Jaguars vs Bills Prop Bets: Allen and Diggs Shred Jacksonville

Prop bet #1: Diggs Doing Damage

There were plenty of standout performances as the Buffalo Bills silenced the Miami hype in Week 4, but Stefon Diggs was near the top of the list with 120 yards and three touchdowns while repeatedly shredding the Dolphins’ secondary.

The Bills’ No. 1 receiver caught six of his seven targets that afternoon, and I expect him to get even more looks against a Jacksonville Jaguars' defense that can be vulnerable against the pass. The Jags are allowing 238 passing yards per game through the first four weeks, which puts them in the bottom half of the NFL.

I love the Over on Diggs’ receiving yards at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this weekend. Of his 31 receptions this season, 18 have gone for 10+ yards, and four have picked up 20+ yards. In short, he’s rarely catching checkdowns so he doesn’t need a ton of volume to get his yardage.

The Josh Allen-Diggs connection remains one of the NFL’s best, and it would make sense for the Bills’ game plan to skew slightly more toward the pass, with Jacksonville ranking in the Top 10 for fewest rushing yards allowed per game.

The London stage feels tailor-made for an artist like Diggs, and his route-running brings a new meaning to “mind the gap”, with his ability to create separation for big gains. So often he’s been the man to ignite a Buffalo offense that’s averaged a whopping 41 points over their past three contests.

The history books say the same thing. The last meeting between these teams in November 2021 was a grim 9-6 slugfest — and even in a game featuring so little offense, Diggs ended up with six catches for 85 yards.

He’s had double-digit targets in two of the first three games this year and has topped 100 receiving yards three times already. Diggs will have every chance to blow past this prop line on Sunday.

Stefon Diggs prop: Over 83.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Chucking the pigskin

Continuing the theme of a scorching Buffalo offense, I’m betting on the Bills to dial up some deep shots on Sunday and maximize Josh Allen’s arm strength. It’s a formula that sunk the Dolphins last time out, and the speed of Diggs, Gabe Davis, and James Cook gives Allen multiple electric weapons for big plays.

With a line of 36.5 yards for Allen’s longest completion this weekend, I’m grabbing the Over, which has been a winning ticket in two of Buffalo’s past three outings.

In Week 4, he found Diggs for a 55-yard touchdown and connected with Cook on a 48-yard play. Back in Week 2, he hooked up with Davis for a 40-yard gain, and a week later, he went to Davis again — this time for a 35-yard TD.

Alarming missteps from the Jaguars’ defense make this prop even more appealing. Jacksonville gave up a 68-yard score to Tank Dell and the Houston Texans in Week 3, a 54-yard completion in Week 2, and a 39-yard TD in their season opener.

That’s a concerning trend for Doug Pederson’s men, but a flashing neon sign for Allen. The Bills will have watched that film and I expect them to be ready to pounce with some aggressive downfield calls.

Josh Allen prop: Longest completion Over 36.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Captain Kirk

After recording just a single catch for nine yards in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts, it was reasonable to at least wonder whether Kirk’s role in the Jacksonville offense might be diminished with Calvin Ridley back from suspension.

But Kirk has made any concerns look pretty silly since then, piling up 32 targets in the next three games and cashing in on the chemistry he built with Trevor Lawrence last year. If anything, the presence of Ridley has meant more space and less defensive attention for Kirk.

That makes a strong case for the Over on the Kirk receiving yards prop here in Week 5 — a line that he’s gone past in his last three games, including a 110-yard day against the Kansas City Chiefs.

While Jacksonville will surely want to establish the ground game to eat into the clock, there’s every chance that Lawrence throws the ball 40+ times to keep pace with this Buffalo offensive machine. That should translate to double-digit looks again for Kirk, who had 12 targets last time out.

London was to Kirk’s liking last weekend, with eight grabs for 84 yards against the Atlanta Falcons, and the Bills’ secondary is weakened by the season-ending injury for Tre’Davious White. With the potential for a high-scoring thriller on Sunday, Kirk is set to be a key figure. 

Christian Kirk prop: Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115 at Unibet)