Jets vs Patriots Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Baby Steps for Wilson

The New York Jets will visit the New England Patriots on Sunday in a battle between AFC East rivals that are each well-rested after a bye week.

The Jets are a surprising 6-3, and have won five of six games since Zach Wilson returned from injury to take over at quarterback. The Patriots are 5-4, and beat the Jets the last time these two teams met in Week 8.

Will New England repeat that success at home, or can Wilson lead New York to another upset win? We’ll break it all down in our NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Patriots on Sunday, November 20.

Jets vs Patriots best odds

Jets vs Patriots picks and predictions

The Jets have found themselves in the thick of the playoff race. That’s a statement few thought we’d be saying in the second half of the 2022 season. Yet New York is playing well, beating good teams, and may well battle for a divisional title down the stretch.

It’s reasonable to question just how much Zach Wilson is responsible for that success. The second-year quarterback out of BYU has thrown for just four touchdowns against five interceptions this year. 

The Jets have primarily found success thanks to their excellent defense, which is holding opponents under 20 points per game. Pro Football Focus likes the New York defense better than even the numbers suggest, rating it No. 1 in their defensive power rankings. At the same time, the Jets are dead last in the PFF offensive rankings at No. 32.

At one point, the Jets were capable of punishing teams on the ground. Breece Hall was putting up an excellent season through his first seven games, running for 5.8 yards per carry and leading the team with 463 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. But Hall suffered a torn ACL against the Denver Broncos, dealing a significant blow to the Jets’ rushing attack.

You might think that the Hall injury would tempt the Jets to lean more on Wilson. In fact, the team tried that in the first game against New England, having their quarterback throw the ball a season-high 41 times. The results weren’t great: Wilson completed just 20 passes, and while he threw two touchdowns, he also gave up three interceptions in the 22-17 loss.

Against Buffalo, the Jets went back to emphasizing what they do well: running the ball and playing defense. New York ran the ball for 174 yards, with Michael Carter and James Robinson sharing the load. Wilson threw only safe passes, completing 18 of 25 throws for 154 yards and a touchdown. The Jets protected Wilson well, giving him plenty of time to find safe, conservative options and avoid turnovers.

In general, that’s how New York has integrated Wilson into the gameplan most of this season, with fairly good success. While that has meant that he hasn’t put up exciting numbers each week, it also means there have only been two games in which he has thrown interceptions. He turned the ball over twice against the Pittsburgh Steelers in his season debut, then had the three picks against the Patriots when New York tried to run the offense through him for the first time this year.

The Jets should learn from those mistakes and feature a run-heavy attack against the Patriots on Sunday. That means there’s a good chance that — as has happened already in three of his six starts this season — Wilson might go a week without throwing a touchdown or an interception. 

We can get excellent odds on either of those outcomes. I think it’s more likely that Wilson happens to throw a redzone touchdown, so I’m going to take the Under on his interceptions prop instead. The Jets and Wilson have generally taken good care of the ball this season, and I’m confident that they won’t repeat the pass-heavy gameplan that got them in trouble against New England three weeks ago.

My best bet: Zach Wilson Under 0.5 interceptions (+163)

Jets vs Patriots spread analysis

The Patriots opened as a four-point favorite on Sunday, and while there’s been a little movement towards the Jets, it hasn’t changed the betting landscape much. As of Friday evening, New England -3.5 was the most common line on the market.

Last time these two teams met, the Patriots won by five points in New York. However, that may have been the worst game the Jets have played with Wilson under center. While the New York defense held the Patriots to just 288 yards, Nick Folk was able to convert five field goals, while the three interceptions thrown by Wilson sapped any momentum the Jets had in the passing game.

New York also got away from their normal gameplan that week, rushing the ball just 15 times for 51 yards. It would be stunning to see a repeat of that performance. Getting back to running the ball will both provide the Jets with more balance and help prevent turnovers, which were the deciding factor in the last game.

At home, the Patriots should be favored in this game. However, the truth is that this will be a tight affair that could go either way. I’d be happy to bet this game based on which side would win if the Patriots prevail by a field goal at home. Since the line still sits above that margin, I’m taking the Jets +3.5. 

Jets vs Patriots Over/Under analysis

This game currently has the lowest total of the week. After opening at 39 points, the Over/Under has actually gone down a touch to 38.5. 

That’s no surprise when you consider that these are two defensively-minded teams that don’t exactly light up the scoreboard on offense. The Patriots are giving up just 18.4 points per game, and the Jets are close behind at 19.6. Both of those totals rank among the Top 10 in the NFL.

Neither of these teams is likely to pass the ball much, at least if the Jets don’t try to repeat their failed approach from the last meeting. That means this should be a grindy, slow-paced game with relatively few possessions. The Jets have one of the best run defenses in the league, giving up just four yards per carry, and only gave up one touchdown to the Patriots last time these teams played.

It’s not fun taking the Under with a number this low, but it took a number of unusual circumstances for the first game to even get as high as 39 points. I’m on the Under for Sunday, though I’ll be sweating every time either of these teams reaches the endzone.

Jets vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Jets’ last four games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Patriots.

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