One of the biggest questions leading into the NFL Conference Championship Games is the health of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts after he sustained a knee injury during last week’s win over the Los Angeles Rams.
It’s unlikely the dual-threat QB is 100% healthy, but after checking the Jalen Hurts odds, I think there’s been an overreaction to his rushing yards total.
Here are my top NFL picks for Hurts & Co. as they're set to face the Washington Commanders later this afternoon.
Jalen Hurts player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 31.5 rushing yards
(-120 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Over 31.5 rushing yards
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
(+525 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jalen Hurts prop pick
My best bet
Over 31.5 rushing yards (-120 at Caesars)
My analysis
There’s been an over-adjustment in the rushing yards market for Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.
He is trading at 31.5 rushing yards at Caesars, which is his lowest total of the season, with the previous shortest number at 34.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 and Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. He cleared the number in each of those games and has run for 33 or more yards in 13 of 17 for the season.
Of course, Hurts also ran for 39 yards against the Washington Commanders in Week 11, and then he finished with 41 rushing yards on three carries and played just 12 offensive snaps in Week 16 before exiting the contest with a concussion.
The decreased total for the NFC Conference Championship is the result of the injury he sustained in the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams, and without question, Hurts’ mobility was impacted after he was sacked and headed to the medical tent in the third quarter.
Still, he didn’t miss a snap and will have an entire week to recover.
Additionally, the Eagles QB hasn’t been the only quarterback to have success on the ground against the Commanders. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones topped 30 yards in both meetings, while Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rushed for 39 yards, and Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams finished with 47 rushing yards.
Otherwise, the only true dual-threat signal caller Washington faced and held in check was limiting Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray to a single three-yard run in a 42-14 Commanders upset in Week 4 in which the Cards pulled away in the second quarter and never looked back.
There’s definitely potential that Hurts is limited and playing at less than 100%, but with the season on the line, I expect him to be on the move — especially with the potential for another two-week layoff ahead of Super Bowl LIX.
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Jalen Hurts same-game parlay
Jalen Hurts Over 31.5 rushing yards
Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
While I’m a big believer in the Philadelphia defense, I still expect the Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels to succeed and put points on the board to push Hurts and the Eagles to score.
As a result, I’m eyeing Hurts in the touchdown passes markets because I expect Washington to be focused on stalling the Philadelphia rushing attack in the red zone while also remaining susceptible to big plays.
The Commanders allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback among playoff-bound teams during the regular season and finished 29th in PFF defense-grade and 27th in PFF coverage grade.
Hurts has a nice complement of weapons at his disposal, too. Wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have combined for 47 touchdown catches in the past three years, and tight end Dallas Goedert is a favorite to find paydirt of colleague Jason Logan.
Add that running backs Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell are both capable pass-catchers out of the backfield, and I'm drawn to the +155 odds Hurts throws a pair of touchdowns Sunday.
Returning to Brown, he’s turned his 10 postseason targets into just three receptions for 24 yards the past two weeks, so we’re landing a nice multiplier in this same-game parlay by adding his anytime touchdown prop also priced at +155.
Plus, Brown did score in each of his final three regular-season games, including going good for eight receptions for 97 yards and a score in Week 16 against Washington.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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