We’re only three weeks into the schedule, and it’s already become a battle of attrition with league-wide injuries testing the depth charts. The New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts aren’t immune to those ailments, with plenty of players banged up for their Week 3 matchup.
The NFL betting odds have the Colts pegged as big 10.5-point home favorites coming off a convincing win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2, helping bettors forget about a messy loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in their opener.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jets vs. Colts on September 27.
New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts betting preview
Weather
Weather will not be a factor at indoor Lucas Oil Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other matchups with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jets: Quincy Wilson CB (Out), Breshad Perriman WR (Out), George Fant OL (Out), Joe Flacco QB (Out), Arthur Maulet CB (Out), Jamison Crowder WR (Out).
Colts: Rock Ya-Sin CB (Out), Matthew Adams LB (Out), Malik Hooker FS (Out), Parris Campbell WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Jets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Colts.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Yeesh, 10.5 is a lot of points.
The lookahead line for this matchup hit the board last week at Colts -7. But after the events of Week 2, oddsmakers tacked on some extra points and reposted the official opening line at Indianapolis -9.5. It didn’t take long for cash on the home side to push this through the key number and sit at -10.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
There are big injuries on both sides, but it looks like New York’s skill positions are scraping the bottom of the barrel with receivers Chris Hogan, Jamison Crowder, and Breshad Perriman all listed as questionable – on top of pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell being sidelined for the immediate future.
Those issues soften the blow for Indianapolis, which just lost starting free safety Malik Hooker for the season. The Colts pass defense has long been an issue, but they played much better against the Vikings in Week 2 – for what it’s worth – getting a notable boost from the pass rush, which picked up three sacks and registered seven QB hurries. New York could be missing starting center Connor McGovern, who is nursing a hamstring injury.
I just don’t see how the Jets offense produces enough points to challenge this spread. Pending some points off turnovers from the Gang Green defense, laying the 10.5 looks like the right move.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
In most games with a large spread, your mind instantly jumps to the Over, knowing that the favorite will need to score plenty of points to cover. However, given the Jets’ offensive issues and missing pieces, the Colts could pitch something close to a shutout come Sunday.
Indianapolis did lose top RB Marlon Mack for the season in Week 1 but has a very capable combo of Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins, who combined for 141 yards on 35 carries in the win over Minnesota. That helped control the clock for more than 38 minutes and sapped all the energy out of the Vikings.
New York was flattened by the 49ers’ ground game last Sunday, allowing 182 yards on 29 carries despite knowing San Francisco had no choice but to run the ball with starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo leaving injured. This week, however, when they do sell out to stop the run, Rivers will be waiting for them.
The Colts’ passing game is missing playmakers as well - with WR Parris Campbell out and TE Jack Doyle questionable - and hasn’t been outstanding through two games, ranking 19th in Football Outsiders passing offense DVOA.
PREDICTION: Under 44 (-110)
First half pick
The Jets could be bringing a spaghetti noodle to a gunfight in Week 3 and have been slow starters even with top skill players on the field. New York has managed just six total points in the first half through two games.
The Jets snuck in a field goal just under the halftime horn against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, then collected a 41-yard field goal in the first quarter versus San Francisco last Sunday. The Colts limited Minnesota to a mere three points last week and pitched a first-quarter shutout versus Jacksonville before giving up two touchdowns in the second frame.
With the Indianapolis offense looking to establish the rushing attack early on, and the Colts defense riding the momentum of Week 2’s performance, points could be hard to come by for Adam Gase and this desperate team. The Colts were also the fifth-best first-quarter defense at home last season, giving up only 8.2 average points in the opening 30 minutes.
PREDICTION: New York Under 7.5 first-half points (-150)
Jets vs Colts betting card
- Indianapolis -10.5 (-110)
- Under 44 (-110)
- New York Under 7.5 first-half points (-150)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Jets vs. Colts picks, you could win $50.74 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
