High drama hits Steel City Sunday night as the retooled 2-4 New York Jets visit the 4-2 Pittsburgh Steelers under the lights of Sunday Night Football.
My Jets vs. Steelers predictions explain why you should take Over on Garrett Wilson's receptions total, regardless of who New York just traded for.
Here are my NFL picks for this soap opera matchup on October 20, and make sure to check out our favorite Jets vs. Steelers props!
Jets vs Steelers SNF prediction
My best bet
Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 receptions (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Thanks to the addition of Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson's reception total has fallen from 6.5 to 4.5 week-on-week. That's a massive decrease, considering we don't know the role Adams is going to play tomorrow night.
This is a receiver joining a newish offense mid-week, who hasn't played in a game since Week 3, and wasn't practicing until this week. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich told reporters on Friday Adams will have a full workload on Sunday, but even if he does, Wilson will not miss any snaps.
No player in football has been targeted more than Wilson this year with 66 targets, eight more than the next-highest receiver. In Wilson's first game under new offensive play-caller Todd Downing, he had 10 targets on 35 Aaron Rodgers dropbacks and caught eight for 107 yards.
He's gone over 100 yards in back-to-back games and should still see nine to 10 targets Sunday with Rodgers expected to throw the ball around 32 to 35 times. This is a guy getting 30% of his team's targets. Even a drop to 25% would have him at close to nine targets on 35 pass attempts.
This is a great spot for Wilson's Over 4.5 receptions at -115. The Jets will struggle to run vs. a great run defense and the No. 28 rushing offense in EPA/rush. Adams will get his, but let's not totally dismiss the highest-targeted receiver in football too much because of the new addition, which brings a ton of questions in terms of usage and readiness.
Davante Adams prop: Adams scores in Big Apple debut
My Davante Adams bet
Anytime touchdown (+160 at bet365)
My analysis
I don't love Davante Adams' volume props, but his BFF will eye down the WR in certain spots, and the red zone might make the most sense.
Adams had 73 TDs over his 116 games in Green Bay with Rodgers. This is also a New York offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in red-zone TD rate at 52% and has scored inside the 20 at a 33% rate over its last three games.
The Steelers' defense has allowed just two rushing TDs all season and is certainly more vulnerable in the passing game, where 80% of their TDs allowed have come.
If Adams is scaled back at all because of his lack of practice or understanding of the playbook, those lost snaps aren't coming near the goal line. At +160, Adams to score is a buy for me.
Jets vs Steelers SNF same-game parlay
Garrett Wilson 75+ receiving yards
Aaron Rodgers 2+ pass TDs
Najee Harris 50+ rushing yards
Even with another mouth to feed in the offense, Wilson will still see a lot of targets, especially in Adams' first game with the offense. It makes sense Adams' role is biggest near the goal line, but the addition of another real threat could create more efficiency and, therefore, more yards per target.
Rodgers has added a real RZ threat he trusts in Adams, and there's a chance the new weapon sees multiple targets inside the 20 because scoring rushing TDs vs. this Pittsburgh defense is not common.
Finally, Najee Harris is coming off his best game as a rusher this season with 106 yards on the ground, even with Jaylen Warren returning to the lineup. He's topped this number in four of six games, and the New York rush defense ranks 20th in EPA per rush and 27th in success rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jets vs Steelers odds
Jets vs Steelers live odds
Jets vs Steelers opening odds
- Spread: New York +1.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -105 | Pittsburgh -115
- Over/Under: Over 36 (-110) | Under 36 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Jets vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as slight home faves, but the market has since moved N.Y. to -1.
- The total opened at 36 and is at 38 as of Saturday afternoon.
Jets vs Steelers betting trend to know
The New York Jets have scored first in three of their last five games (+1.10 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Steelers.
Jets vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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