Just like the past decade of DC Comics movies, the Houston Texans’ 2022 season never existed.
Sure, there are memory traces of Ben Affleck in the Batman suit that bubble up amidst a fever dream, much like Lovie Smith’s cup of coffee in Houston. But that never really happened, right?
As far as James Gunn and NFL bettors are concerned, they didn’t.
There’s not much we can take from Houston’s lost season that applies to handicapping the 2023 odds and NFL futures. The Texans were trying to air out the stink of Deshaun Watson and slapped Smith in the head coach role like a piece of duct tape over a hole in a screen door.
This season sees the Texans taking their first steps forward in a while. A new coaching staff headlined by HC DeMeco Ryans and new faces of the franchise in rookies C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson are positive but aren’t prompting a 180 from Houston’s preseason NFL odds.
Could the Texans be worth a wager during the season? I find out in my 2023 Houston Texans NFL betting preview.
Houston Texans futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +20,000 | +18,000 | +20,000 |
| Win conference | +10,000 | +8,500 | +10,000 |
| Win division | +800 | +1,000 | +850 |
| Make playoffs | +475 | +520 | +650 |
| O6.5 wins | +110 | +116 | +120 |
| U6.5 wins | -130 | -142 | -140 |
Best futures bet: Third in AFC South (+200 at DraftKings)
There are three bad teams in the AFC South and I’m not sure Houston is the worst. At least the Texans are trying in 2023.
My NFL power ratings do have Houston below Tennessee and Indianapolis, but the margin is pretty thin. The look-ahead lines actually have the Texans favored in more games than the Colts, and the Titans’ schedule has more slippery situational spots.
Houston tends to play the AFC South tough, at least when compared to games outside of that group. The team is 6-5-1 straight up and 8-4 against the spread vs. those rivals compared to 1-21 SU and 8-13-1 ATS in non-divisional contests the past two seasons.
The Jaguars are the class of this downtrodden division, but I believe the Texans can beat out one of those foes and avoid a second straight season circling the AFC South's drain.
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Houston Texans betting overview
What will win bets: Public perception
Look at all those points…
Houston is an underdog in 13 games with one outing tabbed as a pick’em. Bookies have it getting more than a field goal (+3.5 or higher) in 10 of those tilts and a touchdown or more in four.
As mentioned, you can’t put too much weight into what went on in Houston last season. People will cling to the team’s 3-13-1 record and expect more of the same this season. Let’s not forget this club was 8-8-1 ATS in those outings.
If there’s one positive we can peel from the bottom of the garbage can that was the 2022 Texans, it’s that the team played in 10 one-score games (eight points or less) and while they finished just 4-6 SU in those close contests, they managed to come away with a 7-2-1 ATS mark.
It helped that Houston was getting Costco-sized points in plenty of those games. Those padded point spreads are back again in 2023 and the schedule serves up some situational softballs for the Texans too (see schedule below).
What will lose bets: Passing offense
Looking at those long spreads for the Texans and this team is expected to be playing from behind most weeks. Not a great spot for a rookie quarterback and a receiving corps about as sharp as kindergarten safety scissors.
C.J. Stroud checks a lot of the QB boxes you want in the modern passing game. However, not only is he learning a brand-new pro playbook under coordinator Bobby Slowik, but he doesn’t really have a capable pass catcher to lean on like some first-year QBs. As of right now, his best option is TE addition Dalton Schultz.
The offensive line is better than the preseason polls say, with solid anchors in Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, and Shaq Mason. But even the soundest pass protectors will buckle against blitz-heavy defenses knowing a trailing Houston team has no choice but to pass the ball.
Slowik’s 49ers-inspired offense implements zone blocking schemes and quick hits, which is simple for a rookie QB but leaves the Texans with little threat of a deep ball. San Francisco ran this to perfection with one of the more talented receiving corps in the NFL. Houston could have the worst WR group in 2023.
The early-bird totals tell the story, with the Texans drawing an average Over/Under number of 40 points, and most of those tallies aren’t coming from Houston.
Houston Texans 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Baltimore Ravens |
+9.5 |
| 2 | vs  Indianapolis Colts |
-1 |
| 3 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
+7 |
| 4 | vs  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+3.5 |
| 5 | @  Atlanta Falcons |
+3 |
| 6 | vs  New Orleans Saints |
+3 |
| 7 | BYE | |
| 8 | @  Carolina Panthers |
+3 |
| 9 | vs  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-1 |
| 10 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+9.5 |
| 11 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-2.5 |
| 12 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars |
+4.5 |
| 13 | vs  Denver Broncos |
+4 |
| 14 | @  New York Jets |
+8.5 |
| 15 | @  Tennessee Titans |
+3 |
| 16 | vs  Cleveland Browns |
+4 |
| 17 | vs Tennessee Titans |
+1 |
| 18 | @ Indianapolis Colts |
+1.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
Preseason projections aren’t great for Houston, with a season win total shaded to Under 6.5 victories and the look-ahead lines setting the Texans as favorites in only three outings with one other game at a pick’em.
My NFL power ratings reflect those numbers, placing Houston 27th overall (29.52/100) and behind rivals Indianapolis in 26th (30.45) and Tennessee in 24th (38.23). But one thing that the Texans do have going for them is a much easier schedule than most. Houston’s slate sits 28th in strength of schedule polls and is void of any real situational squeezes.
