The New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts will kick off Week 9 Thursday night. Can Mike White and the Jets make it two in a row? Can Carson Wentz overcome some miscues from last week to get the Colts back on track?
We put in the time and did the heavy lifting so you don't have to and have found four solid props for Thursday night’s Week 9 battle.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Thursday night’s Week 9 matchup between the Jets and the Colts.
Jets vs Colts prop picks
- Carter Over 34.5 receiving yards
- Johnson Over 19.5 receiving yards
- Taylor Under 84.5 rushing yards
- Pittman Over 5.5 receptions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jets vs Colts TNF props
Backfield Passing Game
Jets quarterback Mike White led all QBs last week in passing yards with 405 yards. Despite the high yardage, White built those numbers on short passes as running backs accounted for 166 of those yards and slot receiver Jamison Crowder had 84 yards.
Getting the backs involved in the short passing game could be a smart game plan for the Jets Thursday, as the Colts have the best defensive success rate against the run and are Top 10 in yards per rush attempt allowed.
Carter’s receiving total is available at 34.5 yards and is creeping up with some books as high as 38.5. Carter played 38 snaps in the passing game last week and had an incredible 44 percent targets per route run. As double-digit underdogs, the Jets could be forced to abandon the run Thursday.
No. 2 RB Ty Johnson also got peppered on his routes and saw 0.43 targets per route run. His receiving prop total sits at a modest 19.5 yards and is a great second option if the Carter receiving prop gets above 40 yards. Johnson saw eight targets in the 17 passing snaps he played last Sunday.
For us, we’re taking both, as we doubt Mike White is taking plenty of shots downfield Thursday, especially with that offensive line.
PICK: Michale Carter Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) and Ty Johnson Over 19.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Too High for Taylor
The Jets sit 25th in success rate against the run, have the No. 24 DVOA rush defense and are giving up nearly 130 yards rushing per game on the road this season. Jonathan Taylor has become one of the best running backs in the league, averaging over 80 rushing yards per game and posting 100-yard rushing games in three of his last five weeks, but his rushing total is getting a little high for us.
Taylor’s rushing prop is as high as 84.5 yards. Over the last two weeks, his total hasn’t opened higher than 67 yards and he's coming off an average game on the ground where he amassed just 70 yards on 16 carries.
Taylor is not a 20-carry back and has seen more than 16 carries just once in his last seven games. The Jets still hold opposing running backs to 4.0 yards per carry which is a Top-10 mark, while injuries to the Indy O-line are prevalent with guard Quenton Nelson highly questionable.
We don’t hit Unders often, but if the Jets can hold Joe Mixon to 33 yards on 14 carries, perhaps they’ll take that same approach on Thursday and make Carson Wentz beat them in the air, which may be a great idea for win No. 3.
PICK: Jonathan Taylor Under 84.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
One in a Pittman
Carson Wentz did not have a good game last week. His interceptions were atrocious and he should be shouldering a lot of the blame for the OT loss to the Titans. One thing we learned from that game is that Wentz eyes receiver Michael Pittman all over the field. Of the quarterback’s 51 passes, 15 went Pittman’s way, as the receiver had seven more targets than the second-most targeted player in Zach Pascal.
The 10 catches were a season-high for Pittman, who won’t have to contest with T.Y Hilton for targets either as Hilton has been ruled out for TNF with a concussion. Pittman leads the team in target share and air yards and faces a Jets’ defense that is 20th in defensive dropback success rate and is allowing 27.7 completions per game over the last three weeks.
The New York front seven can cause some pressure as well, with a 30 percent pressure rate, which should keep Wentz uncomfortable and hitting shorter routes again this week. Pittman may have caught 10 balls in Week 8, but he totaled just 86 yards. With an average target depth of just 11 yards, Pittman should be the focal point of the offense again on shorter routes if New York decides to plug the run like they did last week.
New York likes to play zone on early downs, which should help Pittman rack up some underneath receptions if Indy decides to pass on early downs. Pittman can also find himself in one-on-one coverage on third downs, as the Jets tend to blitz more on third downs.
Pittman’s reception total is on the high side of 5.5, but with Hilton out this game and it possibly being a closer battle than the spread is predicting, we’re hitting the Over here and loved how Wentz followed Pittman around the field all day versus the Titans.
PICK: Michael Pittman Over 5.5 receptions (+110 at bet365)
Season to date: 51-57 -6.20 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
