Joe Mixon Odds and Props for Week 16: Mixon It Up Through the Air

The Cincinnati Bengals playoff hopes are alive and well after a three-game winning streak, despite losing Joe Burrow for the season. Now they get another Saturday matchup this time on the road against the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. 

The Bengals are slight favorites in the Week 16 NFL odds and will be looking to win the battle of AFC North rivals still battling for a playoff spot behind the play of Joe Mixon. 

We take a closer look at the Joe Mixon odds and give our best free NFL picks for Bengals vs. Steelers on December 23. 

Make sure also to check out our Bengals vs. Steelers predictions and player prop picks!

Joe Mixon Week 16 prop picks

• Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
• Over 18.5 receiving yards + Trenton Irwin Under 1.5 receptions + Bengals -2.5 (+475 at bet365)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Joe Mixon Week 16 prop pick

Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110)

After allowing less than 100 yards rushing in three of their past four games, the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense allowed a whopping 170 rushing yards to the Indianapolis Colts, who were down to their third and fourth-string running backs. The Steelers' defense has been very hot and cold this season, as it ranks ninth in the NFL in points allowed, but 20th in total yards allowed. It also ranks 23rd in rushing attempts and 22nd in rushing yards allowed.

When these two teams met on November 26, it was the first game without Joe Burrow for the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Mixon was held to 16 yards on eight carries and two catches for 44 yards. However, since that game, Mixon has averaged 64.7 rushing yards per game and 36.3 receiving yards per game.  

While Mixon was shut down in the rushing game last week against the Minnesota Vikings, it was more due to a lack of volume than lack of production. It is more likely he will see more volume this week, especially in the passing game without Ja’Marr Chase. Even though he only had two catches last game against the Steelers, one went for 39 yards. 

Mixon is averaging a whopping 7.6 yards per reception this season and 24.4 receiving yards per game. He has eight games this season with at least one catch for double-digit yards and eight with at least 20 receiving yards. There are two great options here for us to pick from in terms of the best prop. 

The Steelers have allowed big plays in the passing game to backs out of the backfield this year. They have allowed 13 different backs to have at least one catch of more than 10 yards out of the backfield in 14 games this season. Last week, Zack Moss had a 16-yard reception that went for a touchdown on the play he was injured. He also had 20 yards receiving at that time and the Steelers allowed 10 more receiving yards to the backups afterward. 

I feel comfortable with both Mixon’s longest reception Over 9.5 yards and his total receiving yards to go Over 18.5 yards. However, we are just going to lean on his total receiving yardage in this one. Last week was the only game since Jake Browning took over that he would not have hit this number. 

Prop: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Joe Mixon Week 16 same-game parlay

Joe Mixon Over 18.5 receiving yards

Trenton Irwin Under 1.5 receptions

Bengals -2.5

+475 at bet365

There are a couple of plays I like in this game to combine with our best bet for a nice parlay.

While I like Mixon to step up in the passing game in Chase’s absence, I do not like Trenton Irwin to step up in that same position. Irwin may see some of Joey Porter Jr. on the outside and the likes of Andre Iosivas and Charlie Jones will likely split time with Irwin. I like his Under on receptions. 

Finally, we can finish off this parlay with the Bengals to cover the spread. This is a huge game for both teams, but the Steelers are reeling and have switched things up to Mason Rudolph under center. While things were bad under Mitch Trubisky, there had to be a reason he was starting over Rudolph. This feels like the Jets situation, where things are always brighter with the backup to the backup.  

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