Jets vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 2: Disruptive Defenses Rule the Day

If the NFL is in fact scripted, someone in the writers’ room is not a New York Jets fan.

No team entered 2023 with higher hopes than the Jets. The long-suffering franchise appeared as if it was finally crawling its way out of the dark depths of the AFC, adding a Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers this offseason.

Rodgers’ Big Apple debut — and perhaps his entire Jets career — would last just four snaps. He suffered an Achilles injury mere minutes into New York’s Monday Night Football showcase in Week 1, a game the Jets miraculously won on a 65-yard punt return touchdown in overtime. That’s one hell of a plot twist.

Gang Green has seen its 2023 script flip from "redemption story" to "survival tale," and it's only Week 2. New York and formerly demoted QB1 Zach Wilson visit the Dallas Cowboys on a short week this Sunday.

The Cowboys decimated the Jets' MetLife brethren, the New York Giants, shutting out their divisional rivals 40-0 in a soggy Sunday Night Football flogging in Week 1. Dallas was incredibly disruptive, recording seven sacks, two interceptions, forcing five fumbles (recovering four), and scoring touchdowns on both defense and special teams.

I run down this patchwork point spread and Over/Under total and give my best NFL picks for Jets at Cowboys on September 17.

Jets vs Cowboys odds

Jets vs Cowboys predictions

This game went from a potential Super Bowl preview to an episode of “Black Mirror” — a little dark, disturbing, and you have no idea what the hell’s going to happen.

Sportsbooks are being cagey with the way they roll out markets for Jets at Cowboys, trickling out alternative NFL odds and NFL props at an intravenous pace after Rodgers’ injury shook up the whole damn league.

The Jets offense is in shambles with Zach Wilson under center and new OC Nathaniel Hackett crying himself to sleep. As for the Cowboys, we didn’t really get to see what Brian Schottenheimer’s playbook or Mike McCarthy’s playcalling was all about due to the Dallas squash on Sunday Night Football.

What we do know is we have two Top-5 defenses on the field in Arlington and a total sinking like a stone, moving from the adjusted number of 41.5 points to as low as 37 on Thursday morning.

Both stop units are great at creating chaos and it starts with their ability to get pressure on the passer. The Cowboys and Jets ranked third and seventh, respectively, in total sacks last season and were also first and third in pressure rate. That carried over to Week 1, with Dallas drumming up seven sacks on a pressure rate of 38.6% and Gang Green scoring five sacks at a rate of 24%.

We also know how sneaky these secondaries are. Dallas and New York were No. 4 and No. 6 in EPA allowed per dropback in 2022 and were second and fifth in opposing passer rating. Again, those numbers held up in the openers, with the Cowboys sending poor Daniel Jones to the "sunken place" and Josh Allen throwing three INTs while lugging a Week 1 rating of 62.7.

Another consistent element of these defenses is red zone fortitude. They both finished last year among the Top 5 in opponent TD rate inside their own 20-yard line and forced a ton of field goals, with New York producing a league-high 2.5 FGAs per game and Dallas close behind at 2.3. Given Wilson and Dak Prescott are playing under new playbooks and facing really sound defenses, miscues are bound to happen early and often.

Touchdowns could be hard to come by if the total holds up, at least on the offensive side. The first score three-way market had a TD as the first scoring method as high as -180 earlier this week, but that has since shrunk to -160.

A field goal, however, was as big as +135 to be the first scoring play of the game, and that has been bet down to +120. Given the quality of the stop units and the unknowns on offense, this is still a probable plus-money prop rooted in reality — unlike the rest of this matchup.

My best bet: First scoring play: Field Goal (+120 at bet365)

Jets vs Cowboys same-game parlay

First score: field goal

Allen Lazard Over 30.5 receiving yards

Dallas ML

+425 at bet365

The dwindling total hints that touchdowns could be at a premium with two great defenses on the field. That has someone settling for a field goal to open the scoring.

Allen Lazard was targeted four times for two catches and 46 yards in Week 1. His Week 2 projections are positive, with a consensus of 42 yards and a ceiling of 44.5. The point spread says the Jets will be playing from behind, leaving Wilson to throw a lot again.

