Considering the low Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football, there may be more exciting ways to spend your time in Sin City than watching the New York Jets battle the Las Vegas Raiders.
But hey, that’s why we have sports betting! A sprinkle of NFL odds goes a long way in this Week 10 odds matchup.
Las Vegas is riding high with interim head coach Antonio Pierce picking up a one-sided win over the Giants in his first game since the canning of HC Josh McDaniels.
The Raiders face another Big Apple opponent in Gang Green, who watched a three-game winning streak get struck by lightning in an ugly 27-6 loss to the L.A. Chargers last Monday.
Let's size up the SNF odds for Sunday Night Football as I give my best NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Raiders on November 12.
Be sure to also check out our SNF prop picks along with our Davante Adams odds analysis before placing your wagers!
Jets vs Raiders odds
Jets vs Raiders predictions
Sometimes you just have to steer into the skid.
Unders have been the hot bet of the 2023 NFL season, cashing in at a blind 61% clip. And the lowest of the low – totals of less than 40 points – are seeing Unders go 14-8 (64%) heading into Week 10.
I’m not betting the Under based on that trend. I’m betting the Under because these two teams are dog shit. At least on offense.
Zach Wilson gave the New York Jets faithful a moment to pause a few weeks back with improved play in the pocket. Then fell back to earth with a dud of a Week 9 effort, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt and eating eight sacks in the loss to Los Angeles inside MetLife Stadium.
Luckily, Gang Green may not need Wilson to make plays Sunday night in Sin City. The Las Vegas Raiders deep shell doesn’t give up any big hits and limits foes to an average depth of target of 6.3 yards – lowest in the land.
New York will go after the Vegas run stop, which should bleed small chunks of yardage with the clock ticking. The Jets haven’t been able to win the TOP war until now and will at least see some drives last longer than the usual three-and-out with Wilson under center.
As for Las Vegas, this offense took a hard pivot with McDaniels out the door. The Raiders were running on less than 39% of snaps before Week 9 but flipped the script with a heavy helping of handoffs, hitting the turf on 57.63% of snaps – the second-highest run rate of the week.
Vegas will take that same approach on Sunday night, hoping to cool the heat on rookie passer Aidan O’Connell who lines up across for one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.
The Jets don’t give rival passers much time in the pocket and while the Raiders offensive line has been sturdy (10th in pass block win rate), O’Connell isn’t one to test the secondary with deeper shots. His air yards and yards per completion are low and he faces a Jets secondary giving up the fifth-lowest depth of target.
No passing pop, lots of running, and two defenses that don’t give up anything deep. Sounds like a scintillating Sunday night… if you bet the Under.
My best bet: Under 36.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jets vs Raiders same-game parlay
Under 36.5
Josh Jacobs Over 63.5 rushing yards
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 receptions
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Low totals have stayed true to their projections and produced low-scoring games, with sub-40 Over/Under numbers going 8-15 O/U (65% Unders) this season.
In Game 1 without McDaniels calling plays, the Raiders ran A LOT. Las Vegas will lean into RB Josh Jacobs to take pressure off its rookie passer.
The Wilson-to-Wilson connection is the Jets' best passing play and even though he might not break off many big gains, Garrett Wilson will pick apart the Raiders' soft zone coverage underneath for six or more receptions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jets vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line before the results of Week 9 had the Raiders laying -1.5 at home in the wake of the franchise firing head coach Josh McDaniels and swapping out QB Jimmy Garoppolo for rookie QB Aidan O’Connell.
After the Silver and Black came up big for Piece against his former team and Gang Green got blown out at home, the official Week 10 spread opened Las Vegas -2.5.
However, that has since slimmed to as low as a pick’em with the market at Raiders -1 as of Thursday afternoon. Covers Consensus is showing 65% of picks on the home side, with the Jets playing on a short week.
We do have to take Las Vegas’ Week 9 win with a grain of salt (which is usually followed by a shot of Tequila in Sin City), as they roughed up a Giants team starting a third-string QB.
New York posed little threat to the Raiders defense and the Vegas offense bowled over one the worst run defenses in the land. There was a big swing in run rate in Game 1 under Pierce, with the Raiders handing off on 57.63% of snaps after going to the run just 38.79% of the time in the previous eight outings.
The Raiders run game will hit a much harder wall in the Jets defense on Sunday night. New York’s stop unit has kept this team competitive and sits 10th in EPA allowed per handoff on the season.
The Jets defense is going to sell out on stopping Josh Jacobs and force the offense to fall into the hands of O’Connell, who’s completing just under 65% of his passes for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt with one touchdown and two interceptions.
O’Connell has a very talented receiving corps – headlined by Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow – but isn’t pushing the ball downfield with an average of only 3.1 completed air yards per pass. The rookie also faces a stingy Jets secondary and a vaunted pass rush.
New York’s defense allows an average depth of target of just 6.7 yards and ranks 10th in EPA per dropback. The pass rush is generating a league-high 30.5% pressure rate, which has Gang Green among the leaders in hurries and QB hits along with 22 sacks on the season.
As for Las Vegas’ stop unit, defensive coordinator Patrick Graham employs a deep shell coverage which protects against deeper plays but does give up shorter shots with his zone coverage. We’ve seen teams pick apart the Raiders underneath for extended drives, which has led to a one-sided count in time of possession.
New York could work with that soft underbelly, with QB Zach Wilson unable to attack downfield. He averages just six yards per attempt and could dink-and-dunk his way down the field if the Raiders aren’t able to generate pressure on the passer (seventh lowest pressure rate).
Vegas will likely see a healthy dose of RB Breece Hall as well, with the dual-threat weapon doing damage on the ground and through the air. Las Vegas has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL as well as the 11th most receiving yards to RBs.
Sunday night’s Over/Under total opened as low as 35.5 points and has climbed to 37 before settling at 36.5 O/U as of Thursday afternoon. Covers Consensus shows 63% of picks coming in on the Under.
The Jets are 3-5 Over/Under on the season after their 27-6 loss to Los Angeles stayed below the closing number of 40.5 on Monday night. New York is 28th in points per play and has had to play faster with more passing in many outings, due to falling behind quickly. That may not be the case on Sunday night.
As for the Raiders, they bring a 2-7 O/U count into Week 10 which paints the picture of a pop-gun offense sitting 25th in points per play and a defense allowing foes to gradually move the chains on extended possessions.
Jets vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Las Vegas Raiders are 1-8 Over/Under versus their Team Total this season. Vegas’ TT for Week 10 is at 17.5 points. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Raiders.
Jets vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, November 12, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Raiders +2.5, 37 O/U |
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