Texans betting overview

What will win bets: Plenty of points

This was our same pro for betting Houston last season, with the Texans getting plenty of points from the oddsmakers week-to-week. They went 8-9 ATS in 2021 and caught double-digit dog spreads in 11 of their 17 games (5-6 ATS as DD dogs). 

This year’s lookahead lines are a little less forgiving, with Houston catching 10 or more points in only three games but those spreads will puff up like me at the seafood buffet once the rubber hits the road and public perception sours (even more) on the Texans. 

Houston showed fight inside NRG Stadium with a 5-4 ATS clip and a -7.4 average margin (compared to -13.1 on the road) while Mills owned a passer rating of 109.6 at home (sixth best in NFL). Football bettors will want to pick their spots when it comes to the Texans, using that extra padding of points to not necessarily “bet on” the Texans but more “bet against” whichever team stinks to high hell heading into a game with Houston.

What will lose bets: Lack of talent

That’s kind of a catch-all reason. It’s not an absolute void of talent in Houston, as there are some bright prospects helping form the foundation of this franchise after it was burnt to the ground in the wake of the Watson saga, but those standouts are few a far between.

As a unit, Houston is outmatched on both sides of the ball most weeks and the roster has all the depth of a mud puddle in the middle of the Texas summer, meaning injuries to key starters leave gaping cracks in the Texans’ schemes. 

This team is leaning on young guys to grow up fast, which can be tough when you’re getting your ass waxed every Sunday. And even with plenty of positives in place for Mills, regression is the monster under the bed for most second-year QBs. Smith held an intense OTA session this summer but how long can he crank it up to 11 before that style of motivation becomes white noise as losses stack up?

Houston Texans game-by-game odds

Just like last year’s lookahead lines, the Texans are point spread underdogs in every single game in 2022, depending on where you bet. Some books have a Week 17 home stand with Jacksonville as a pick’em while others have Houston +1. The Week 13 home stand versus Cleveland (and possibly Watson) is OTB at this time but the Browns will be road chalk regardless of QB.

The Texans are +275 frontrunners to boast the fewest wins in the NFL in 2022 and pay +1,600 to go a winless 0-17, which is pretty much what the point spreads are saying. Houston is getting a touchdown or more in nine contests and underdogs of +7 or higher finished 19-82 SU and 44-54-3 ATS last season (Houston went 2-11 SU and 6-7 ATS as a TD-plus pup).

There are some notable line differences out there if you want to shop around, including a few around key numbers, showing how bookies are split on their ratings of Houston in 2022: +3 to +3.5 at Chicago in Week 3, +5.5 to +6 vs. Tennessee in Week 9, +3 to +4 at N.Y. Giants in Week 10, +7 to +8 at Miami in Week 12, +8 to +10 at Dallas in Week 14, and +7.5 to +10 at Indianapolis in Week 10.

Houston Texans Pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

This is probably still the league's worst roster, and an uninspiring coaching change to combine with that is not a recipe for success.

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Houston Texans early season forecast

The Texans get the first crack at the Matt Ryan-led Colts in Week 1, with Indianapolis handing over as many at eight points. Houston was as low as +7.5 and as high as +8 for this opening game and went 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against divisional rivals in 2021.

The total for this AFC South showdown is a low 44 points, with Indy leaning into the ground game and an opportunistic defense. Houston’s top priority on offense is establishing anything with the rush, so expect Hamilton to dial up the handoffs and keep Mills out of trouble against a Colts D that topped the league in takeaways.

Week 2 sends Houston (+10.5) up the mountain to play the Denver Broncos and new QB Russell Wilson. A trip to the thin air of Mile High is always a challenge but even more so early in the schedule when teams are still working their way into game shape. That’s a big reason why Denver is a sterling 19-3 SU and 14-4-4 ATS in home openers since 2000. 

