Coming out of their bye, the Los Angeles Chargers take on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has dropped five straight games by an average of 12 points. The Chargers are on a losing streak of their own (four games), but they’ve stayed competitive against a much stronger set of opponents.
Some books opened this spread as high as Bolts -9.5, but it fell quickly and has settled at L.A. -7. The total opened at 49 and ticked up to 49.5 points. The Jaguars are 2-4 ATS and 3-3 Over/Under while the Chargers are 4-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U to begin the year.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jaguars vs Chargers on October 25.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers betting preview
Key Injuries
Jaguars: Myles Jack LB (Out), Abry Jones DL (Out), Jarrod Wilson S (Out), Tyler Eifert TE (Out), A.J. Cann G (Questionable), Luc Barcoo CB (Out).
Chargers: Trai Turner G (Out), Bryan Bulaga T (Out), Austin Ekeler RB (Out), Mike Pouncey C (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS on games with a total of 49 or more points this year.. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Chargers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Jaguars got pummeled against the Lions last week and limped away with more injuries, especially to the defense. Four of their best defenders didn’t play or finish their Week 6 game.
Linebacker Myles Jack, DLs Josh Allen and Abry Jones and safety Jarrod Wilson are all questionable this week. The Jags were already one of the league’s worst bets as their losing margin ATS had been nearly 13 points a game since Week 2.
Being 7-point favorites is new territory for the Chargers this year as they’ve been 7-point (or more) underdogs in three of their five games. Quarterback Justin Herbert and the offense have hung well against two solid teams in Tampa Bay and New Orleans over the previous two weeks, and the defense will get a huge boost with DLs Melvin Ingram and Justin Jones likely playing after getting activated off the IR.
If Los Angeles can get up by more than two scores, Jacksonville will be in a tough spot to put up points against a defense that’s allowing just 2.4 TDs per game.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Chargers -7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Jacksonville has seen a total of 49.5 points or greater in four straight weeks and is 1-3 O/U in those games.
The offense is only putting up 17 points a contest since Week 3 and three of those games were against Bottom-15 defenses. This is not an offense we want to bet on putting up points, especially against a Chargers defense that’s getting its best player back in Ingram.
The Bolts stop unit surprised Drew Brees and Tom Brady early in consecutive weeks but conceded 44 second-half points in those two games. The addition of Ingram and Jones helps getting the defense off the field in those second halves while Herbert and the offense will control the ball against a Jaguars defense that could be starting up to four backups.
PREDICTION: Under 49.5 (-110)
First half pick
The Jaguars’ offensive numbers are slightly skewed thanks to garbage-time production. Since Week 2, the offense has not scored more than one touchdown in the first half and is averaging just eight points in the opening 30 minutes of its last five games.
As mentioned above, the Chargers are a better first-half team and have held their opponents to just 11 points in the first two frames this year.
Playing first-half sides can sometimes help us avoid backdoor covers, which this game is set up for with L.A. being a TD favorite. We’re getting in and getting out before dinner time.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Chargers first half -5.5 (-115)
Jaguars vs Chargers betting card
- Los Angeles Chargers -7 (-110)
- Under 49.5 (-110)
- Los Angeles Chargers first half -5.5 (-115)
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