Josh Allen Odds and SNF Props: Star QB is Overshadowed by the Run Game on Prime-Time

The Buffalo Bills are back from across the pond following a disappointing loss to Jacksonville. Now they get a primetime matchup in the SNF odds when they face off against the struggling New York Giants. 

The Bills are massive favorites in the Week 6 odds and set up nicely for a big Josh Allen performance. He will be looking for a big bounce-back game to get himself back into the MVP conversation and for his team to remain Super Bowl contenders.

We take a closer look at the Josh Allen odds and give our best free NFL picks for Giants vs. Bills on October 15. 

Also, be sure to check out our full Giants vs. Bills predictions and SNF prop picks!

Josh Allen SNF prop picks

• Under 34.5 passing attempts
• Under 34.5 pass attempts + Bills -14.5 + Cook Over 64.5 rushing yards + Cook anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Josh Allen SNF prop pick

Under 34.5 pass attempts (-114)

There is one major factor to consider when looking at Josh Allen’s props for this game, and that is how close this game will be. The New York Giants will not have Daniel Jones and several offensive linemen available, and star running back Saquon Barkley is also doubtful to play.

This game will likely be a blowout pretty early on for the Buffalo Bills. 

Looking at some of the Giants other games this season, Dak Prescott only had 143 yards passing with no touchdowns in a Week 1 40-0 blowout. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy had 310 yards passing and two TDs in a Week 3 30-12 domination, while Geno Smith and Drew Lock combined for 173 yards passing and a TD in a Week 4 24-3 shellacking. 

Last week, New York's game against Miami was close for much of three quarters before becoming a blowout late, and Tua Tagovailoa did next to nothing in the final five drives. This does not bode well for expectations of huge numbers for Allen in this matchup, as we may ultimately see the Bills become more run-dependent.

Considering Allen is still a threat to make big plays early in this game with weapons like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, we will lean on looking at his number of passing attempts for our spotlight picks.

In the three games where the Bills have won big this season, Allen had 37 attempts against the Raiders, 32 attempts against the Commanders, and 25 attempts against the Dolphins. The Giants are only allowing 29.8 pass attempts per game and only Purdy had more than 31 attempts against them (37). 

In Allen’s 29 career games where the final margin of victory was more than 14 points, he has only averaged 31.5 pass attempts. We can get this number at 34.5 and I think there is an excellent chance that the Bills star quarterback may not even eclipse 30. 

Prop: Under 34.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)

Josh Allen SNF same-game parlay

Josh Allen Under 34.5 passing attempts
Bills -14.5
James Cook Over 65.5 rushing yards

James Cook anytime touchdown

+600 at PointsBet

There are a few other plays I like in this game to combine with our best bet for a nice SGP.

We will start with the Bills against the spread. Even at full strength, the Giants would struggle with this Bills squad, but all the injuries that have racked up for New York make this one a complete mismatch. 

Meanwhile, fewer passing opportunities for Allen means more reps in the running game for the likes of James Cook. Every single leading rusher that's faced the Giants games this season has totaled 70+ yards on the ground, and I like Cook to do the same on Sunday night. 

Finally, we will add a Cook anytime touchdown score. The Giants have allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season, which ranks 31st in the league. There has also not been a single Giants game this season in which an opposing running back did not score a touchdown, so I like Cook to continue this streak. 

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