The Detroit Lions welcome the Green Bay Packers to Ford Field for a critical NFC North matchup on Thursday Night Football.
My top NFL picks for the Jared Goff odds expect the Lions quarterback to have to attack through the air early and often to compensate for a banged-up Detroit defense on Thursday, December 5.
Jared Goff TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 243.5 passing yards
(-114 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Goff 250+ passing yards
Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
LaPorta 40+ receiving yards
(+310 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jared Goff TNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 243.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The injuries to the Detroit Lions defense are piling up, and it should lead to their Thursday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers turning into a high-scoring, back-and-forth bout.
FanDuel sportsbook already has the total at 51.5, which is the highest of any Week 14 game.
Detroit has garnered all kinds of attention for its running game this season, and backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have the Lions ranked fourth in rushing yards per game and third in EPA per rush.
Still, I’m anticipating Jared Goff having to air it out early and often to keep pace with the Packers and compensate for the shorthanded Detroit defense. Plus, the success of the ground game only makes it easier for Goff to attack vertically.
The Packers aren’t a nasty pass rush to go up against, either.
Green Bay ranks 28th in pass-rush win rate and 23rd in PFF pass-rush grade, and the Packers have the sixth-lowest blitz rate (18.8%) while allowing the second-highest dropback success rate to opposing QBs.
Goff has thrown for a career-high 8.8 yards per attempt, a 71.8 completion percentage, and the ninth-year QB has also averaged 255.7 passing yards per home game compared to 241.3 per on the highway.
Finally, Packers top cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee) has missed three of the past four games with a partially torn PCL, and I’m expecting him to have trouble keeping up Thursday. If he even plays at all...
Jared Goff TNF same-game parlay
Jared Goff 250+ passing yards
Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Sam LaPorta 40+ receiving yards
Goff has thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight of 12 games this season, including in four consecutive home games. He also ranks fifth with 22 touchdown passes for the campaign, and the Detroit offense has go-to options Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the red zone and big-play threats Jameson Williams and Gibbs in the fold.
Speaking of LaPorta, the second-year tight end has garnered 18 targets across the past three games, but he’s only turned the looks into nine receptions for 91 yards. Still, three have gone for touchdowns, and Green Bay hasn’t been tough on the position.
The Packers have allowed seven TEs to go for 40 or more receiving yards this season, including allowing 248 yards on 21 receptions the past three weeks. Green Bay has also surrendered the sixth-highest yards per target (8.61) and second-highest catch percentage (81.8%) to the position.
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