Week 15 in the NFL season features an AFC East showdown between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. The Jets are one of the worst teams in the league but the Phins are still in playoff contention and will need to keep rolling if they want to see the postseason.
NFL betting lines opened with Miami as an 8.5-point home favorite before shifting to -9.5. Here are our best free NFL betting picks and predictions for Jets vs. Dolphins on Sunday, December 19, with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Jets vs Dolphins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Dolphins being favored by 8.5 points with the Over/Under at 43. Early money has come in on Miami and the Under moving the line to Dolphins -9.5 and the total to 41.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Jets vs Dolphins predictions
- Prediction: Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 41 (-110)
- Best bet: Parker Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
Predictions made on 12/17/2021 at 2 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jets vs Dolphins game info
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
• Date: Sunday, December 19, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Jets at Dolphins betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Jets: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G (Questionable), Sheldon Rankins DT (Questionable), George Fant T (Doubtful), Elijah Moore WR (Out), Mike White QB (Out), Mekhi Becton OT (Out), Corey Davis WR (Out), Marcus Maye S (Out), Lamarcus Joyner S (Out).
Dolphins: Austin Jackson T (Questionable), Adam Shaheen TE (Questionable), Jaylen Waddle WR (Out), Phillip Lindsay RB (Out), Salvon Ahmed RB (Out), Jason McCourty DB (Out), Will Fuller WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jets are 1-9-1 against the spread in their last 11 meetings with the Dolphins. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Dolphins.
Jets vs Dolphins picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Jets are coming off yet another loss by more than two touchdowns (their seventh such defeat of the season), this time against the New Orleans Saints. They are now 3-10 SU and ATS and look like an absolute disaster on both sides of the ball, ranking last in the league in defensive DVOA and 24th in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
After starting the year off with an ugly 1-7 SU record (2-5-1 ATS), the Dolphins are back in the playoff picture after reeling off five wins in a row. They've gone a perfect 5-0 ATS during that span, which includes a 24-17 victory over the Jets at Meadowlands in Week 11.
Miami had one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league a year ago and after struggling at the start of this season, their stop unit has limited foes to just 11 points per game and 4.5 yards per play over the last five contests.
That's not the only area where Miami has shown improvement. Second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is starting to flash the massive potential that made scouts drool over him at Alabama. Over his last three games, Tua has completed 80% of his passes for 747 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. While the Phins will be without running back Phillip Lindsay who was added to the COVID-19 list they will get back two other backs in Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed who practiced on Friday.
With the Dolphins pushing for a playoff spot and making big strides on offense and defense, expect them to take care of business against a Jets team that seems to have given up on the year. Grab this line before it hits that key number at 10.
Prediction: Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Jets allow an NFL-high 30.5 ppg but they also score just 17.4 themselves, the third-lowest mark in the league.
Zach Wilson is expected to get the start at QB and the second pick in this year's draft has been an abject disappointment. Sure, he doesn't have many weapons at the skill positions and has one of the league's worst offensive lines blocking for him, but Joe Flacco and Mike White both significantly outplayed him with the same supporting cast.
Among all qualified passers, Wilson is last in the league in completion percentage (56.1) and QBR (24.0) while his 6.1 yards per pass attempt ranks third-worst. In Wilson's nine starts, the Jets are averaging a measly 13.4 ppg.
Now he faces a Dolphins defense that has been flexing its muscles in recent weeks, allowing just 196 passing yards per game over the team's five-game winning streak. Despite showing more efficiency on offense lately, the Dolphins haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, scoring 24 points or fewer in five of their last six games and going 1-5 O/U in that span.
With the Under also cashing in each of the last four meetings between these divisional rivals, back it again on Sunday.
Prediction: Under 41 (-110)
Best bet
The Dolphins were dealt a blow on Thursday when they placed wide receiver Jaylen Waddle on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The rookie speedster leads the team with 86 catches for 849 yards and it will be a huge uphill battle for him to get cleared before game time.
Fortunately for the Phins, wideout DeVante Parker returned to their lineup just before their bye after missing all of November with a hamstring injury. When healthy, Parker has been a playmaker for Miami, racking up 1,995 receiving yards over 30 games in 2019 and 2020. He has at least 62 yards receiving in each of his last three contests, including an eight-catch, 85-yard performance against the Bills' top-rated pass defense in Week 8.
Now he matches up against a Jets team that ranks last in the league in pass defense DVOA and has a trio of inexperienced corners who were taken in the latter half of the previous two drafts. With Waddle and his 8.8 targets per game likely sidelined, expect Parker to get plenty of looks and go Over his receiving yards total.
Pick: DeVante Parker Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
