The Indianapolis Colts are trying to do a CTRL+V of the Philadelphia Eagles in the AFC while also deleting the damage done by a disastrous 2022.
They’ve hired former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their head coach and drafted Jalen Hurts' clone Anthony Richardson at quarterback with the No. 4 pick. But unlike Philly, Steichen is lacking the overall talent to turn this wild horse around in just a single season.
Most of the Colts’ top assets are another year older and coming off either a down season in performance or injury-shortened efforts. Life in the soft AFC South could help the transition as does a schedule ranked 28th in SOS, featuring a very easy entry into 2023.
Strip it all down and this is a bottom-tier team led by a rookie head coach with a rookie QB at the helm. What could go wrong with their NFL futures and Super Bowl odds?
The Horseshoe will need all the luck they can get when it comes to NFL odds. Here’s my 2023 Indianapolis Colts NFL betting preview.
Indianapolis Colts futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +15,000 | +10,000 | +12,500 |
| Win conference | +7,000 | +6,500 | +8,000 |
| Win division | +600 | +550 | +700 |
| Make playoffs | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| O6.5 wins | -120 | -118 | -114 |
| U6.5 wins | +100 | -104 | -105 |
Best futures bet: Over 2.5 divisional wins (-150 at DraftKings)
This is as much a bet on the Colts as it is a bet against the rest of the AFC South.
Jacksonville is the big cat in the division but is far from invincible, especially with some tough schedule spots along the way — like hosting Indianapolis immediately after two weeks in London in Week 6.
Houston and Tennessee could also easily sink to the bottom of this toilet, especially with the Titans sandwiching a road game against the Colts between a battle with Cincinnati and a UK trip to play Baltimore.
This divisional win total could come down to a Week 18 “tank-off” with the Texans, which will be Indy’s second straight home game and third home stand in four weeks. The early odds have the Colts as 1.5-point favorites — one of just two games in which Indianapolis is laying points.
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Indianapolis Colts betting overview
What will win bets: Trenches
The cornerstone of Steichen’s offense in Philadelphia was one of the best offensive lines in the business. On paper, the Colts have one of those.
This high-priced pass protection unit underperformed in 2022, ranking 28th at Football Outsiders and allowing 60 sacks on the season — 38 of those sending Matt Ryan to the announcers’ booth. But the foundation is still sound.
Standouts Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith are back and the team added depth on the O-line this offseason. The group also has a new coach in Tony Sparano Jr., and he’s working hard to stress the little things and bring an even tighter cohesion to a core that’s been together for five seasons.
Before last year, Indianapolis routinely ranked among the top lines in adjusted sack rate, but those efforts were wasted on a carousel of incapable quarterbacks in the wake of Andrew Luck’s departure.
On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis' defensive line doesn't get nearly the credit it deserves and could be credited for keeping defensive coordinator Gus Bradley around for another season.
The Colts' front was great against the run, ranking in the Top 5 in stuff rate and the Top 10 in EPA allowed per handoff. The defense also finished with 44 total sacks despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate.
The D-line does take a hit with the departure of sack leader Yannick Ngakoue (9.5 sacks in 2022), but five other linemen finished with 3.5 sacks or more last season, and Indy also added defensive end Samson Ebukam from the 49ers.
What makes this all the more impressive is that the Colts' stop unit was abandoned by the offense most weeks and still held eight opponents to 20 points or less.
What will lose bets: Growing pains and actual pains
A new head coach, a new system, and a rookie quarterback with only 13 NCAA starts set up a steep learning curve for the Colts' offense in 2023.
Anthony Richardson is a tremendous athlete and we’ve seen guys like that flourish early in their career before the game catches up. However, he’s more raw than all-you-can-eat “Sashimi Saturdays” at your local sushi joint.
The pillars of this franchise started to crumble in 2022. The once-sturdy offensive line was bullied for its worst season in a while, and running back Jonathan Taylor is not the same dude who led the NFL in rushing in 2021. The defense also lost corner Stephon Gilmore to free agency, and linebacker Shaquille Leonard’s back is about as stable as team owner Jim Irsay.
I’m of the belief that if Luck had stuck around, Indianapolis would have at least played in one Super Bowl before the group aged out. Instead, the Colts got a raw deal and wasted that roster on a series of shit QBs.
Bettors will want to take a deep sniff of Indy in 2023 to make sure it’s not past its expiry date.
Indianapolis Colts 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Jacksonville Jaguars |
+3.5 |
| 2 | @  Houston Texans |
+1 |
| 3 | @  Baltimore Ravens |
+7.5 |
| 4 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
+1 |
| 5 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
-1 |
| 6 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
+6.5 |
| 7 | vs  Cleveland Browns |
+3 |
| 8 | vs  New Orleans Saints |
+1.5 |
| 9 | @  Carolina Panthers |
+2.5 |
| 10 | @  New England Patriots |
+4 |
| 11 | BYE | |
| 12 | vs  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-1 |
| 13 | @ Tennessee Titans |
+2.5 |
| 14 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+9 |
| 15 | vs  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+2.5 |
| 16 | @  Atlanta Falcons |
+3 |
| 17 | vs  Las Vegas Raiders |
+2 |
| 18 | vs Houston Texans |
-1.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The Colts are among about half a dozen NFL teams set as favorites in two or fewer games in 2023, with Indianapolis giving the points in just two outings with three other games pegged as pick’ems. Indianapolis is an underdog of +3.5 or higher in six games.
