Josh Allen Odds and Wild Card Props: Allen's Legs Continue to Shred Defenses

Josh Allen odds will be among the most popular bets on Monday afternoon, as the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL Wild Card Round following a one-day delay due to dangerous weather conditions.

The Bills come in as heavy favorites in the Wild Card odds over the Steelers, and quarterback play will play a major factor in the game. Allen may make more mistakes than fans like to see, but he’s also prolific with his arm and his legs, which have given the Bills reasonable NFL odds to win the Super Bowl this season. 

Keep reading to learn which NFL picks I like best on Monday in my spotlight on Josh Allen odds.

If you want to find other ways to bet on the game, read our Steelers vs. Bills picks and predictions along with Covers’ Steelers vs. Bills prop picks for this Wild Card matchup.

Josh Allen Wild Card prop picks

• Anytime touchdown
• Allen anytime TD/Over 38.5 rush yds/Bills -10

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Josh Allen Wild Card prop pick

Anytime TD (-105)

As much as Josh Allen can infuriate fans, bettors, and his own coaching staff with his propensity for turnovers — he threw 18 interceptions during the regular season — there’s no denying that he puts up big numbers across the board as well. Like all quarterbacks, most of his damage is done through the air, but Allen has also been one of the most effective running QBs in the league this year.

While he doesn’t pop off many explosive plays with his legs, Allen compiled 524 rushing yards during the regular season. More importantly, he found the end zone 15 times, tied with Jalen Hurts for the most in the league among quarterbacks. 

Allen scored touchdowns on the ground all year long, but it was late in the season when he used his mobility to help the Buffalo Bills make their playoff push. Allen scored eight rushing touchdowns in his last six games, scoring in five of those contests. That included scores against three playoff-bound opponents.

If Buffalo had somehow been able to play its game on Sunday during the blizzard, Allen would have been a no-brainer pick as one of the most likely players to find the end zone — if anyone could even have seen the field. But while the snow will clear out on Monday, conditions will still be far from ideal, with frigid temperatures expected for the game.

Even if that wasn’t the case, getting nearly even money on Allen to score a touchdown would feel like an amazing value after a season where he found the end zone in 12 of 17 games. With the aerial game potentially limited, Allen’s propensity to extend plays makes him an even more likely bet to find the end zone on Monday.

Prop: Josh Allen anytime touchdown (-105 at BetMGM) 50% boost available

Josh Allen Wild Card same-game parlay

Josh Allen anytime TD

Josh Allen Over 38.5 rushing yards

Bills -10

+316 at FanDuel

The Pittsburgh Steelers weren’t great against the run this year, allowing 4.3 yards per rush, slightly worse than the league average. That, combined with the conditions and how Allen has been playing down the stretch, has me confident in predicting that the Bills quarterback will run for a score on Monday.

I also like Allen to hit his rushing yardage prop of 38.5 yards. Admittedly, these two picks are highly correlated, as the more he runs, the more likely it is for Allen to find paydirt. However, Allen has also been running for more yardage late in the regular season. Over his last six games, he’s averaged 43.8 yards per game on the ground and surpassed that average in each of his last two outings. 

If Allen is as prolific as I expect, that will spell trouble for a Pittsburgh team that has generally had trouble scoring points this year. The Steelers are averaging just 17.9 points on the season, and are now facing off against a Bills team that allows just 18.3 points per game. The situation didn’t get much better for Pittsburgh down the stretch, as they hit 20 points only twice in their last eight regular season games.

Despite some earlier struggles, Buffalo finished the year as a top-tier team on both sides of the ball. The Bills average 5.8 yards per play and 26.5 points per game, ranking among the top six in the NFL in both categories. That — combined with its consistently excellent defense — is going to make Buffalo a tough out this postseason.

It should also make the Bills way too much for the Steelers to handle. Pittsburgh has been a great story this year, especially as they’ve overcome some disappointing quarterback play to get back into the postseason for the third time in four years. But those last two appearances ended in first-round exits by double digits, and that will be the case in Buffalo on Monday as well. I’m taking the Bills and laying the 10-point spread.

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