As a franchise, the Jacksonville Jaguars have seen more peaks and valleys than Twitter stock (or X stock?) since Elon Musk’s rocketship rolled into town.
The Jaguars have sprinkled in double-digit win seasons amidst extended periods of piss-poor football during their nearly three decades of existence, hitting rock bottom with the Urban Meyer mess in 2021.
There was nowhere to go but up under head coach Doug Pederson, and right on cue, Jacksonville started its ascent in the back half of the 2022 schedule.
After stumbling out of the blocks with a 3-7 record both straight up and against the spread in the first 10 games, the Jags would win six of their last seven outings (5-2 ATS) against some tough teams. That 9-8 record was ultimately good enough for a playoff spot.
NFL futures are confident the Jaguars can get to that double-digit win summit in 2023. The season win total is a juicy Over 9.5 wins with some books at 10 victories, and NFL odds have Jacksonville laying points in a whopping 13 games.
Can the Jags plant their flag among the AFC's best in the Super Bowl odds, or are they about to take another tumble down the mountain? I ride those ups and downs in my 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL betting preview.
Jacksonville Jaguars futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +3,000 | +2,800 | +2,800 |
| Win conference | +1,400 | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Win division | -155 | -155 | -175 |
| Make playoffs | -195 | -200 | -210 |
| O9.5 wins | -140 | -144 | +105* |
| U9.5 wins | +120 | +118 | -125* |
*Over/Under total is 10.0 at Caesars
Best futures bet: Jaguars to win the AFC South (-155 at DraftKings)
The best thing going for the Jaguars in 2023 is the three teams behind them in the AFC South.
Two of those division foes have a rookie quarterback as their starter, and Titans veteran Ryan Tannehill is one bad game/hit away from a third rookie QB in the division.
The win totals for those three rivals sit between 6.5 and 7.5, and Houston, Tennessee, and Indianapolis are favorites in a collective nine games all season. Jacksonville is pegged as the chalk in 13 outings with one other at a pick’em.
Even if Jacksonville is exposed against the tougher teams on the slate — Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore — there’s still enough low-hanging fruit for the Jaguars to flirt with 10 wins and earn just their second division title since 2002.
Outside of those elite passers on the Jags’ schedule, take a look at the rest of the current QBs standing in their way: three rookies, three second-year passers, and a series of castoff QBs in Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and whatever Tannehill has left in the tank.
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Jacksonville Jaguars betting overview
What will win bets: Offense
It took time for the Jaguars to shake the stink of Meyer and adapt to coach Pederson in 2022.
This offense especially sputtered early on, ranking middle of the road in DVOA at Football Outsiders in the first eight weeks while averaging just over 21 points in those games. Things started moving come November, and the Jaguars owned the ninth-highest EPA per play and a DVOA rating of seventh in those closing nine contests.
Offensive coordinator Press Taylor promises growth from a very talented group of skill players this year, and the opening chunk of the schedule should foster that development facing defenses ranked 27th, 16th, 26th, and 24th in preseason polls in the first four games.
QB Trevor Lawrence (who is a year behind schedule due to the Meyer mess), started playing like a No. 1 overall selection down the stretch and now has a potential No. 1 wide receiver in Calvin Ridley at his disposal.
Lawrence also has capable weapons in tight end Evan Engram, slot Christian Kirk, beefy wideout Zay Jones, and dual-threat running back Travis Etienne Jr., who rushed for 1,125 yards and is just as skilled in the catch-and-run game.
Jacksonville’s look-ahead totals have an average Over/Under of 44 points, with five of those numbers above 45 points. Given the Jaguars are favorites in most of those games — sizable chalk in some — the bulk of those projected points are coming from this offense.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Jags are good at causing chaos, with the fourth-highest pressure rate on passers (25.1%) and 27 total takeaways (tied for fourth) in 2022. They recorded just 35 total sacks but led the NFL in QB hits with 77.
