Two franchises moving in opposite directions are set to clash in Week 1 of the NFL season as the Indianapolis Colts play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
NFL odds opened with the Jags as 4.5-point road favorites for this AFC South clash before that line grew to -5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Colts on September 10.
Jaguars vs Colts odds
Jaguars vs Colts predictions
This has to be either the biggest betting trap of Week 1 or an absolute gimme from oddsmakers. The Jacksonville Jaguars are everybody and their grandmother's Super Bowl dark horse. They closed the 2022 regular season with five straight wins and then mounted a 27-point comeback in the Wild Card round to knock off the Chargers before falling to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
The future is bright for the Jags as they have cleansed the bad juju from the brief Urban Meyer regime and are led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who looks poised for an MVP-caliber season.
Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts are on the other side of a rebuild following a year where they lost their final seven games and went 2-5 against the spread during that span. They enter Week 1 with a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new quarterback in rookie Anthony Richardson.
Richardson is one of the most physically gifted QBs around, but he also had an ugly 53.8 completion percentage in his lone year starting at Florida and he is far less NFL-ready than both Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. The Colts also have no depth at wide receiver behind Michael Pittman Jr., and star running back Jonathan Taylor is currently holding out for a new contract.
On the other side of the ball for Indy, DeForest Buckner and linebacker Shaq Leonard are two of the best defenders in the NFL. Unfortunately, unlike offensive attacks, defenses can't be carried by a couple of great players. A stop unit is only as strong as its weakest links and the Colts have plenty of those, especially at cornerback where they are expected to start Darrell Baker Jr. and Dallis Flowers (insert Guardians of the Galaxy "Who??" meme here).
The Jags have plenty of question marks on defense as well, but they also possess more young talent with both Travon Walker and linebacker Devin Lloyd ready to take the next step. With Lawrence ready to carve up this no-name Indy secondary, I'm backing Jacksonville on the spread.
My best bet: Jaguars -4.5 (-108 at Pinnacle)
Jaguars vs Colts same-game parlay
Jaguars -4.5 (-125)
Christian Kirk Over 50.5 receiving yards (-110)
Travis Etienne Under 56.5 rushing yards (-110)
Christian Kirk emerged as Lawrence's favorite weapon last season, hauling in 84 catches on 133 targets for 1,108 yards. While Kirk might see fewer targets with Calvin Ridley on the field, but Ridley hasn't played since November of 2021 and rust could be an issue while he builds chemistry with Lawrence. Kirk is already on the same page as Lawrence and the Jags franchise QB will likely look his way often against this weak group of Colts corners.
While I like the Jags to cover, fading Travis Etienne's rushing total gives this parlay a nice multiplier. Etienne is certainly a talented back but the Colts were solid against the run last year, ranking 10th in defensive rush EPA and allowing just 4.1 yards per carry.
Yes, the Jaguars might lean on their ground game if they build an early lead in this contest, but Etienne might not be asked to carry the load given his durability concerns. Keep in mind that they drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round to be Etienne's backup and cut into his workload. Bigsby looked terrific during the preseason, rushing for 159 yards on 28 carries.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jaguars vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
The line was sitting at Jaguars -4.5 in August and has since ticked up by half a point, while the O/U has moved from 45 to 46.5.
The Jaguars ended last season going 6-1 straight up/ATS, and they are expected to make the playoffs again with -200 odds. Meanwhile, the Colts finished their 2022 campaign with seven straight defeats and went 1-5 ATS in their final six contests. They are currently listed at -500 to miss the postseason and their win total is set at just 6.5.
The Jags have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these division foes but the Colts have won the last three games in Indianapolis outright.
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Jaguars vs Colts betting trend to know
The Jaguars have scored last in nine of their last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 59% ROI) while the Colts have scored last just once in their previous 11 contests (-9.80 Units / -83% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Colts.
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Jaguars vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, September 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Colts +3.5, 43.5 O/U |
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