If any NFL team understands “luck” it should be the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Silver and Black are coming off a 6-11 season with nine of those defeats occurring in one-score games (4-9 straight up in games decided by eight points or less). In 2021, the Raiders’ fortunes were flipped with a 7-2 SU mark in those tight contests and squeaked into the postseason with an insane Week 18 finale.
So, what kind of season awaits the Sin City slot machine in 2023?
If the NFL odds hold any truth, it ain’t all cherries.
Las Vegas’ season win total is 6.5 with the Under shaded heavily. NFL futures and look-ahead lines have the Raiders set as favorites in just one game with five other contests pegged as pick’ems. And then there’s life in the AFC West, further hampering their Super Bowl odds.
That doesn’t mean Vegas can’t be a weekly winner for spreads and totals, as there are plenty of offensive weapons showcased in the Silver State. We roll the dice with my 2023 Las Vegas Raiders NFL betting preview.
Las Vegas Raiders futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +8,000 | +7,500 | +4,500 |
| Win conference | +4,000 | +5,500 | +2,800 |
| Win division | +1,200 | +1,700 | +1,500 |
| Make playoffs | +380 | +390 | +400 |
| O6.5 wins | +110 | +108 | +110 |
| U6.5 wins | -130 | -138 | -130 |
Best futures bet: Fourth in AFC West (-150 at DraftKings)
This one doesn’t need much explaining. The Chiefs and Chargers will fight for the division crown and the Broncos have to be better than last season with Sean Payton patrolling the sidelines. That leaves the Raiders bringing up the rear.
As mentioned, the look-ahead lines have Las Vegas as a point-spread favorite in only one game but have five other spreads on the fence (PK). Even if the Raiders pull three victories out of those too-close-to-call contests, they’re still well behind Denver (8.5 wins) in the division pecking order.
To make matters worse, Vegas’ offensive opposition is pretty scary, considering the defense is a weak spot. Outside of regular run-ins with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, the Silver and Black take on some potent scoring attacks with Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, the Jets, Miami, and Minnesota on deck.
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Las Vegas Raiders betting overview
What will win bets: Skill players
Sure, Jimmy Garoppolo knows head coach Josh McDaniels' playbook but that doesn’t mean he’s great at it. The 49ers’ plug-and-play QB in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme proves Jimmy G was a system quarterback in San Francisco. Luckily for him, he has a wealth of offensive talents around him in Sin City.
Running back Josh Jacobs led the league with 1,653 yards rushing yet Vegas’ run game ranked just 20th in EPA per handoff and ran the ball on less than 41% of snaps. Jacobs’ presence does take pressure off Garoppolo and gives Vegas a closer when playing with a late lead.
The offensive line may not get the credit it deserves, ranking tops in adjusted line yards and No. 8 in pass protection at Football Outsiders in 2022. This group ranks middle of the road in 2023 preseason polls but has consistency with the interior three returning.
The loss of star tight end Darren Waller might not be as bad as it looks, considering he couldn’t stay healthy. Las Vegas replaces him with veteran Austin Hooper and Notre Dame product Michael Mayer.
McDaniels is attempting to replicate his slot-heavy offense from New England with the addition of former Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers, who will team up with Hunter Renfrow for those short shots. And, of course, Davante Adams is a monster. He finished third in receiving yards despite the downfall of Derek Carr.
What will lose bets: Defense
Look-ahead totals tell us a lot about the Raiders in 2023. Bookies are bracing for plenty of points, setting the team’s average Over/Under number at 45 points.
Part of that is the offense's potential, but those taller totals are rooted in a defense that is very wet behind the ears. Outside of headliners like Maxx Crosby and the underperforming Chandler Jones, Vegas has a lot of young blood leading the stop unit and little depth.
Preseason polls rank the Raiders defense as low as 31st in the NFL and should those veterans up front fail to pick up the pass rush production (Vegas had only 27 sacks on a press rate of 19.3% last year), a soft secondary will be exploited and the efforts on offense will go to waste.
The schedule is very much a baptism by fire for these young pieces. Not only do you have six games against Kansas City, Los Angeles, and a Payton-led Denver attack, but you also run into Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, the Jets, and Minnesota — all offenses expected to pour on the points in 2023.