This spread has climbed almost a touchdown from the Rodgers injury and another 1.5 points off that initial adjustment. We’ll keep it simple and avoid the big chalk, taking the Cowboys to win outright.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jets vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis

This was one of the highlighted games when the 2023 schedule came out and look-ahead lines pegged it as much. Dallas was a 2.5-point home favorite on those early odds back in the offseason and that line moved to -3 after the Cowboys crushed the Giants on Sunday Night Football.

After Rodgers' injury was official, books reopened the Week 2 odds with Dallas as 8-point home chalk and the betting market quickly ran that to as high as -9.5 by Thursday morning.

That initial adjustment and early opinion from bettors have Rodgers’ worth to the spread around 6.5 points. My NFL power rating produced a spread closer to Cowboys -4 with Rodgers in, but given his worth to the line, Dallas could be a double-digit favorite.

I’m not sure if this spread will go past Cowboys -9.5. We have seen some buyback at that number with some operators down to -9 and other books are dealing an expensive +9.5 for New York, meaning it would take some significant money to move to the key number of 10. According to early Covers Consensus percentages, 54% of the pick count is coming in on the Cowboys.

The one thing anchoring this spread is the Jets defense, which was the real story in Week 1. New York limited a potent Buffalo Bills offense to only one touchdown and three field goals while intercepting Allen three times and forcing two fumbles (one lost).

Entering the season, New York was heralded as one of the better stop units in the league, and with Rodgers providing support on the scoreboard, this defense was expected to shine. However, under Wilson, the offense could once again struggle to stay on the field (went just 5-for-13 on third down on MNF) and leave the defense to play added minutes. Even with all those takeaways from the defense, Gang Green owned just 27:50 of possession Monday.

The Cowboys offense can’t get cocky after a walk in the park in Week 1. Dallas held a 16-0 lead over the Giants in the first quarter and a 26-0 cushion at halftime, leaving the playbook to run more simple clock-eating sets than really taking this new Brian Schottenheimer offense for a rip.

Prescott, who sat in the fourth quarter, was just 13-for-24 for 143 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. That latter stat is one the Cowboys must be wary of against the Jets’ ball-hawking defense. Prescott led the NFL in interceptions last season and this new offense was designed to get the ball out of his hands quicker, utilizing a West Coast style of short passes. There's also a potential gap in Prescott's pass protection with OL Tyler Smith missing practice this week with a hamstring injury.

As for Wilson, he finished the Monday Night Football outing with 140 yards on 14 of 21 passing with one touchdown and an interception. The Jets attack gets very short and compact with Wilson at the wheel. He had an average depth of target of 4.2 yards in Week 1 and New York was forced to run the ball 28 times — 52.83% of their offensive snaps.

Wilson ranked near the bottom of most advanced QB metrics in 2022 before getting the hook in favor of backup Mike White midway through the season. New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was part of the Rodgers overhaul, customizing this playbook to the veteran QB's specifications. New York now has a short week to adjust the playbook and travel to face the most disruptive defense in the land.

This Over/Under total reflects two solid stop units taking the field in Week 2. With Rodgers under center, the number was 46.5 on the look-ahead markets in the summer. But after his injury, the O/U adjusted to 41.5 and has come down as low as 37.5 points as of Thursday.

Dallas nearly eclipsed the 44-point total for Sunday night on its own, but needed a defensive and special teams score to put up 40 points. The Jets’ wild Monday game with Buffalo played below a closing total of 44.5 points, even with the extra special teams TD in overtime.

According to Covers Consensus data, 54% of picks are taking the Over for this diminutive O/U number.

Jets vs Cowboys betting trend to know

Big spreads haven’t been an issue for the Cowboys, who are 15-8 ATS (65%) when set as favorites of a touchdown or more since Dak Prescott took over at quarterback in 2016. Move that mark to -9 or higher — where this spread sits—– and Dallas is 7-3 ATS as monster chalk in that same span. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Cowboys.

Jets vs Cowboys game info

Jets vs Cowboys latest injuries

Jets vs Cowboys weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic