Lamar Jackson Next Team Odds: Former MVP’s Future Up in the Air Following Trade Request

The Baltimore Ravens have a long-term problem that requires a solution: A second contract for Lamar Jackson.

The 2019 NFL MVP sent the sports world into a fenzy on Monday, announcing via Twitter that he has requested a trade from the Ravens. 

Lamar Jackson has requested a trade. https://t.co/O41RchNDbj

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 27, 2023

Despite the announcement, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh remained confident that Lamar would remain in Baltimore. 

“I’m getting ready for Lamar. … When Lamar gets back on this train, it’s moving full speed.”#Ravens coach John Harbaugh, on his QB requesting a trade.

“We love him.”

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 27, 2023

Jackson concluded his rookie deal last season and has long been awaiting a lucrative extension that hasn't come. With the franchise tag at its disposal, Baltimore is still the favorite to enjoy Jackson's talents in '23 and beyond, but NFL odds wait for no one.

We've got the odds for Lamar Jackson's next team — if not the Ravens — and a few highlighted suitors, below. 

Lamar Jackson next team odds

Team (if not the Ravens)	Odds
Indianapolis Colts	+250
Atlanta Falcons	+300
New England Patriots	+400
Washington Commanders	+600
Miami Dolphins	+850
Detroit Lions	+900
Minnesota Vikings	+1,000
San Francisco 49ers	+1,500
Tennessee Titans	+1,600
New York Jets	+2,500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+3,500
Seattle Seahawks	+4,000
Las Vegas Raiders	+5,000
Green Bay Packers	+5,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 28, 2023.

Lamar Jackson's contract situation at a glance

Before we dive into some of the favorites to land Lamar Jackson's services, we should discuss how we got here. It's incredibly rare for any starting-caliber quarterback to become available, never mind one with the accolades and ability of Jackson. Yet, we are heading down that path and the current standstill can be attributed to two factors: 

The franchise tag

The tag is the biggest weapon the Ravens have right now and the reason that Baltimore isn't in an outright panic, as it theoretically affords them two more years of team control. It is also, however, a sizable roadblock to any starting point in negotiations between the Ravens and Jackson, who doesn't have an agent.

Should Baltimore tag Jackson, it would be with the exclusive tag, which is a greater number than the typical tag (which is the average of the Top 5 QB salaries). That tag would come in at around $45 million for 2023 — a fine cap hit for a QB — but would then balloon to roughly $54 million in '24, with a consecutive tag 120% of the previous year's. 

So, any contract presented to Jackson would have to have a starting point of $100 million fully guaranteed in the first two seasons. Otherwise, there's little incentive for the QB to sign long-term instead of playing on back-to-back tags and then hitting the market, as Kirk Cousins did on his way out of Washington.

In a vacuum, $100 million over two years for a franchise quarterback is negligible. For a Ravens team trying to contend, swallowing that cost — and an APY of $50 million over the remainder of the contract — could prove too much. 

Deshaun Watson's contract

The contract 31 owners have spent months stewing over is of particular issue in Baltimore. In giving Deshaun Watson a $230 million fully guaranteed contract, the Browns didn't just outbid the rest of the league but risked a new precedent in the form of fully guaranteed deals for quarterbacks. 

It's already bitten the Ravens once, with Jackson reportedly turning down their preseason offer of $250 million, with $133M guaranteed, over five years before negotiations ended. That refusal was down to wanting a fully guaranteed deal, as Watson received. And why shouldn't he?

Jackson is Watson's peer, from an NFL sense, and has accomplished more with an MVP to his name. After several teams lined up to morally bankrupt themselves en route to landing Watson last summer, there should be no doubt that Jackson would receive a similar deal if he hit the open market.

Favorites to sign Lamar Jackson

Indianapolis Colts (+250)

It's easy to imagine Jackson reinvigorating the Horseshoe, bringing a swagger back to the Colts' quarterback position not seen since the days of Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. 

The question is — would the Colts be willing to mortgage the future for Lamar? While Indy has the No. 4 overall pick at their disposal, it would take much more to acquire the former league MVP. 

With a QB-laden draft featuring the likes of CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson, the Colts may benefit from staying put and selecting their franchise quarterback on April 27.

Atlanta Falcons (+300)

One of the runners-up in the Watson sweepstakes last year, Atlanta would surely get back on the QB trail in pursuit of Jackson should the opportunity arise. Marcus Mariota's one-year stint was cut short, while rookie Desmond Ridder certainly didn't show enough to prohibit the Dirty Birds from upgrading.

Jackson would no doubt see the appeal in an offense already featuring Kyle Pitts and Drake London with plenty of flexibility. Not for nothing, Falcons owner Arthur Blank has incredibly deep pockets and has never hesitated from acting aggressively and spending. 

New England Patriots (+400)

The Patriots have struggled to find a consistent answer at quarterback ever since Tom Brady left Foxborough. Acquiring Lamar would not only solve these issues but make New England a formidable Super Bowl contender coming out of the AFC.

To do so, Bill Belichick will need to come to terms with the fact that Mac Jones is not the answer long-term. The former first-round pick impressed in his rookie year, but took a major step backward in 2022, finishing with a passer rating of 84.8.

According to rapper Meek Mill, Lamar preferred to join the Pats.

#Patriots owner Robert Kraft was told that Lamar Jackson wanted to sign with the #Patriots, by rapper Meek Mill.

Kraft answered him that would be Bill Belichick’s decision (@AlbertBreer) pic.twitter.com/oZM2gzRRsz

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) March 27, 2023

Pages related to this topic