Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive on Thursday night as the two clubs meet at MetLife Stadium in a low-total game that is expected to see some low temperatures and rain.
Trevor Lawrence’s passing total has taken a lot of money on the Under but it’s his legs I’ll be betting on. I also can’t see this being a heavy-volume passing game for Zach Wilson despite the good matchup.
Here are my best NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football’s battle between the Jaguars and Jets.
Jaguars vs Jets props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jaguars vs Jets TNF props
A go with the toe
Trevor Lawrence has been carving up defenses of late and is just the second quarterback this season to pass for over 300 yards vs. the Cowboys. However, with wind and rain projected as well as his passing yards market getting smashed to the Under (236.5 to 214.5), Lawrence might need to rely on another skill that's been going slightly unnoticed with how well he’s been passing the ball.
Since Week 5, Lawrence is 7-3 to the Over on his rushing total and has run for 20 or more yards in six of those. He comes into Thursday night with a modest rushing total of 11.5 yards which is as high as 15.5 at some books. Even with another 20-yard rushing performance last week — his fourth in six weeks — the books have adjusted his rushing prop by just two yards at most books.
Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that has kept him limited for multiple weeks. He suffered the injury in Week 13 and although he’s drawn the questionable tag for TNF, reports are stating he’s good to go. Even with the injury last week, he rushed for 20+ yards with a long of 11. With higher-total QBs, this might worry me, but at 11.5 yards and a guy playing at an MVP level, Lawrence can get it done.
The non-ideal passing conditions could also open the probability for more scrambles for a quarterback who is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game over his 31 NFL starts. New left tackle Walker Little could also help create an opportunity for a scramble if this New York pass rush can collapse the pocket on Lawrence who is one of the least-sacked QBs per dropback.
Outside of the fumble, this looks like a QB who isn’t being slowed down by a toe injury.
Trevor Lawrence ruins his big run with an even bigger fumble. ?????? pic.twitter.com/aqmQS9IK7l
— Sportsbook Review (@SBRReview) December 18, 2022
If he takes off, he's athletic enough to gain big yards which makes this a potential one-and-done for a quarterback who averages 3.5 carries per game — the ninth-highest rate among NFL QBs this season. His 4.9 yards per rush this season is also better than Jalen Hurts (4.8 ypc).
Trevor Lawrence Prop: Over 11.5 rushing yards (-115)
Feeling dirty with value
Sometimes betting on value doesn't feel good as you’re likely betting against public opinion, and that’s where I stand with Zach Wilson’s interception market.
Wilson is -205 to throw a pick against a Bottom-5 pass defense and that 67% probability is a bit too much in a game expected to have poor passing conditions and a 37-point total.
He’s only thrown a pick in three of his eight starts this year and after his return to the lineup last season has thrown an interception in 33% of his last 15 games. That includes eight games vs. teams that currently rank in the Top 10 in DVOA pass defense.
The Jaguars will be an easier opponent as they are one of the easiest teams to pass against and with a passing total of just 204.5 yards, NFL odds aren’t expecting a lot of passing from the New York offense.
It might not feel great betting on Wilson, but lots of time with props that’s where the value lies. The weather and rain should keep Wilson’s passes short (ranks 26th in adjusted air yards per attempt at 5.9) and getting +160 for the Under is solid considering THE BLITZ has the projection at 0.97. Basically, this is a coin toss but we’re getting +160.
There is also a chance that he doesn’t finish the game which is an extra out.
Zach Wilson Prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (+160)
Doubling down
Considering the low total and sharp prop bettors hitting passing Unders, it makes sense to hit the Under on Wilson’s completions at 18.5 that's also seeing the market move to the Under.
Last week vs. the Lions, Wilson went 18-for-31 passing in conditions that will likely be more favorable than Thursday night. The wind likely won’t be an issue, but it’s going to be cold and rainy which isn’t great news for a QB who struggles to make routine passes and ranks 35th or worse in true completion percentage, pressured competition percentage, and red-zone competition percentage.
Wilson’s 54.9 completion percentage is the worst mark in football with QBs attempting at least 120 passes. His expected completion rate is 5.8 points higher than his actual completion percentage. Only Baker Mayfield has a worse completion percentage above expected.
The matchup seems easy on paper but Wilson completed just 51.4% of his passes vs. a Detroit defense that ranks even worse than the Jaguars in EPA/dropback and success rate vs. the pass. This game is also not expected to be pass-heavy as Trevor Lawrence’s passing total sits at 214.5 after closing at 248.5 vs. Dallas last week (indoors).
Wilson has completed more than 18 passes just once in eight starts this season and I have no issues fading a QB who has the worst accuracy in football and is on a short week with bad weather.
Zach Wilson Prop: Under 18.5 completions (-118)
