Even with their big win on Monday night, there is no room for error going forward for the Baltimore Ravens if they want to make the playoffs. Standing in their way in Week 15 are the Jacksonville Jaguars who are riding a 12-game losing streak.
This is an interesting game for NFL betting purposes, as the Ravens placed two of their top-three receivers on the COVID list in Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin, but with the way this Baltimore offense runs, it may not affect much in terms of NFL odds as the total didn't move after the news broke on Wednesday.
The Jaguars will be starting QB Gardner Minshew this week after their second-and third-string quarterbacks failed to pick up a single win. Minshew is slated as a 13.5-point underdog against a Baltimore offense that put on a rushing clinic last week and scored five TDs on the ground. The total sits at 47.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Ravens for Sunday, December 20 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview
Weather
Sunday will be partly cloudy at M&T Bank Stadium with temperatures in the low-40s at game time. We're also looking at a 9 mph breeze and an 11 percent chance of rain. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jaguars: CJ Henderson CB (Out), Sidney Jones CB (Out), Tre Herndon CB (Out), Luq Barcoo CB (Out), Brandon Linder C (Out).
Ravens: Marcus Peters CB (Out), Calais Campbell DE (Out), Jimmy Smith CB (Out), Mark Ingram RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 8-1 in Baltimore's last 9 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Ravens.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
It’s been two months since the Baltimore Ravens have been double-digit favorites, as a stretch of poor offensive play had them playing sub-.500 football since November 1. A pair of back-to-back SU and ATS wins has Lamar Jackson and the rushing game back on track as they look to win out and secure a playoff spot. Baltimore outran the league’s best second-rushing team by nearly 100 yards in Week 14 and may have found their mojo at the right time of the year.
The Jaguars will be on their third QB in seven games as Gardner Minshew gets the start again after his coach threw him under the bus after a Week 7 loss. Jacksonville will get a rest advantage over the Ravens, who nearly let Week 14’s game slip away after a 14-point fourth-quarter lead was erased by the Browns.
Minshew has started seven games this year but has failed to cover in his last five. If the Jags can’t get some points on the board, their 14-point cushion could be gone before half as this Jaguars defense ranks 31st in the league and has allowed at least 27 points in all but one of their last 11 games.
With Baltimore running the ball and controlling the clock, it should keep this inconsistent Jacksonville offense out of rhythm. Minshew already has no trust from his coach and we can’t trust him either.
Both receivers Brown and Boykin could still suit up Sunday, but the receiver position is the least important position on the offensive side of the ball for Baltimore. We aren't terribly worried about their availability.
PREDICTION: Baltimore -13.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Baltimore has hit the Over in three of its four games when favored by eight points or more this year. This week, as a 13.5-point favorite, the Baltimore offense will get to run down the Jaguars No. 31 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders.
Jackson looked like his MVP self against the Browns, rushing for 124 yards and two scores. Baltimore mixes up its running backs between J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, which keeps this Baltimore offense pounding. Once the Jaguars commit to the run and bring safety help in the box, Jackson could go play-action and burn the league’s worst pass defense for big yards.
Baltimore should have a great shot at hitting their team total...but can the Jags do the same? Considering the Ravens gave up 42 points on Monday, which included 21 fourth-quarter points, we think there is a chance. Hoping for 20 points out of the Jaguars isn’t crazy thinking: the Ravens also give up over 60 yards a game in penalties, so maybe Minshew & Co. could be bailed out by the refs as well.
PREDICTION: Over 47.5 (-110)
First Half Spread Pick
The Ravens are 10-3 ATS this year in the first half. This is a team built around getting an early lead and letting their defense solve the rest of the game. No team in the league has had more success covering the first half than the Ravens.
Baltimore is scoring 6.5 points in the first quarter this year, which is the second-highest average in the league. The Ravens' 16.5 first-half points per game at home is also the third-highest mark in the NFL.
Jacksonville has been mediocre defensively in the first half, but when it travels, it’s allowing the league’s second-most first-half points per game at 16.7—just 1.3 points less than the last-ranked Browns.
PREDICTION: Baltimore first half -7.5 (-110)
Jaguars vs Ravens Betting Card
- Baltimore -13.5 (-110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Baltimore first half -7.5 (-110)
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