The season win total is at 6.5 with the Over juiced as high as -130. While the strength of schedule says Indianapolis gets the fourth easiest slate in 2023, there are some snags along the way. The Week 10 trip to play New England in Germany will be the second straight travel game for the Colts after visiting Carolina in Week 9. They also play three roadies in four weeks from Week 13 to Week 16.
My NFL power ratings placed the Colts at No. 26 (30.45/100), which is just behind Tennessee (38.23) and slightly ahead of Houston (29.52). That’s the big question: who’s playing for second place in the AFC South?
Indianapolis doesn’t have to wait long to measure itself against the Jaguars, hosting the division favorite in Week 1. Early odds have the Colts getting between +3.5 and +4, while my ratings produced a projected spread of +8.5 before sanding down the edges for divisional rivalries. This one should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.
The team’s totals are tempered due to the mystery surrounding Steichen’s offense, with an average Over/Under number of 41 points and five totals south of 40. His playbook was on the quicker end during his time in Philadelphia, especially in first halves.
The 2023 slate throws nine defenses ranked 21st or worst in the preseason polls at the Colts, including four of those units in the first five games.
Indianapolis Colts schedule spot bet
Week 4: VS Los Angeles Rams
The Colts catch the Rams in a rough schedule spot in Week 4. Los Angeles is not only playing back-to-back road games and its third away tilt in four weeks, but it’s doing so on a short turnaround after a Monday Night Football appearance in Week 3.
There are also dashes of look-ahead and letdown spots sprinkled into this tasty situational broth, coming off a primetime clash at Cincinnati and hosting the NFC champion Eagles in Week 5. That spikey spot has books on the fence, tagging this one as a toss-up (PK).
My NFL ratings actually have Indianapolis laying just shy of -2 before any adjustments for the Rams’ rotten sked. The Colts went 0-5 straight up and 2-3 against the spread versus NFC foes last year, but were 12-4-1 ATS (73.5%) in non-conference games in the four seasons prior.
Star power: Michael Pittman Jr. props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | OTB | OTB | +50,000 |
| OPOY | +13,000 | +20,000 | +9,000 |
| Receiving yards leader | +7,000 | +7,000 | +6,000 |
| Rec TD leader | +6,000 | +10,000 | +6,000 |
| O4.5 Rec TD | +125 | +108 | +110 |
| U4.5 Rec TD | -145 | -136 | -140 |
| Rec yards total | 800.5 | 800.5 | 800.5 |
Best prop: Over 800.5 receiving yards (-110)
Michael Pittman Jr. is the unquestioned star of this offense and has produced despite the game of musical chairs played under center. He caught 88 balls for 1,082 yards in 2021 and had 99 catches for 925 yards last season.
With a new playbook and rookie passer, his yardage totals are tame compared to his recent output. Pittman has been limited with a hip injury during camp, so his chemistry with Richardson and this new offense could be behind schedule. On top of that, being the Colts’ lone WR threat, he’ll draw constant double teams in 2023.
However, the look-ahead lines set up a script with Indianapolis playing from behind most weeks, which means the Colts have little choice but to throw the ball. At 6-foot-4 and 220-plus, he can bully smaller defenders for contested catches and Indy does have some speedier receivers around him to spread the coverage.
Player projections are up and down for Pittman, but almost all books have him totaling more than 800 yards receiving. The consensus forecast is set at 892 yards on 76 receptions — just a bit above his career average of 11.1 yards per catch.
Someone’s got to catch the ball in Indy. It might as well be Pittman.
Indianapolis Colts betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
A new QB and new OC turned HC will call the plays for a roster that possesses the most overrated offensive line and a lack of skilled position pass-catchers. They also lost top corner Stephon Gilmore to Dallas and waived Isaiah Rodgers for gambling.
A lot could go wrong on both sides of the ball for the Colts this year. Their range of potential outcomes is higher than almost every team in football, as they aren't favored by more than 1.5 points all season while also maintaining one of the easiest schedules in the league.
But hey. It can’t be worse than last year... right?
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
After being one of the bigger disappointments (and embarrassments) during the 2022 season, the Colts enter this season as a wild card with sleeper potential. The team has a lot of question marks, but one certainty is that they absolutely love their rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Many were surprised to see him named as the Week 1 starter, but new head coach Shane Steichen is clearly confident in the 21-year-old.
A pretty obvious correlation can be made to Jalen Hurts, who became an unexpected superstar under Steichen during his time with the Eagles, and everything points to the Colts giving Richardson the opportunity to cook right off the bat. That opportunity — combined with Richardson’s raw athletic ability — makes him worthy of an Offensive Rookie of the Year wager at +800.
Indianapolis Colts trend to know
A new era in Indianapolis football can really set the tone if it comes out strong in Week 1. For whatever reason, the Colts have stumbled out of the gate in recent years and haven’t won a season opener since 2013.
That’s right. Indianapolis is 0-8-1 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.
It came ever so close to snapping this skid last year, battling back from a 20-3 hole versus Houston with 17 fourth-quarter points. Ultimately though, Indy wound up kissing its sister in a 20-20 deadlock as a 7-point road favorite.
The 2023 schedule has the Colts hosting Jacksonville in Week 1, with the spread sitting between +3.5 and +4. As mentioned above, my NFL ratings pump out a much bigger number. Given this is a divisional matchup, I think Indy should be more around the +6 or +7 range.
Colts' home opener
- Week 1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
