Joe Burrow MNF Spotlight: No Chase, No Problem for Burrow vs Browns

Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season wraps up on Halloween with a Monday Night Football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium.

The Browns should be scared of quarterback Joe Burrow coming into this holiday showdown, as he appears to be rounding into the form that brought his team to a Super Bowl last year. Like a kid with candy after a trick-or-treating haul, I’ve separated my favorite NFL player props wagers from the rest, only I’m willing to share. Here are my favorite Joe Burrow props for Monday, October 31. 

Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's Browns vs. Bengals betting preview as well as Josh Inglis' player prop picks for Monday Night Football.

Joe Burrow MNF prop picks

• Over 1.5 passing TDs (-152)
• Over 23.5 completions (-115)
• Longest completion Over 38.5 yds (-115)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Joe Burrow MNF props

Burrow piles up pass TDs

Passing touchdown props tend to be among the most heavily juiced, depending on who’s under center. Betting sites have a fair line on Burrow of 1.5 passing scores with a tolerable vig on the Over, so I’ll take it.

Burrow has 15 touchdown passes in 2022, tied for third in the NFL. More importantly to bettors, he’s hit the two-touchdown plateau in five of seven games.

The LSU product will be without Tiger alum Ja’Marr Chase (hip), who’s caught twice as many touchdowns (six) as second place on his team. But Burrow has completed at least one touchdown pass to five additional receivers in 2022, with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst each providing multiple scores.

This prop is very hittable and should be included in any same-game parlay.

Prop: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-148)

Bengals stick to their strengths on offense

We’re not going to suggest that the Bengals are better off on offense without Chase, but it does offer the possibility of an edge for prop bettors looking at Burrow’s pass completions line.

Burrow has been an incredibly efficient passer in 2022, completing 68.9% of his throws, good for third in the NFL behind only Geno Smith (73.5%) and Matt Stafford (71.1%). But if you take out his successful and unsuccessful targets of Chase, that number jumps to 72.5%. 

Perhaps Burrow is trying to force the ball to Chase because anything can happen once the reigning Rookie of the Year has it in his hands. With Chase sidelined, Burrow could play things more conservatively and settle for easier completions. 

This line of 23.5 completions looks generous when compared to his season average of 26.5, but it’s worth noting he’s only exceeded the line on three occasions. However, his completion average in three career starts against the Browns is a robust 33.3.

Prop: Over 23.5 completions (+108)

Burrow hits a bomb

Chase is Burrow’s most obvious downfield target, but Higgins and Boyd are just as capable of breaking off a big play or two, especially against Cleveland.

Boyd is tied with Chase for the team lead in receptions of 20 or more yards at eight, with Higgins close behind at six. Boyd and Chase each have a 60-yarder to their credit in 2022, and Higgins’ season-long is 59. 

Going into Week 8, the Browns are the worst team in the league by opponent average yards per catch (12.5), indicating Cleveland can be beaten over the top. The Browns are also tied for the 10th-most missed tackles in the league this year, so even a short route could turn into a big gainer. 

Burrow doesn’t always have the luxury of dropping back without pressure in his face, but the Browns’ poor quarterback knockdown rate (5.8%, 28th in the NFL) suggests he’ll be allowed the extra time to let his receivers race downfield too.

Prop: Longest completion Over 38.5 (-115)

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