The Detroit Lions got their first NFL odds playoff win since 1991 last week, and it was even sweeter for Jared Goff that it came against the team that dumped in right before winning a Super Bowl.
The Lions are heavy favorites in the Divisional Round odds and will be looking to continue their run in the Super Bowl odds when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We take a closer look at the Jared Goff odds and give our best free NFL picks for Buccaneers vs. Lions on January 21.
Be sure to also check out our Buccaneers vs. Lions betting picks and Buccaneers vs. Lions prop picks!
Jared Goff Divisional Round prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jared Goff Divisional Round prop pick
Under 0.5 interceptions (-106)
Jared Goff was excellent in his first playoff game for the Detroit Lions last week when he threw for 277 yards and a touchdown on 22/27 passing against his former team. In fact, it was Goff's best individual performance in seven career playoff games.
Now Goff will get another home game, where he has averaged a 70.1% completion percentage and 279.7 passing yards this season. That also includes a 20/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, as the Lions QB gets ready for a mediocre Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary.
The Bucs ranked 29th in the league in passing yards allowed at 248.9 per game. Last week, Hurts threw for 250 yards and no interceptions despite missing A.J. Brown and then Julio Jones for most of the contest. Tampa also ranks in the bottom half of the league in forcing interceptions with 13 on the season, including being shut out in that aspect in four of nine road games.
The last time Goff played Todd Bowles' defense, the former number-one overall pick threw for 353 yards on 30/44 passing with two touchdowns and no turnovers. I expect Detroit to lead for the majority of this contest, meaning even less passing from Goff and fewer opportunities for Tampa's secondary to force an interception.
Prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (-106 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
Jared Goff Divisional Round same-game parlay
Jared Goff Under 0.5 interceptions
Under 49.5
Josh Reynolds Over 40.5 receiving yards
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I have a couple of plays that I find appealing in this game, especially when combined with our best bet.
Let's begin with the total for this game. In their previous matchup, these two teams only produced a total of 26 points. Notably, that game featured just one turnover, so it wasn't an "unlucky" Under. The Under has also prevailed in 12 out of 18 Bucs games this season.
Additionally, I'm eyeing an underappreciated target for Goff. Josh Reynolds may not garner much attention, but Goff consistently looks his way. Last weekend against the Rams, Reynolds received seven targets and caught five of them for 80 yards.
I expect Reynolds to remain a focal point for Goff on Sunday, and his receiving yardage should see an increase based on the sheer volume of targets he receives.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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