The Windy City and Smith’s long-time home awaits in Week 3 with the Texans between +3 and +3.5 at Chicago. The Bears open vs. San Francisco and at Green Bay, so there’s a good chance we have a “someone’s 'O' has got to go” matchup in late September. This total is at 42.5 points – the third sub-45-point number for Houston to start the year. The Texans finished 2-6 O/U as visitors in 2021, averaging a league-low 0.206 points per play away from home.

Houston Texans spot bet

Week 17: vs. Jacksonville (+1)

Anyone taking a swing on the Over 4.5 wins for the Texans will be watching this game closely. Luckily, the schedule gods have handed Houston a gem of a situational spot over the visiting Jaguars, who Houston swept SU and ATS last season. 

Jacksonville will close out a grueling late-season stretch in NRG Stadium on January 1, playing four road games in five weeks between Week 13 and Week 17. This matchup with Houston will also be the second of back-to-back roadies for the Jags.

While Jacksonville does get an extended break after visiting the Jets on Thursday night in Week 16, this game takes place on New Year’s Day. Depending on how the Jaguars' season trickles down, some guys could be worse for wear in this 1 p.m. ET kickoff after ringing in 2023 “Houstatlantavegas” style.

Houston Texans totals tip

The Texans have some tiny totals this season in comparison to the offensive explosion happening across the league. Houston has nine numbers hanging below 45 points in 2022 after going 8-9 Over/Under in 2021 with Mills and Tyrod Taylor sharing snaps.

Hamilton is dedicated to grinding out a ground game from a mishmash of running backs and an injury-prone offensive line. Expect a surplus of handoffs and a methodical pace on offense, at least in the opening few games as the Texans attempt to fine-tune that rushing playbook. 

Defensively, Houston has a disruptive secondary (17 INTs in 2021) with the addition of Derek Stingley Jr. and is trying to limit the big plays through the air after ranking 30th in yards allowed per completion and giving up 55 passing plays of 20 yards or more. The Texans will try to keep more in front of them which could lead to more drawn-out drives from opposing offenses.

As mentioned, Houston is a double-digit dog in three games already and could tick up to +10 or higher as things go south over the course of the calendar. NFL games with double-digit spreads have produced a 97-140-1 O/U count since 2015 (59% Unders) and the Texans were 4-6 O/U when getting +10 or more last year.

Star power: Brandin Cooks props

Best prop: Over 950.5 receiving yards (-105)

Brandin Cooks is the lone superstar on this offense and has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in his first two seasons with Houston, including 90 grabs on 134 targets for 1,037 yards in 2021. 

In fact, Cooks has produced pretty much wherever he goes and regardless of the quality of QB, catching passes from Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Deshaun Watson as well as Jared Goff, Taylor, and Mills. He’s topped 1,000 yards receiving in six of his eight years in the pros, with the other two seasons limited to 10 and 14 games.

Even with Houston’s commitment to creating a ground game, Cooks is going to see his share of targets. He finished 15th in receptions in 2021 and doesn’t have much competition behind him on the depth chart, with rookie WR John Metchie III rehabbing. Houston does have some big red-zone targets in Nico Collins and TE Brevin Jordan, so we’ll steer clear of Cooks’ TD total. But we like him to challenge the 1K mark again in 2022.

Houston Texans trend to know

Houston’s non-conference woes continued in 2021, with the team going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against NFC competition. This suckfest isn’t just reserved for the post-Watson Texans either. Since 2018, the Texans have had major trouble when venturing beyond the boundaries of the AFC, owning a 5-12 SU mark and 4-12-1 ATS record in non-conference games. 

This year, however, the AFC South saddles up next to the NFC East, which could offer the Texans some winnable non-conference chances versus the likes of the Giants and Commanders as well as a trip to play the Bears.

Houston's non-conference games

• Week 3 @ Chicago (+3.5)
• Week 9 vs. Philadelphia (+6.5)
• Week 10 @ N.Y. Giants (+4)
• Week 11 vs. Washington (+3)
• Week 14 @ Dallas (+10)

Pages related to this topic