The AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens packs more star power — on and off the field — into 60 minutes than any other football game so far this season.
Despite the likelihood of Taylor Swift making an appearance at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, top billing in the AFC title game goes to the battle at quarterback: Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson.
Jackson, the soon-to-be two-time MVP, can secure his place among the all-time greats by not only taking the Ravens to the Super Bowl but outperforming his Kansas City counterpart — another two-time MVP and reigning Super Bowl Most Valuable Player.
I look into the NFL odds for Baltimore’s dual-threat QB and give my best NFL prop picks and predictions for Lamar Jackson odds and his performance.
For more free NFL picks, be sure to check out our AFC Championship best bets.
Lamar Jackson AFC Championship prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Lamar Jackson AFC Championship prop pick
Longest run Over 16.5 yards (-130)
Jackson has made leaps and bounds as a passer in his first season with Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
He’s posted huge numbers through the air in the biggest games on the Ravens’ schedule, and his improvements throwing against the blitz — something he’ll face a lot on Sunday — are notable.
But when push comes to shove, Lamar’s greatest weapons are his legs. He’s always a threat to bolt on a QB keeper and — more importantly — can make something out of nothing when designated passing plays break down.
Jackson hung 100 rushing yards on the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, with the Texans turning up the intensity with a blitz-heavy scheme. That effort included a 23-yard back-breaking run as his longest sprint of the day.
AFC Championship odds have Jackson’s prop for longest run Over/Under bouncing between 16.5 and 17.5 yards — a mark he’s eclipsed in each of his last four games.
More so, when matched up against top-tier pass rushes such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Lamar has burned high-pressure/high sack teams — Pittsburgh (26 yards), Jacksonville (21), Miami (18), Seattle (23), and San Francisco (30) — for his longest runs of the year.
Kansas City’s defense boasts one of the highest blitz rates in the league, which helped the Chiefs generate the second-highest pressure rate on rival passers and collect 57 sacks on the season — second only to Baltimore’s defense (60).
Monken will also combat the blitz with designed runs for Jackson, which we saw vs. the Texans last weekend, and when teams throw six or more bodies in the box at the Ravens, that’s when he’s at his most explosive as a runner.
According to Doug Farrar of USA Today, in non-goal-to-go situations (outside the 10-yard line) with six defenders in the box, Jackson has rumbled for 780 yards on 129 carries (average of 6.04 yards per run) with 42% of those total yards coming after contact.
The Chiefs have recently faced a series on mobile quarterbacks, giving up rushing longs of 18 yards to Josh Allen in the Divisional Round, 14 yards to Tua Tagovailoa in the Wild Card, and 15 yards to speedy L.A. Chargers backup Easton Stick in a Week 18 walk-through.
Kansas City was able to check Allen (who rumbled for 72 rushing yards last week) to a long of only eight yards when the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills battled at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 8 and limited Philadelphia Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts to a rushing max of 10 yards in Week 11.
Other quick-footed quarterbacks like Zach Wilson (long of 14 yards), Trevor Lawrence (17), and Justin Fields (18) have broken off bigger runs against the KC defense. As dangerous as those mobile QBs are, they’re not on the same level as Lamar in terms of smarts, speed, and physicality.
The Chiefs defense could also be missing or playing with injured starters at key positions needed to slow down, spy, and help tackle Jackson. Coming out of mid-week practices, DT Derrick Nnadi and FS Mike Edwards were DNPs, while LB Willie Gay was limited and is questionable for Sunday.
In a game packed with stars, Jackson could be the brightest. And he’s shown that he can — and will — make big plays in big games. This is the biggest of his career.
Prop: Longest run Over 16.5 yards (-130 at BetRivers)
Lamar Jackson AFC Championship same-game parlay
50+ rushing yards
Over 1.5 passing TDs
Anytime TD
Since books aren’t including the longest run market in the SGP menu, we’ll look to the milestone market for rushing yards. With that predicted big run in tow, Jackson should be able to scramble for 50 or more yards — especially with player projections calling to 50 or more on the ground.
One of my favorite bets of the AFC Championship is Lamar to pass for two or more touchdowns. He’s thrown 13 over his last five games, totaled 17 passing touchdowns in the seven games versus playoff-qualifying teams this season, and has top-target TE Mark Andrews back.
We saw Allen scoot for two rushing touchdowns against Kansas City last week, matching Lamar’s two rushing TDs versus Houston. Whether it’s on the goal line or sprinting for the end zone, Jackson is always a threat to find paydirt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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