Jets vs Steelers Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Wilson's in Tough Against Pittsburgh's Defense

Quarterback Zach Wilson will make his season debut when the New York Jets visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. Both the Jets and Steelers come into this game with 1-2 records and without much hope of making the playoffs this year.

However, the Jets are looking to get a spark out of Wilson’s comeback. Will Wilson breathe life into New York’s season, or will the Steelers shut him and the Jets down?

We’ll break down what to expect out of Wilson’s return in our NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Steelers on October 2.

Jets vs Steelers best odds

Jets vs Steelers picks and predictions

Zach Wilson missed the first three games of the season after suffering a knee injury during the preseason. He’ll now be taking over quarterbacking duties from Joe Flacco, and will look to improve on an up-and-down rookie performance in 2021.

Wilson threw for nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season. To be fair, Wilson did improve over the course of the year, though the Jets also asked him to do less down the stretch. In his final five games, he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions, but he also never completed as many as 20 passes in any of those games.

Wilson will now jump into the fire without much in-game work. In the preseason, he threw just five passes before his injury, meaning Sunday’s game might serve as something of a warmup for the second-year signal caller as he works his way back into game shape.

Pittsburgh isn’t the ideal defense to get tuned up against. The Steelers have already recorded nine sacks and five interceptions against opposing defenses, while the Jets have given up nine sacks on their own.

This was a serious problem last year as well. Wilson was sacked 44 times in his rookie campaign, including eight times by the Bills in his last regular season game.

It would make a lot of sense for the Jets to ease Wilson back into the offense on Sunday, particularly against a Steelers' defense that can harass quarterbacks through both its pass rush and in coverage.

That could mean more reliance on the running game, as well as giving Wilson safe and easy reads to gain confidence in his first outing of the year. That’s why I’m betting on Wilson not to throw a touchdown pass against the Steelers.

While Wilson could definitely find the end zone once on Sunday, the +185 odds on this prop bet are way too good to pass up. We only need Pittsburgh to stop Wilson from throwing a touchdown 35% of the time to break even.

With the Steelers likely to give Wilson a hard time, the odds are well in our favor in this market.

My best bet: Wilson Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+185 at BetMGM)

Jets vs Steelers spread analysis

Pittsburgh opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped to a clean field goal at some books as of Friday. Neither of these teams has done much to impress in the early going. In Week 1, the Steelers managed to catch the Cincinnati Bengals in the midst of a slow start, beating them 23-20 in overtime. Since then, Pittsburgh has lost two straight, including a 29-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns last Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a 27-12 loss to the Bengals. A week earlier, New York earned its only win of the year by beating Cleveland 31-30 after scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes. Given the odd circumstances of the Jets' win over the Browns and the fact that the Bengals are playing much better now than they did against Pittsburgh, it’s hard to compare these results.

However, there are some matchup problems that could give the Steelers the advantage on Sunday. Pittsburgh is taking full advantage of its extra time off to ensure its secondary is ready for Wilson’s debut.

Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick appears ready to play after suffering a concussion against the Browns last week. Fitzpatrick has already picked off two passes this year and will be a key part of the Steelers' defense as it tries to take advantage of Wilson’s lack of playing time this season.

The Jets could be without cornerback Brandin Echols, who is working through a hamstring injury. Echols has been a limited participant in practice this week, and his absence would benefit a Steelers' passing attack that has averaged just 182.7 yards per game so far this year.

Jets vs Steelers Over/Under analysis

The total opened at a fairly low number of 42.0 and has dropped down to 41.5 since then. The Steelers have struggled to move the ball and sustain drives. Pittsburgh’s average of 272.7 yards per game is 31st in the NFL, better than only the Chicago Bears.

Meanwhile, the Jets are holding opponents to 336.3 yards per game, good for 15th in the league. However, the Jets are allowed 27 points per game. That’s in part due to some short fields off of the seven turnovers committed by the New York offense this year. The Steelers have taken advantage of those kinds of mistakes so far this year, with their defense forcing six takeaways over their first three games.

The Jets have averaged 286 yards per game in the air, while Pittsburgh is allowing 252 passing yards a contest. Keep in mind that those New York numbers came with Flacco under center, and the Jets will likely move to a safer offensive scheme for Wilson’s first game of the season.

Both teams have shaky areas defensively as well as questions to answer offensively.  I’m inclined to take the Over, though I’m personally not betting the total on this game.

Jets vs Steelers betting trend to know

Zach Wilson failed to throw a touchdown in seven of his 13 starts last season. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Steelers.

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