It plays back-to-back road games only once (Week 14 and Week 15), avoids the tricky three-in-four road spot, has a stretch of three home games in a row from Week 11 to Week 13, and finishes with five of the final eight outings inside NRG Stadium. Even the Week 7 bye comes at an ideal time for this young core to make adjustments after two months of football.
The early schedule could provide pop for Houston bettors with multiple situational boosts. They benefit from a potential look-ahead spot from the Ravens (who are running a new offense) in Week 1 (+9.5) with Baltimore visiting Cincinnati in Week 2. They catch Jacksonville looking ahead to its extended UK trip in Week 3 (+7). And, Houston hosts New Orleans for the Saints’ second of back-to-back road games and their fourth road stop in five weeks in Week 6 (+3).
Houston Texans schedule spot bet
Week 3: @ Jaguars
We hinted at this spot above, with the Jaguars hosting their divisional rivals before making a two-week trip to London to play international games in Week 4 and Week 5.
The logistics of that venture — as well as the off-field planning for players, coaches, and staff — serve as a massive distraction and line up a possible look-ahead, especially with Jacksonville laying a touchdown in this AFC South showdown.
On top of that, a letdown also looms for the Jags, who get to discover their place in the universe when they host the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2.
Good or bad, the Texans have been a thorn in the side of Jacksonville for a while now. They’re 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS versus the Jags since 2018. Also noted, divisional underdogs of a touchdown or more went 17-7 ATS in 2022 (71%).
So, there’s that.
Star power: C.J. Stroud props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +15,000 | +15,000 | +15,000 |
| OROY | +850 | +900 | +650 |
| Passing leader | +8,000 | +8,000 | +8,000 |
| Pass TD leader | +8,000 | +6,000 | +9,000 |
| O17.5 pass TD | -105 | -112 | +120* |
| U17.5 pass TD | -115 | -112 | -150* |
| Pass yards total | 3,050.5 | 3,075.5 | 3,140.5 |
*Pass TD total is 19.5 at Caesars
Best prop: Over 3,050.5 passing yards (-110)
The buzz out of minicamp was very positive for Stroud with the staff gushing about how far ahead of schedule the No. 2 overall pick was. His preseason debut left more to be desired, going 2-for-4 with an interception vs. New England.
Stroud has a strong arm, is very athletic, and will benefit from a sturdy offensive line, a potent running game with RB Dameon Pierce, and a lot of pre-snap motion from Slowik’s playbook. He’ll have more than enough pass attempts to threaten his yardage prop in 2023, considering the Texans will trail in many of their games.
Most player projections sat on the Over side of his passing yards prop, with a consensus number just beyond 3,200 yards. That would put him on par with the likes of Daniel Jones in 2022, another mobile QB that suffered through a shallow pool of targets.
Stroud does see tough defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh early on but also faces Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Atlanta — all of which rank 24th or worse in defensive preseason polls — in the opening five games. He could earn some confidence — and passing yardage — against those weaker stop units.
Houston Texans betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
With a rookie QB in CJ Stroud under center, RB Dameon Pierce might be asked to do even more for an offense that lacks any talent at receiver. Yes, the game script will play a big factor for a team that’s favored by just 1.5 points at home vs. the Cardinals, but Pierce was 69 yards short of 1,000 yards on the ground last year and the Texans have committed to the O-line with re-upping LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Tytus Howard while bringing in RG Shaq Mason. Having a defensive head coach also doesn’t hurt the team’s system.
New OC Bobby Slowik expects Pierce to hit the 1,000-yard mark this year and paying +135 for Pierce to do it (bet365), I’m buying in as well. Pierce missed four games last year and Houston was already the worst rushing team in football in EPA/rush in 2022. Any improvement and a full season of good health will only benefit Pierce who finished fourth in broken tackles despite playing just 14 games last year. Taking pressure off of Stroud with the run game sounds like a great idea when holding onto a Pierce 1,000-yard rushing ticket for +135.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
If there was ever a season for the revolving door of head coaches and starting quarterbacks to come to an end in Houston, this is it. The AFC South is the worst division in football, but does Houston have enough talent to even go from "awful" to "below average"? Probably not.
Like many early-pick QBs, C.J. Stroud isn’t exactly being set up to succeed in his rookie season. He’ll play behind a poor offensive line and probably has the worst group of receivers in the NFL to throw to. As a result, I expect Houston to once again be a punching bag for a lot of teams looking to pick up an easy win.
While they appear to be headed in the right direction and are digging out of a rebuild, they have a long way to go. Even with a light schedule, their 6.5 win total is too high and I like the value in a last-place division finish at +145.
Houston Texans trend to know
Given the overhaul in the coaching staff and roster, it’s tough to find a trend that sticks to the 2023 Texans. However, there is one that rears its ugly head when the team ventures beyond the waters of the AFC.
Houston doesn’t have a great history versus the NFC, going 5-17 SU and 6-13-3 ATS in non-conference contests since 2018. That continued in 2022 with the Texans going winless in five games opposite NFC foes with a 2-2-1 mark ATS.
Houston draws the NFC South in non-conference play along with a solo outing versus Arizona. Matchups with the Buccaneers and Cardinals are two of the three games in which the Texans are point-spread favorites this season.
Houston Texans non-conference games
- Week 5 @ Falcons (+4)
- Week 6 vs. Saints (+3)
- Week 8 @ Panthers (+3)
- Week 9 vs. Buccaneers (-2.5)
- Week 11 vs. Cardinals (-3)
