The Denver Broncos will visit the Cincinnati Bengals in a game with major postseason implications this Saturday afternoon.
Quarterback Joe Burrow is singlehandedly keeping the Bengals in this playoff race and will need to have another big game against a stiff Broncos defense should they plan on extending their season.
Let’s take a look at the Joe Burrow odds and props available to us for this game in my top NFL picks for Saturday, December 28.
Joe Burrow player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
(+145 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Over 0.5 interceptions
Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown
(+625 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Joe Burrow prop pick
My best bet
Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+145 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If the Cincinnati Bengals were playing better this year, Joe Burrow might be getting more consideration as an MVP candidate. He's thrown for a league-leading 39 touchdowns and 4,229 yards while taking care of the ball, giving up just eight interceptions.
If anything, he's only improved his play down the stretch. Over his last seven games, Burrow has thrown for 24 touchdowns, tossing at least three scores in each of those games.
Those games haven’t all been wins, but that’s only been due to the opposition managing to shred this Cincinnati defense. In one prime example, Burrow threw for four touchdowns and 428 yards on the road only to lose 35-34 to the Ravens.
Whether or not the Denver Broncos can beat Cincinnati in a shootout doesn’t really matter much to us in terms of these NFL player props. However, we need to consider the fact the Broncos have been one of the better units against the pass this year, allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt through the air this season.
That’s enough for me not to make a Burrow yardage prop my best bet, but even when the Bengals franchise quarterback hasn’t put up prodigious amounts of yards this season, he’s still found the endzone. Burrow has come in Under 275 yards in each of his last two games but has still thrown for three touchdowns each time.
The way Burrow and his receiving corps are playing right now, I’m not sure anyone can keep him from finding the endzone multiple times. And getting a plus-money number on a prop he's cashed seven times in a row is just too good for me to pass up.
Joe Burrow same-game parlay
Joe Burrow Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Joe Burrow Over 0.5 interceptions
Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown
Burrow’s usage has been growing as the year goes on, and that’s made it easy to cash in on his prop bets in recent weeks, but the news isn’t entirely positive, as the increased number of throws in pressure situations has also meant he’s been turning the ball over more.
While Burrow might only have eight picks all year, four of them have come in the last four games. The Broncos also average an interception per game on defense, and their effective pass rush will force Burrow into some tough throws. That’s enough for me to add a bet on Burrow to throw an interception.
Still, I’m looking for Burrow to have a big day overall, and that means someone in the Bengals passing game will have to find success as well. I’m going with the most obvious choice by picking Ja’Marr Chase, who leads the NFL with 108 receptions and 1,510 yards receiving this year.
Just like with Burrow, I have more confidence in Chase when it comes to scoring as opposed to yardage. While Chase has only popped for over 100 yards receiving in one of his last five games, he's found the end zone in five of his past six.
There’s no sign that Burrow is targeting Chase less or that opponents are having any success in slowing him down. Chase leads the NFL with 16 touchdowns scored, and I’m taking him to add to that total on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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