Jaguars vs Jets Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Lawrence-Engram Connection Strikes Again

The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are first up on the NFL odds board for Week 16, with a Thursday Night Football showdown in East Rutherford.

Jacksonville hits the road for the third time in the past four weeks, attempting to stretch its winning ways to three games and pull closer in the race atop the AFC South. The Jaguars have been a darling among sharp bettors in the second half of the season and this spread has bounced between favorite and underdog.

New York is reeling on a three-game slide but has lost each of those outings by a single score. The Jets have a quarterback controversy on their hands, with Zach Wilson playing well in the Week 15 loss and making Gang Green choose between the second-year QB and Mike White, who missed last Sunday with broken ribs and is questionable for this midweek turnaround.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars at Jets on December 22.

Jaguars vs Jets best odds

Jaguars vs Jets picks and predictions

A big part of the Jaguars’ offensive success in recent outings has been an increased role from tight end Evan Engram. He’s not only seen his snap rate spike the past two outings but he’s been a favorite option for QB Trevor Lawrence, who is also his next-door neighbor in the locker room.

Engram has been targeted a total of 25 times in the last two games for 19 catches. He reeled in 11 of 15 passes his way for a monster 162-yard day in Jacksonville's Week 14 win at Tennessee and had eight grabs on 10 targets for 62 yards in the victory over Dallas this past weekend. 

Those efforts blew away Engram’s receiving yard totals of 30.5 and 35.5 yards in those outings and the TE has topped his player prop for yardage in three straight contests. Engram’s Over/Under for Week 16 opened at 45.5 yards — his tallest total of the season — and has been bet up to 48.5 yards with early play on the Over. I still think this number is too short considering how he’s clicking in the offense and the matchup Thursday night.

Lawrence and the passing game put on a show in the victory over the Cowboys, with Lawrence finding seven different receivers for a total of 318 yards and four touchdown passes. Three of those TD throws ended up in the hands of Zay Jones, who — along with Marvin Jones Jr. and Christian Kirk — will battle one the best secondaries in the league Thursday night. The Jets allow the fifth-lowest success rate to opposing passing attacks and rank No. 6 in Pass Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. 

Gang Green’s stop unit, headlined by a deep and dangerous secondary, locks down WR1s and WR2s but has shown weaknesses to quality tight ends this season. On the year, New York has given up the seventh-most receptions for TEs for 741 yards, including a 51-yard game-winning touchdown strike to Lions TE Brock Wright on Sunday.

Engram is really settling into Doug Pederson’s playbook, which has always carved out a spot for tight ends to do damage. Pederson sees the potential in Engram and has moved him all over the place in the receiving game, including having success out of the slot where Engram has caught almost half of his total 61 receptions on the year.

While the Jets’ attention will be set on the Jaguars talented trio of wide receivers, Pederson will play chess with the versatile Engram and leverage mismatches against either smaller corners and safeties or slower linebackers in coverage. 

And with the current forecast calling for rain and wind and New York’s pass pressure putting the squeeze on Lawrence, Engram will be a viable option on short throws with the speedy TE picking up yards after the catch (fourth most YAC among TEs).

My best bet: Evan Engram Over 48.5 receiving yards (+100) 

Jaguars vs Jets spread analysis

The Jets opened as 1-point home favorites on Sunday night but, much like in recent weeks, early money showed up on Jacksonville. That spread quickly moved to a pick’em and money continued to back the road side, swinging this spread over the fence to as high as Jacksonville -1.5. 

However, with the Jets QB position still up in the air, the market has come back toward the home team and most books have New York set as a 1-point favorite. White is listed as doubtful with the rib injury and while the difference between him and Wilson is minor, N.Y. has looked sharper on offense with White making the throws.

As mentioned, the Jaguars have held a place in pro bettors' hearts the past month or so and their analytical layout plays nice with many models. Jacksonville is 10th in EPA per play since Week 9 and while the defense leaves much to desire, the Jags are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests, including a comeback win against the Cowboys in overtime last Sunday.

The Jets offense falls short in comparison to some of the Jaguars’ recent foes (Dallas, Detroit, Kansas City) and while White has sparked life in the passing game, New York remains 19th in DVOA and 26th in EPA per play. This depth chart also has injuries beyond White, with WR Corey Davis among three WRs listed as questionable, and the offensive line dinged up.

According to Covers Consensus, 57% of picks are backing the host Jets, who are 8-6 ATS on the season but are 3-4 ATS in their last seven games. 

Jaguars vs Jets Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total hit the board at 40.5 points on Sunday night and has slid to as low as 38.5 in the first 48 hours of action.

New York’s defense is the backbone of this franchise right now, sitting No. 6 in both DVOA and EPA allowed per play on the season. The Jets just checked Buffalo and Detroit — two of the better offenses in the NFL — to 20 points apiece and are limiting opposing passing games to a mere 43.2% success rate per dropback.

New York can generate solid pressure on the passer with the front four (ninth-best pressure rate for 39 sacks) and blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL. Lawrence is steady against extra rushers but has struggled against pass pressure from just the defensive front, completing only 49% of his passes for an average of 5.9 yards per attempt with four INTs in those situations. To make matters worse, starting left tackle Cam Robinson is out for the year. 

Jacksonville has also been able to stir up consistent pressure on rival QBs, owning the sixth-highest pressure rate per dropback and blitzing more than New York. But despite that, the Jags have amassed only 26 sacks on the season, though they are Top 8 in QB hits and hurries. 

Wilson has struggled mightily under pressure, both from the defensive line and from extra blitzers, with eight INTs under duress and an average of 4.4 yards per attempt while under pressure. He looked sharper versus Detroit last Sunday — facing much more blitz from Detroit’s defense — but was still sacked four times and threw one interception in the loss.

The weather for Thursday night was calling for clearer conditions, but the most recent forecast as of Tuesday morning is calling for periods of rain with wind gusts up to 25 mph and “feels like” temperatures hovering around freezing in MetLife Stadium. 

Jaguars vs Jets same-game parlay

Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions (-135) + Allen to record a sack (+115) + Engram Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110)

Engram keeps the catches coming as his role in this offense grows. Despite some improved play from Lawrence, he’s always live to throw a pick and faces a ball-hawking Jets secondary with 12 INTs on the season. Josh Allen has had a sack in each of the past two games and is making the Jags defense dangerous.

TNF SGP odds: +600 at bet365

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jaguars vs Jets betting trend to know

While Jacksonville is pushing for the postseason this December, the final month of the calendar has not been kind to Jaguars bettors when the team leaves Duval County. Since 2010, Jacksonville is just 5-28 SU and 12-20-1 ATS as a visitor between Week 13 and the regular season finale. The 2022 Jags are 1-1 SU and ATS on the road this month. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Jets.

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