Two familiar playoff foes vie for a spot in Super Bowl 59 when the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Buffalo Bills tonight.
The game features a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and we’ve identified the best betting prop in our spotlight on Josh Allen odds.
Find out more in my NFL picks for the AFC Championship game on Sunday, January 26.
Josh Allen player prop picks
- Best bet
Allen anytime touchdown
(-110 at BetMGM) - SGP pick
Allen anytime touchdown
Allen Over 47.5 rushing yards
Kincaid Over 31.5 receiving yards
(+425 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Josh Allen prop pick
My best bet
Pick (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’m expecting both offenses to put up points in this contest, and Josh Allen is going to need to make some plays with his legs for the Buffalo Bills to keep up. That’s something he’s been doing plenty of this season.
Allen scored a pair of one-yard touchdown runs last week against the Ravens and is Buffalo’s most dangerous weapon near the goal line. At 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, he’s a load to take down.
And the Kansas City Chiefs know this.
After all, he rushed for 55 yards on 12 carries in their game in November. That included a 26-yard touchdown with just over two minutes remaining to ice the game and a scramble on fourth down that saw him slice through the defense and run through two tackle attempts.
The Bills quarterback has rushed for a touchdown in seven of his last nine starts and has found the end zone with his legs in four of his last five playoff appearances. That includes two touchdown runs in last year’s AFC Divisional Round defeat against these very Chiefs. He also rushed for a score in their regular season meeting last year.
Buffalo’s dual-threat pivot also tends to look for plays with his legs in the playoffs more than in the regular season. Going back to the start of last year’s postseason, he’s averaging 9.5 rushing attempts per game — compared to just 6.45 attempts over the two regular seasons.
The Bills don’t have the most explosive weapons in the passing game, meaning Allen’s going to have to do even more with his legs in this one. It’s also going to be brutally cold, which I expect will lead to more emphasis on the ground game.
With the added volume and his penchant for rushing for touchdowns in the playoffs, I love getting this prop at close to even money.
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Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Josh Allen Over 47.5 rushing yards
Dalton Kincaid Over 31.5 receiving yards
In his last six games against Kansas City, Allen has notched 10 or more carries. Additionally, in his three playoff battles with the Chiefs, he’s averaged 76 rushing yards. I’ll back the Buffalo superstar to once again top the 50-yard mark.
Dalton Kincaid missed the earlier meeting with the Chiefs due to injury, but he caught five passes in his two games against them last season. This time he will be going against a Kansas City defense that has allowed 40+ receiving yards to opposing tight ends in 15 of their last 16 games.
One of those games was the first meeting, where Dawson Knox had four catches for 40 yards in Kincaid’s stead. While the Ravens kept him quiet last week, he went for 47 yards on three catches against the Broncos and should eclipse those totals on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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