Joe Burrow Odds and SNF Props: Too Cool for School

In a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round, the Cincinnati Bengals go toe-to-toe with the Buffalo Bills in a game with major playoff implications.

The NFL odds give the edge to the Bengals as a 2-point favorite now that Joe Burrow appears to be his healthy old self.

In last season’s playoff battle of the AFC's upper echelon, Cincinnati came out on top 27-10 on the road, but the way things currently sit, the Bengals wouldn't even be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

However, with Burrow surging, the Bengals are playing themselves back into contention and he’ll need a big performance on Sunday night.

You can see how I’m betting the Joe Burrow odds as we dive into the SNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more SNF coverage, check our Bills vs. Bengals picks and the best SNF prop picks.

Joe Burrow SNF prop picks

• Over 263.5 passing yards
• Over 263.5 passing yards/Over 1.5 passing TDs/Chase Over 85.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Joe Burrow SNF prop pick

Over 263.5 passing yards (-110)

After a horrendous opening game of the season in less-than-ideal conditions and a calf injury plaguing him in the weeks that followed, Burrow is starting to look like the Pro Bowl passer who deserved that five-year, $275-million extension he signed this offseason.

Taking on a Buffalo Bills team with issues throughout its secondary, the former No. 1 overall pick should be ready to build on last week’s dominant performance against the 49ers and drop dimes all over the field.

From Week 1 to 4, Burrow was as bad as it gets, sitting 27th in EPA + CPOE composite, which was last among all qualifying quarterbacks. He was 23rd in EPA per play, 24th in success rate, 26th in air yards, and 27th in CPOE over that span. There wasn't a quarterback playing worse football.

Luckily for the Cincinnati hopeful, Burrow’s calf no longer seems to be an issue and his play in recent weeks has helped him leap back up to 18th in EPA + CPOE composite and 14th in success rate. 

Of quarterbacks who have played at least 135 plays since Week 5, Burrow is fourth in EPA + CPOE composite in that time behind only Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. He also sits first in success rate, first in CPOE, and seventh in EPA per play.

He’s playing like the quarterback who led the cursed Bengals to the Super Bowl and has thrown for 785 yards with eight touchdowns while completing 78% of his passes over his last three games.

In his three games since Week 5, Burrow has twice thrown for over 263.5 yards and is coming off a vintage performance with 283 yards and three scores in the win over San Francisco. He’s now in a perfect position to stack another great game with the Bills coming to town.

While Buffalo may be 5-3 and playing defense that’s landed them in the top half of the league in most metrics, there’s a glaring hole in their secondary. Between the injury to Tre'Davious White and last year’s first-round pick Kaiir Elam essentially being labeled a bust already, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas at the deadline.

The situation is so dire in the secondary for Sean McDermott’s team that the former Green Bay corner walks into Buffalo as their top cover man and is expected to start against the Bengals after being with the team for less than a week. 

While Douglas has played some impressive football for the Packers the last three seasons, he’s never been the top cover corner for the team and now must deal with Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. He's struggled at times this season, giving up a 109 rating when targeted and allowing four touchdowns in his last five games.

He won’t be the only player to pick on for Burrow and Co. either, the Bills' other starting corner, Christian Benford, has been up and down and was limited in practice this week. The second-year sixth-round pick has allowed a 105 rating when targeted and nickel Taron Johnson has been toasted the last two games, allowing three touchdowns.

Even Bills All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer knows that Buffalo is going to need a big day to slow Burrow now that he’s found his stuff again.

“He's an extremely smart quarterback who's seen all the looks, he knows where to go with the football, he can make all the throws, he's got good playmakers around him that understand that offense as well,” Poyer said. “We're going to have to play extremely well to win and find ways to take the football away.”

Prop: Over 263.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Joe Burrow SNF same-game parlay

Joe Burrow Over 263.5 passing yards (-110)

Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing TDs (-165)

Ja'Marr Chase Over 85.5 receiving yards (-110)

+240 at bet365

With eight touchdowns in his last three games, Burrow has topped 1.5 passing touchdowns in each game and has gone Over that line four times in his last six despite dealing with the calf injury.

For his career, the National Championship-winning passer has averaged 1.8 passing touchdowns per game in 49 starts. He’s thrown at least two in 30 of those starts (61%). 

Just like at LSU, Burrow’s at his best when he’s on the same page with Ja’Marr Chase, and the two former Tigers have been making magic in recent weeks.

Burrow’s bounceback play has coincided with him throwing to Chase more than ever. Chase’s 85 targets in seven games put him on pace for over 200 targets after having less than 135 in each of the last two seasons.

It seems to be working though. Chase is seventh in the NFL in receiving yards and has been torching cornerbacks since Week 5. In his last three games, the former first-round pick has 372 receiving yards and four TDs on 31 receptions.

This season, he’s averaging 93.7 per game and has gone Over 85.5 receiving yards in three of his last five outings. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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