When they couldn’t make those game-changing plays, they were getting run down by rival teams and unable to get opponents off the field. Jacksonville owned a miserable third down rate of 43.78% — fourth-worst in the league — and watched opponents score touchdowns on 61.67% of their trips to the red zone.
The defense often came out flat and allowed an average of 13 points in the first half, which put bettors behind the eight ball before the Jaguars could crack their second beer of the Sunday. It showed in the Jags’ derivative markets, with the team going 8-11 against the first-half spread and 11-7-1 Over/Under on the 1H totals.
Jacksonville didn’t do much to improve for 2023 and is leaning on a slew of young talent to take the next step. It is kicking the tires on free agent pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney as of this writing, which would help turn all that pass pressure into actual sacks.
As it stands, preseason polls have the Jaguars' defense ranked as bad as 25th in the NFL, but there’s a high ceiling considering the draft stock that has been invested in the front seven in recent years.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
-3.5 |
| 2 | vs  Kansas City Chiefs |
+3 |
| 3 | vs  Houston Texans |
-7 |
| 4 | vs  Atlanta Falcons |
-4 |
| 5 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+3.5 |
| 6 | vs Indianapolis Colts |
-6.5 |
| 7 | @  New Orleans Saints |
+1 |
| 8 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+1 |
| 9 | BYE | |
| 10 | vs  San Francisco 49ers |
+1 |
| 11 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
-5 |
| 12 | @ Houston Texans |
-4.5 |
| 13 | vs  Cincinnati Bengals |
+1 |
| 14 | @  Cleveland Browns |
+1.5 |
| 15 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
-1 |
| 16 | @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-3.5 |
| 17 | vs  Carolina Panthers |
-5 |
| 18 | @ Tennessee Titans |
-2.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The win total and early-bird odds sing the praises of the Jaguars, but what about the schedule?
Thanks to life in the AFC South – and non-conference crossovers with the gummy NFC South — Jacksonville has the 22nd toughest schedule in the land. The Jaguars are laying the points in 13 of their outings, giving more than a field goal in eight of those contests.
Those factors have manifested themselves into a metric of 67.64/100 in my NFL power ratings, making the Jaguars the No. 6 team overall — but with a notable gap between them and the No. 5 Buffalo Bills (70.59/100).
Jacksonville will get to test its worth in the AFC, facing the three conference foes above it in the ratings — Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo — as well as No. 8 Baltimore. Luckily for Jags backers, those highlighted games (as well as a Week 10 matchup with No. 3 San Francisco) all come at home or on neutral sites in 2023 (they play Buffalo in London in Week 5).
In fact, Jacksonville stays in the UK for two games this fall, hosting Atlanta in Week 4 and the Bills in Week 5. That does set up a ton of travel between Week 4 and Week 8, with the team away from home for four of those five games (at New Orleans for TNF in Week 7 and at Pittsburgh in Week 8).
The Week 1 opener sends the Jags to Indianapolis to play the Colts and rookie passer Anthony Richardson. The betting markets have this spread bobbing between Jacksonville -3.5 and -4, but my ratings project a line closer to a touchdown when you give credit to divisional rivalries.
Jacksonville Jaguars schedule spot bet
Week 7: @ New Orleans
The Jaguars have a two-week stay in London this season, taking on Atlanta and Buffalo in Week 4 and Week 5. Rather than get the standard bye week that usually follows international games, Jacksonville is back home to host the Colts in Week 6.
Things really get hairy in Week 7, with the Jaguars traveling to the Crescent City to play the Saints on Thursday Night Football. That’s a long trip to the UK, a week to get back on a regular clock, and a short turnaround with travel to one of the loudest venues in primetime.
The look-ahead spread has Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite in New Orleans, while my ratings produce a line closer to a pick’em before factoring in the busy situational spot working against the visitor. I could see the Saints as slim favorites in Week 7.
Last season, Pederson’s team went 1-4 SU and ATS against the NFC. The franchise is historically snakebitten in non-conference games, lugging a 5-41 SU record and 10-40 ATS count against NFC foes since 2012.
