Two NFC teams that are closing in on playoff berths will collide in Week 17 as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Washington Commanders for Sunday Night Football.
Jayden Daniels has enjoyed a tremendous rookie campaign and has every chance of putting up more big numbers against a Falcons defense that hasn’t done much to slow opposing quarterbacks.
Let’s dig into all the best Jayden Daniels odds and NFL picks for Sunday Night Football on Sunday, December 29.
Jayden Daniels SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
(+100 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over 220.5 passing yards
Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown
(+300 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jayden Daniels SNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
The presumptive NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels has exceeded even the highest expectations put on him after coming out of LSU.
In his rookie season, Daniels has led the Washington Commanders to a 10-5 record, throwing for 22 touchdowns and just eight interceptions while completing 69.7% of his passes — not to mention his outstanding production as a runner.
That dual-threat excellence was evident even early in the season, but his passing numbers have only gotten better as the year has gone on. The Commanders now have him throwing more regularly and with more confidence, leading him to toss 12 touchdown passes in his last four games. That includes his five-touchdown outburst in a win over the Eagles last weekend.
Daniels now gets to test his arm against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been mediocre at best in 2024. Atlanta’s biggest weakness has clearly been against the passing game, where the Falcons allow opponents to complete 69.8% of their passes — second worst in the NFL — and throw to a 97.2 quarterback rating, also among the league’s worst numbers.
This isn’t all on the secondary, either. The Falcons struggle to generate an effective pass rush, ranking last in the NFL with 1.7 sacks per game. That means Daniels should have time to make his reads and make comfortable throws on Sunday.
Perhaps just as importantly for us, it should mean less scrambling to get out of trouble for the Washington quarterback.
I’m expecting Daniels to light up Atlanta with his arm rather than with his legs. He’s already thrown 2+ touchdowns in each of his last four games, and I expect him to make it five in a row.
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Jayden Daniels SNF same-game parlay
Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Jayden Daniels Over 220.5 passing yards
Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown
I chose the passing touchdowns prop as my best bet, as I love the even-money odds on an outcome I think will happen far more than half the time. Still, any bet on Daniels to succeed in the passing game is a good one, and that makes it pretty simple to put together a solid SGP for Sunday Night Football.
We’ll throw in a bet on him to go Over his passing yardage total, which is set at 220.5. Everything I said about the Atlanta defense applies again here, as even though the Falcons don’t give up a ton of huge plays in the passing game, they allow opposing offenses to move the ball through the air continually.
Atlanta gives up 223.4 passing yards per game, and Daniels has thrown for 221+ yards in three of his last four outings, as well as nine times overall this season.
Since we need Daniels to throw a couple of touchdowns, it makes sense to add in a bet on his most reliable target. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin is having an excellent year, having accumulated 1,029 receiving yards while tallying 12 touchdowns.
He’s also been the biggest beneficiary of Daniels’ recent outburst, catching six balls for scores over the past four weeks. If Daniels has another big game, McLaurin should continue his touchdown streak.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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