Wild Card Weekend closes out in primetime at Raymond James Stadium when the Washington Commanders face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Although the Jayden Daniels odds have headlined the Rookie of the Year board all season long, I expect the rookie quarterback to cough the ball up in his first playoff start.
Find out more in my latest NFL picks for Sunday, January 12.
Jayden Daniels player prop picks
- Best bet
Daniels Over 0.5 interceptions
(-125 at Caesars) - SGP Pick
Daniels Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over 50.5
Irving o89.5 rush yards & Ekeler o44.5 rush + rec yards
(+485 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jayden Daniels prop pick
My best bet
Over 1.5 interceptions (-125 at Caesars)
My analysis
Sunday's Wild Card game marks a rematch from Week 1 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prevailed 37-20 at home.
That was Jayden Daniels’ first career NFL game, and it was clear the Washington Commanders were trying to get Daniels comfortable by sticking to the run game. However, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has really opened the passing game lately.
Daniels has attempted at least 30 passes in eight of his last nine games, excluding Week 18 when he only played the first half. Additionally, he has thrown seven of his nine interceptions during the second half of the season, with all of them coming against zone coverage. The Bucs run zone on 84.0% of dropbacks this season, which is the second most in the NFL.
Rookie quarterbacks are known for making mistakes in their first playoff game and I like the odds of Daniels following that role on Sunday night.
Jayden Daniels same-game parlay
Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over 50.5
Irving o89.5 rushing yards & Ekeler o44.5 rushing + receiving yards
Prior to Week 18, Daniels had racked up multiple touchdown passes in each of his last five starts. The Bucs have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL since their Week 11 bye, and Daniels has thrown for the seventh most touchdowns in the league against the blitz.
These two teams combined for 57 points in their last matchup, and both offenses have been clicking down the stretch. The Commanders boasted the fifth-ranked scoring offense, while the Bucs finished fourth.
I also like Bucky Irving to continue his strong form and reach 90+ rushing yards against the 30th-ranked run defense. Meanwhile, veteran Commanders running back Austin Ekeler could see some extra snaps due to the likely trailing game script.
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