The New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals will wrap up Week 14 at State Farm Stadium on Monday Night Football.
If the Cardinals want to play spoiler against the playoff-eligible Patriots, they’ll need a big effort from running back James Conner. With that in mind, here are my three favorite James Conner props for Monday, December 12.
Be sure to also check out Josh Inglis' three favorite MNF player prop bets as well as Jason Logan's MNF full-game betting preview!
James Conner MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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James Conner MNF props
Conner gets stuffed
The Patriots’ defense has proven to be one of the best units in the NFL this season when it comes to shutting down opposing running backs, and Monday night’s tilt should prove no different.
Bill Belichick’s stoppers surprisingly gave up 64 rushing yards to the Buffalo Bills’ James Cook last Thursday and another 51 yards to Devin Singletary. However, they’ll have had some extra time in the film room to wipe that bad taste out of their mouths and prepare for James Conner. Including that Week 13 contest, New England is allowing only 79.5 rushing yards per game to running backs — fifth in football.
Conner went off for 120 yards on the ground against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, by far his best effort of the season, but bettors haven’t been fooled so far. His rushing yards total for Monday Night Football has been bet down at most sites from as high as 62.5.
It would seem astute prop bettors noticed that Conner took advantage of a Chargers' defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (134.9) in Week 13. It’s also worth noting that he toted the rock 25 times in that affair, more than double his season average for carries going into that tilt (12 per game).
Prior to last Sunday, Conner averaged a mere 44.5 rushing yards per game. It seems like Under bettors have plenty of leeway in this market.
Prop: Under 61.5 rushing yards (-120)
Nothing easy
Conner’s rushing yards total does not seem like a “boom-or-bust” proposition in this spot thanks to a stingy Pats' defense. That’s why bettors should look to double dip while keeping their wagers somewhat varied by targeting the Under on Conner’s rushing and receiving yards total. The line is set anywhere between 80.5 and 85.5 as of Sunday morning, depending on where you look.
Aside from being stymied by a superior group of stoppers, another reason to suspect Conner will go below his rushing total is the potential beginning of a troubling ball-control trend.
While the Pitt product has scored a touchdown in three straight games, he’s also fumbled in two straight contests, losing one. If Conner puts the ball on the ground again in this spot, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury could find it difficult to keep him in the game if things are close in the fourth quarter.
As for Conner’s receiving total (listed as a separate wager anywhere from 18.5 to 20.5 yards, depending on your sportsbook of choice), that should be a low number once again. He’s averaging only 19 receiving yards per game in 2022, with a season-high of 29 yards coming in Week 1. Since returning from injury on Nov. 6, Conner is averaging only 17 receiving yards per game.
Prop: Under 85.5 receiving + rushing yards (-120)
Nothing pretty
One reason why New England allows so few rushing yards per game is the fact it seldom lets tailbacks get loose in the secondary. That should be the case once more on Monday night.
Conner’s season-long rush this year is 20 yards, recorded against the porous Chargers last week. Prior to that, Conner had only three runs of 13 or more yards this season.
James Cook burned the Patriots for a 28-yard run last Thursday, but before that contest, this unit went four straight games without allowing a halfback to reach a single run of at least 13 yards. The New York Jets’ Michael Carter had the longest run of any tailback in that span with an 11-yard scamper in Week 8.
The Vikings’ Dalvin Cook was the most noteworthy running back the Pats faced in that stretch, and they kept him to 42 yards on 22 carries, with a paltry long rush of six yards. This prop appeals at solid odds on the Under.
Prop: Longest rush Under 12.5 yards (+100)