Star power: Trevor Lawrence props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,800 |
| OPOY | +4,500 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Passing leader | +1,800 | +1,600 | +1,500 |
| Pass TD leader | +3,000 | +2,000 | +3,000 |
| O26.5 pass TD | -110 | -112* | -115 |
| U26.5 pass TD | -110 | -112* | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 4,050.5 | 4,025.5 | 4,050.5 |
*Pass TD total is 25.5 at FanDuel
Best prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 4,025.5 passing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Trevor Lawrence made one of the biggest 180s in football during the 2022 season.
With a brilliant QB mind of Doug Pederson underdoing the damage of Urban Meyer, Lawrence blossomed in the second half of the schedule and lifted the Jags to the fourth-best EPA per dropback from Week 9 onward. His QB rating went from 84.8 to 104.6 in that span.
Lawrence finished with 4,113 passing yards (2,273 in the final nine games), going over his 2022 prop total of 4,000.5 yards. Despite that strong showing in the home stretch, books are placing his 2023 prop total in pretty much the same spot.
Jacksonville will throw the ball more in 2023, expanding on Pederson’s playbook and utilizing one of the more underrated receiving corps — especially if Ridley can be the guy he was in Atlanta. The offensive line was solid at protecting Lawrence last year, finishing third in adjusted sacks rate at Football Outsiders.
Player projections have most forecasts coming in at Over 4,025.5 yards passing for the golden-haired QB, with a consensus of 4,109 yards through the air for T-Law. Jacksonville plays 10 defenses ranked 16th or worse in 2023 and only four stop units inside the Top 10.
Jacksonville Jaguars betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The Calvin Ridley hype has been loud all offseason, but that’s creating some value for Christian Kirk. The underrated receiver formed a great bond with Trevor Lawrence last year, owning a 23% target share with over 75% of those targets coming out of the slot. In fact, Kirk's 22 red zone targets last season ranked fifth in football.
Ridley will take away some of that target share, but he could also play well as a decoy for Kirk in what will be a pass-happy offense. THE BLITZ is projecting 927.50 yards for Kirk and his ceiling is another 1,100-yard season — making his Over 825.5-yard receiving total a solid +EV play.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
They might be the preseason class of the NFL’s weakest division, but I’m not buying the Jaguars as a serious contender as they’re far from a complete team — I don’t see much value in backing them in futures markets, especially their lofty price of -155 to win the AFC South.
While a few easy wins could come from within their divisional matchups, they face a stacked non-divisional schedule that includes the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Bengals, and Ravens... along with games vs. the Steelers, Browns, Saints, and Falcons — none of which will be pushovers. Plus, back-to-back games in London in early October shouldn’t be viewed as a positive either.
While the rebuild was certainly ahead of schedule last season and Trevor Lawrence is climbing up people’s QB rankings, I think we should pump the brakes on the Jags with the schedule stacked against them — I’ll happily take a shot on Under 9.5 wins at +120.
Jacksonville Jaguars trend to know
As good as the Jaguars were towards the end of last season, the team was a betting favorite in only five games. When they did lay the points, Jacksonville went just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The chalk is rare air for this franchise, which now finds itself as a favorite in 13 games in 2023. Hell, the Jags have laid the points in a total of only 19 games over the past five years.
Going back to 2018, Jacksonville is just 6-13 SU and 5-14 ATS as a fave — covering 26% of the time. Make it a favorite in a divisional game and the team faceplants to the tune of 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in that span.
The Jags just so happen to be laying the points — and a lot of them — in all six AFC South showdowns this season.
Jaguars divisional games
- Week 1 @ Indianapolis (-3.5)
- Week 3 vs. Houston (-7)
- Week 6 vs. Indianapolis (-7)
- Week 11 vs. Tennessee (-6)
- Week 12 @ Houston (-4.5)
- Week 18 @ Tennessee (-1.5)
