The 0-4 Houston Texans will look to pick up their first win of the year versus the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday but they will be without head coach and GM Bill O’Brien, who was fired on Monday.
Despite a 0-4 ATS start to the year, Houston opened Week 5 as 6.5-point favorites. That number could be heading down as we get closer to Sunday. The total opened at 54 and may fall below that number with the Under having heavy juice early in the week.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Texans on October 11 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans betting preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the low-80s at kickoff as NRG Stadium will entertain a medium breeze (7 mph) and a 3 percent chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jaguars: Myles Jack LB (Out), CJ Henderson CB (Out), Josh Allen LB (Out).
Texans: Jordan Akins TE (Out), Benardrick McKinney LB (Out), Keke Coutee WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under has hit in four straight matchups between the Jaguars and Texans.. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Texans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
After beating the Colts in Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars have dropped three straight games to Tennessee, Miami and Cincinnati. All three of those teams rank in the bottom 10 in rushing DVOA, yet Jacksonville has had to rely on the pass in order to move the ball. QB Gardner Minshew is better when WR DJ Chark is in the lineup, but the Jaguars’ passing rank (10th in the league) is a little skewed thanks to playing catchup late in their games.
The Texans will finally see what life without Bill O’Brien is like on Sunday as defensive-minded Romeo Crennel will take over. QB Deshaun Watson has averaged 273 passing yards per game this year and could pick apart a Jacksonville secondary that could be without its top corner and starting slot corner. Houston has had to play one of the most difficult schedules (KC, Baltimore, Pittsburgh) to start the year and a coaching change could spark some confidence in a team that hasn’t had much to celebrate this year.
It is difficult to begin a season 0-5 ATS, so we like the Texans to get on the board this Sunday.
PREDICTION: Houston -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Combined, the Texans and Jaguars are 6-2 O/U on the year...but it hasn’t been because of their offenses. Jacksonville sits 23rd in the league at 23.7 points per game and Houston is struggling even more, putting up just 20 points per contest. Their defenses, on the other hand, have been more than generous to their opponents with both teams allowing nearly 30 ppg. Jacksonville could be in even more trouble with two of its three best CBs questionable heading into Sunday — the Jaguars are allowing the sixth-most yards per play through four weeks but neither team has seen a total as high as 54.
Jacksonville is one of the most penalized teams in the league and is giving the ball away 1.2 times per game this year. Both of these factors are huge when taking big totals as playing behind the sticks is a killer for Over backers. With the Texans, it's their inability to get first downs, as Houston is converting just 34 percent of their third downs this year (27th in the league).
Last week, versus the Vikings and their bottom-10 defense, Watson and the Texans converted just three-of-13 third downs. These defenses aren’t great, (hence the high total), but we aren't betting on either of these offenses either. One or two drives stalling out near midfield could be the difference.
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Shortest TD pick
At first glance, the shortest TD prop looks like a bargain. The Over 1.5 yards is usually priced better than the Under and even seasoned football viewers would think there can’t be that many one-yard TDs.
That is not the case.
Houston has had a one-yard TD in two of its four games this year, while the Jaguars have scored two and allowed one. A big factor in this bet is getting a pass interference call in the end zone. With Jacksonville likely starting some second-string defenders, the probability of this increases and with a high total expected, we should see lots of passing. Jacksonville has seven pass interference penalties already this year, which is the second-most in the league.
PREDICTION: Shortest TD scored Under 1.5 yards (-115)
Jaguars vs Texans betting card
- Houston -6 (-110)
- Under 54 (-110)
- Shortest TD scored Under 1.5 yards (-115)
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