Jaguars vs Saints Odds, Picks, and TNF Predictions: Fade Jacksonville With Uncertainty Under Center

NFL Week 7 odds begin with the Jacksonville Jaguars limping into Caesars Superdome as a growing 3-point road dog vs. the 3-3 New Orleans Saints.

Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury and the visitors are also dealing with several other potential absences ahead of tonight's showdown.  

With quarterback uncertainty behind a depleted O-line, should bettors be backing the home side’s excellent defense?

I break down the Thursday Night Football odds and give my free NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Saints below. Be sure to check out our best Alvin Kamara prop picks and TNF prop picks as well. 

Jaguars vs Saints odds

Jaguars vs Saints predictions

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a good run over the last three weeks. They took both games in London and then won convincingly vs. the Colts who were riding their backup and were really thin in the secondary. 

Now, with Trevor Lawrence highly questionable and the O-line possibly out two starters vs. an elite defense, the Jaguars team total Under 17.5 (-110) is my best play heading into Thursday night. 

The Jaguars have Lawrence, Zay Jones, LG Walker Little, RG Brendan Sherff, and CB Tyson Campbell as giant question marks on Thursday. This was already an offense that ranked 20th in points per play and ranked in the bottom-third of the league in red zone TD% and attempts. Take away the two Colts games and this Jags team is averaging 18.5 points per game. 

Now they might have to lean on CJ Beathard who hasn’t started a game since 2020 and has taken three or more sacks in nine of his 12 career starts. 

Lawrence was at practice on Tuesday sporting a brace but at the time of writing, his involvement in practice is unknown. It's a tough spot for either QB but with the recent spread movement, Beathard is worth 16.5 to 17.5 on the team total and Lawrence is worth 19.5. The difference between the 17.5 and 19.5 is very minimal as 18 and 19 points are uncommon numbers. 

It would be a tough start for the career backup in Beathard as the Saints rank in the Top 6 in both pass and run expected points contributed and have the No. 4 pass defense, per success rate. 

On the season, the Saints have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their six games, rank second in opponent completion percentage, fifth in total yards allowed, and eighth in RZ TD%. The short week would certainly make it even more difficult for Beathard if Lawrence does sit. 

If the Jags don’t get some key bodies back and this spread moves off the 3 to 3.5 or longer, this team total could also shrink to 16.5 which is a significant move as the 17 is a key number. This is a volatile team total and spread until Lawrence's participation is known but 17.5 is a safe number here with a hobbling Lawrence or Beathard. 

Considering the run they were on, the injuries, and the matchup, it could be an absolute dud offensively for the Jaguars in primetime and I’m here for it.

My best bet: Jaguars team total Under 17.5 (-110 at FanDuel|+138 with 50% boost)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jaguars vs Saints same-game parlay

Jaguars TT Under 17.5

Shaheed Over 34.5 rec yds

Kamara anytime TD

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+744 +1,116 at FanDuel

Even if Lawrence suits up, this is still a tough matchup with an injured O-line and possibly no Zay Jones. This wasn't an elite offense to begin with and going from the Colts to the Saints is a big difference on a short week.

Rashid Shaheed has a great matchup as Jacksonville is likely without its best boundary corner in Tyson Campbell. He's a speedy receiver who can top this number in a single catch. He isn't a high-volume receiver but has at least 28 yards in five of his six games. The ceiling is very high with Shaheed.

Alvin Kamara will likely have one more week as the goal-line back with Jamaal Williams likely not being activated. It's a solid price (+130) for a guy seeing as many looks as he is.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Jaguars vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis

The Saints were -1.5 on the look-ahead but after the news about Trevor Lawrence being day-to-day, New Orleans money drove this quickly to -3. If the news stays grim for the health of Lawrence as well as for the O-line in Walker and Sherff and starting corner Tyson Campbell, this will surely move off -3 and could go to -4.

This spread could move anywhere from 1.5 to 4.5. Lawrence was at practice Tuesday with a brace and this line moved from 3 to 1.5. As of Tuesday, there's still plenty of room for movement. My guess is if Lawrence is in, the spread is Saints -1.5, and if Beathard is in, it moves to New Orleans -3.5 or even as high as -4.5. 

Beathard hasn’t started a game since 2020 and has 12 NFL starts to his name. It would be a short week of prep for the 29-year-old vs. an elite defense which usually turns ugly for the QB in most cases.

The Saints are 3-3 SU but have been a stingy defense allowing 20 or fewer points in five of those. They haven't played any elite offenses, but if Beathard is under center, you can expect a score-suppressing effort from the home side. It's not even an easy matchup for Lawrence who is dealing with a knee injury and could be without two linemen and Zay Jones. 

New Orleans has excelled defensively even without QB pressure. On the season, it ranks in the bottom-third in pressure percentage but if it can get in the backfield vs. a banged-up O-line and a possible backup QB who has taken 3+ sacks in nine of his 12 NFL starts, Jacksonville could be punting early and often Thursday night. 

The Saints offense is not the greatest unit in football, but there is plenty of talent and it put up 430 total yards last week despite the loss to the Texans. New Orleans had 0.5 more yards per play than Houston but went 0-for-3 in the red zone.

Jacksonville, with its best corner in Campbell, allows 3.5 red-zone trips per game to opponents (20th) and has allowed TDs at a 66% rate over the last three games. 

It’s hard to get excited about a sub-40-point total but here we are. This number was 42.5 on the look-ahead but the Lawrence situation is bringing it down fast. The Saints are a perfect 6-0 to the Under on the season thanks to an offense scoring 18.2 points per game and a defense holding opponents to 16.0 per contest.

The Saints offense is at full strength heading into this week and likely has been discounted a bit after the 13-point effort last week despite putting up 140 more yards than their 34-0 win in Week 5.

Derek Carr was limited on Monday’s estimated injury report and has been playing through a shoulder injury but he looks like a lay-up to play Thursday night and could be dealing with incredible field position all game if the Jags’ offense is run by Beathard and he can’t move the ball.

Jacksonville punter Logan Cooke is a Top-10 boot but his 48.8 yards per punt is very close to the league median of 47.7. 

Jaguars vs Saints betting trend to know

The Jaguars have scored first in seven of their last 20 games (-8.55 units / -35% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Saints.

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