The New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars kick off NFL Week 7 odds in the Thursday Night Football spotlight, but Trevor Lawrence’s knee injury at the weekend has brought some gloom, with the NFL odds in limbo.
Lawrence hasn’t missed a game since being drafted by the Jaguars and the smart money says he’ll be under center, but his health for this showdown has removed a little of the gloss for a Jacksonville team riding a three-game win streak and sitting at 4-2.
After playing four of their first six games on the road, the Saints are an uneven 3-3 but they’ll still be one of the more popular NFL picks this week as the tiniest of home favorites in our Thursday Night Football odds.
If the Lawrence uncertainty steers you away from the moneyline and spread, look no further than the NFL player prop markets. Here are my top picks for this TNF matchup – and remember to check out our full Jaguars vs. Saints predictions and Alvin Kamara prop picks.
Jaguars vs Saints TNF props
- Kamara Over 83.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Etienne anytime TD
- Grupe Over 6.5 kicking points
Picks made on October 18 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Jaguars vs Saints TNF props
Prop bet #1: Lights, Kamara, Action
The New Orleans Saints had to manage without Alvin Kamara while he served his suspension over the first three weeks of the season — but they’ve been making up for lost time by feeding their backfield star all the touches he can handle since his return.
Kamara has 75 touches in his three games this year, capped off by 26 touches (19 carries, seven catches) against the Texans on Sunday, and he’s looked sharper than he did in a somewhat disappointing 2022 campaign.
I love the Over on Kamara’s combined rushing + receiving yards prop. Whether New Orleans is protecting a lead or playing catch-up, he’ll be central to the game plan. Kamara has hit the Over on this 83.5 line in all three games this year, with a high of 104 yards in Houston at the weekend.
Make no mistake, though, he’s facing a strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense in this TNF battle, and the Jags have been especially stingy against the run, allowing just 75 yards a game (third-best mark in the NFL).
Receiving yards might be an easier path for Kamara. The visitors held the Colts to 44 rushing yards on Sunday, but Jonathan Taylor finished with five catches for 46 yards and Zack Moss had six grabs for 38 yards. Kamara’s versatility as a receiver could be even more of a weapon on Thursday.
With the Saints needing a rebound win, I’m leaning into the volume Kamara can expect here and predicting him to have a busy night.
Alvin Kamara prop: Over 83.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 at BetRivers)
Prop bet #2: Etienne keeps rolling
With the potential for either C.J. Beathard to be running the show for the Jaguars or Lawrence to be less than 100%, most of the Jacksonville player props feel like stay-aways.
But Travis Etienne has made a compelling case in his past two outings, with a two-touchdown day in London against the Bills in Week 5 followed by another pair of scores against the Colts on Sunday.
The odds for an Etienne anytime touchdown would feel a little better with a healthy Lawrence under center, but I’m going to ride the hot hand regardless. Etienne is sixth in the NFL with 451 rushing yards and he might even see an uptick in touches if Lawrence isn’t a full go with his knee injury.
Most importantly, Etienne is going to get touches near the goal line. He’s had 12 carries in the red zone so far this year on the way to five rushing scores.
While the Saints have only allowed one rushing TD this year (to Jordan Love, for those wondering), they gave up 120 yards on the ground in Week 6 and won’t be able to stack the box with the threat of Jags duo Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley in the passing game. I see that opening up just enough space for Etienne to thrive.
From Week 2 onwards, he’s had at least three catches in every game but he’s still looking for his first career TD catch despite putting up 488 receiving yards across 23 games as a pro. Maybe this is the week.
Travis Etienne prop: Anytime TD (+110 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Bounceback Blake
The swoop for Derek Carr was New Orleans’ biggest swing this offseason, but it was also noteworthy that the Saints moved on from kicker Wil Lutz after seven years and put their faith behind rookie Blake Grupe.
In his first six weeks, Grupe has already dealt with the highs and lows of life as an NFL kicker — a flawless debut, a missed game-winner in Week 3, two kicks from 50+ yards in Week 5, and two misses on Sunday.
But I see him rebounding from the weekend setbacks on TNF with an assured night in front of the home crowd at Caesars Superdome, where he’s 7-for-7 on kicks so far this year.
Grupe has had at least two field-goal attempts in every game this season, and he’s racked up seven or more kicking points in five of his six outings. I don’t expect New Orleans’ faith in him to waver.
The hosts have taken a cautious approach on fourth down this season. The Saints have only gone for it in that spot five times (2-for-5 success rate), which is very much at the low end when you consider the Colts have tallied 15 attempts in their first six games.
That should set up opportunities for Grupe and I like him to have 7+ kicking points again on Thursday, particularly with the New Orleans offense still lacking fluency in finishing off drives.
Blake Grupe prop: Over 6.5 kicking points (+105 at bet365)
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