The 4-12 Jacksonville Jaguars have huge draft order implications after winning last week. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts were eliminated from playoff contention after a shocking loss to the New York Giants.
My Jaguars vs. Colts predictions are taking the underdogs on the road against the five-point spread. Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, January 5.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with the game airing on FOX.
Jaguars vs Colts predictions
Jaguars vs Colts spread prediction
The Indianapolis Colts opened as 5.5-point favorites and the spread has only slightly dropped to 5.0, as of Friday afternoon. The Jacksonville Jaguars have owned the Colts recently, covering the spread in eight of the last 10 matchups.
Joe Flacco started the previous matchup this season and despite putting up big numbers, the Jaguars scored 37 points and won straight up. Last week, Flacco had a similar performance and lost to an even worse team in a high-scoring game
Jaguars vs Colts moneyline prediction
While I love the Jaguars to cover the spread, I would also suggest sprinkling some on the moneyline.
The Jaguars have won each of the past three matchups and seven of the last 10. The Jaguars have been playing much better recently despite it hurting their chances at a better draft pick. The coaching staff is unlikely to return so they don’t have much motivation to tank this game.
Jaguars vs Colts Over/Under prediction
Despite ranking 25th in the NFL in scoring, Jacksonville has scored 20+ points in three of their past five games. The Jags also had their best scoring output of the season the last time they faced the Colts.
The Colts have been playing worse defense over the past three weeks than any other team in the NFL. They just allowed a Drew Lock-led Giants offense to rack up 45 points and 389 yards. This game is destined to be high-scoring with bad defense.
My best bet
Jaguars +5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts is meaningless for the sake of the playoffs, but there is still a lot on the line for draft position and the futures of these two franchises.
Unfortunately, injuries have sidelined both teams' first option at quarterback.
Instead, we will see Mac Jones and Joe Flacco go at it. After early struggles in his first two appearances, Jones has looked formidable in his past five games. He has especially found a connection with rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas has 38 catches on 59 targets over the past five games, resulting in 490 yards and five touchdowns. The Colts have struggled with top receivers this season and just allowed Malik Nabers to go for seven catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas will get his, especially with his increased target volume.
Now, the Colts will do some scoring on their side as well. They have averaged 24.0 points per game in their five games with Flacco as the starter. However, they are also 1-4 in those five games. The Colts are 6-2 against teams with a losing record this season, but both losses are with Flacco at quarterback.
Strangely, vibes are much better on the sidelines of the 4-12 team than the one at 7-9. While a loss is better for the Jaguars' chances at getting a top-five pick — even the first pick is still an outside shot — they are not playing with that mentality. Even if the Colts sneak out a victory here, it will not be by more than five points.
Jaguars vs Colts same-game parlay
Jaguars +5
Over 44
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 78.5 receiving yards
Each of the last four matchups between these teams has gone Over the total. Each of the last four and six of the past seven Colts games have also gone Over the total.
Finally, I will add Thomas to go Over his receiving total. He has reached 79 receiving yards in five of his past six games and he came up just short in the one where he didn't at 76. With double-digit targets in each of his last five games, I expect the volume to remain.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Jaguars vs Colts odds
Jaguars vs Colts live odds
Jaguars vs Colts opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +5 (-110) | Indianapolis -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jacksonville +185 | Indianapolis -225
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jaguars vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Colts are getting 73% of the money and 54% of the bets against the spread.
- The Jaguars are 8-7-1 ATS this season despite their 4-12 straight-up record.
- The total opened at 44.5 and got as high as 45.5 before dropping to 43.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 20 games.
- According to Covers Consensus, 57% of spread picks are laying the points with Indianapolis, while 55% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Jaguars vs Colts betting trend to know
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Colts.
Jaguars vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Jaguars vs Colts latest injuries
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