When the Detroit Lions received Jared Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade three years ago, he seemed like a stop-gap solution at quarterback. Instead, the Lions have built around Goff, and he has led them to just their second NFC Championship game in franchise history.
Although Detroit is a 7.5-point road underdog against the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers in Championship Sunday odds, Goff and the Lions have been counted out before.
I break down the NFL odds for Detroit's franchise QB and give my best NFL picks for the Jared Goff odds market.
For more coverage regarding the latest Super Bowl odds, be sure to check out our Lions vs. 49ers betting preview.
Jared Goff NFC Championship prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jared Goff NFC Championship prop pick
Over 255.5 passing yards (-114)
Although the San Francisco 49ers have a highly-regarded stop unit, the Detroit Lions offense matches up well against it. Since Week 8, the 49ers are 20th in defensive success rate and 19th in defensive dropback success rate. Over the same period, the Lions are third in the league in dropback success rate and Goff is sixth among all quarterbacks in adjusted EPA/play.
San Francisco's defense is also a modest 18th in the NFL in pressure rate and 20th in sack percentage (6.83%). Detroit's offensive line has allowed a sack on just 5.06% of dropbacks and should give Goff enough time in the pocket to find receivers.
There's the ongoing narrative that Goff struggles outdoors, but in 66 career games outside, he has a solid passer rating of 89.5 while averaging 260.2 passing yards per game. Of course, Goff like most QBs doesn't perform as well in wet conditions or extreme wind, but the forecast for Sunday is projecting a balmy 67 degrees, so don't expect the Cali boy to shrink.
The Over/Under on Goff's passing yards has ticked up as high as 260.5 at some books but can still be found as low as 255.5 at FanDuel. Goff has gone Over that number in his last six games and he's averaging 281.7 passing yards per game over that span.
Game script could also play a role, and with the 49ers installed as 7.5-point favorites for Sunday, there's a chance that they build an early lead and force Detroit to abandon the run. That would make it even more likely for Goff to eclipse his passing yards total, especially since he's thrown for more than 270 yards in four of Detroit's five losses this season.
Prop: Jared Goff Over 255.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
Jared Goff NFC Championship same-game parlay
Jared Goff Over 255.5 passing yards
Jared Goff Under 1.5 rushing yards
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 2.5 receiving yards
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Goff picked up six rushing yards on six carries last week but both of those numbers were massive outliers for the pocket passer. He had 0 or negative rushing yards in each of his previous seven games and saw a total of just nine carries in that span.
Even against teams with a strong pass rush, Goff rarely looks to make plays with his legs. In addition, the Niners boast a disciplined defensive front that does an excellent job of maintaining contain and seldom over-pursue.
When San Fran does bring the heat, it's far more likely that Goff will look for an outlet receiver like Jahmyr Gibbs rather than take off himself. Gibbs has been a dynamic weapon as a rookie and Lions OC Ben Johnson will undoubtedly try to get him the ball in space in this matchup.
Gibbs hauled in four passes for 40 yards last week and had four receptions for 43 yards in the Wild Card round. San Francisco's defense has also been vulnerable to pass-catching backs, with the 49ers ranked 25th in the league in receiving yards allowed per game (36.8) and 28th in receptions allowed per game (5.3) to the position.
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