Las Vegas Raiders 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Denver Broncos |
+4.5 |
| 2 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+8 |
| 3 | vs  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+1.5 |
| 4 | @  Los Angeles Chargers |
+5.5 |
| 5 | vs  Green Bay Packers |
-1.5 |
| 6 | vs  New England Patriots |
-1 |
| 7 | @  Chicago Bears |
+1 |
| 8 | @  Detroit Lions |
+4.5 |
| 9 | vs  New York Giants |
-1.5 |
| 10 | vs  New York Jets |
+2.5 |
| 11 | @  Miami Dolphins |
+5.5 |
| 12 | vs  Kansas City Chiefs |
+5 |
| 13 | BYE | |
| 14 | vs  Minnesota Vikings |
+1 |
| 15 | vs Los Angeles Chargers |
+2.5 |
| 16 | @ Kansas City Chiefs |
+8.5 |
| 17 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
-2 |
| 18 | vs Denver Broncos |
+1 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The Raiders’ schedule ranks middle of the road in terms of strength but there are hard crunchy challenges bookending a softer chewy middle to the calendar.
The Silver and Black play three of their first four games away from the Deathstar and venture away from Vegas for five of their opening eight games. Year 1 under Josh McDaniels saw the Raiders finish 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS as a visitor.
Las Vegas leaves home only once in a seven-game span come November, which includes a Week 13 bye, from Week 9 to Week 15. However, six of those opponents made the playoffs last season and the other is the frickin’ Jets.
That stretch tightens up toward the end with four games in a 21-day span in December, including a Christmas Day game at Arrowhead Stadium and a New Year’s Eve trip to Indianapolis.
Given the market read on the Raiders and this topsy-turvy sked, my NFL power ratings placed Las Vegas 28th overall (29.41/100). That’s behind the Broncos (17th) and well off the pace of L.A. (7th) and Kansas City (1st) in terms of the AFC West race.
Vegas puts those projections to the test in Week 1 with a very challenging opener. The Raiders go Rocky Mountain high to duke it out with Denver, with the Broncos holding a significant home-field edge in the early workings of the season.
In the first month of the schedule, visitors to Mile High are still working their way into game shape and the altitude has an evident impact on their performance. Denver is 20-3 SU and 14-5-4 ATS (74%) in home openers since 2000 and wins 76% of its home games in the first four weeks of the schedule during that span (52% ATS). Look-ahead lines have this spread at Raiders +4.5 while my ratings have it forecast in the Raiders +5.5 range.
Las Vegas Raiders schedule spot bet
Week 17: @ Colts
The Raiders won’t be home for the holidays in 2023, which can serve up a whole other set of distractions outside of just playing on the road.
Las Vegas is at Kansas City on Xmas Day (a Monday afternoon game) and then travels to Indianapolis on a short week for a second straight road tilt on New Year’s Eve. This contest with the Colts will be Las Vegas’ fourth game in 21 days come December.
Given the spreads and low win total for 2023, this Raiders team could be running on fumes at the end of the season and motivation to play might be missing if players and staff are juggling holiday plans around a losing football schedule.
Early odds have this as one of five pick’em spreads on the board for Vegas while my power rating spit out a spread of Raiders +1 before adjusting for the back-to-back road stops or short week around the holidays.
Star power: Davante Adams props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +15,000 | +20,000 | +15,000 |
| OPOY | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| Receiving yards leader | +1,200 | +2,000 | +1,500 |
| Receiving TD leader | +1,400 | +1,100 | +1,200 |
| Receptions leader | +750 | +1,600 | OTB |
Best prop: Over 1,250.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
An offseason injury and Josh Jacobs’ pending status have kept Adams’ player props off the board in recent weeks, as books play it cool with the Raiders’ top target. He’s back on the practice field and the injury was deemed not serious, so props should start popping back up soon.
One market that is on the board at select books is Adams' Over/Under on receiving yards. That total is parked at 1,250.5 yards O/U — a steep decline from his 1,516 yards through the air in 2022. Player projections differ but the bulk does side with the Over on this yardage total, boasting a consensus forecast of 1,273 yards.
Not only are we talking about an elite pass catcher that finished third in production in Year 1 in this playbook but look at how Adams finished 2023, with Derek Carr spiraling and Jarrett Stidham getting the final two starts. His targets and receptions sunk like a stone.
I’m not a big Jimmy G believer but I do believe in game script. With Vegas pegged as an underdog most weeks, the Raiders will be playing from behind and that means plenty of passing.
Las Vegas Raiders betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Things could get really ugly for Josh McDaniels and the Raiders offense in 2023. Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off foot surgery, left the most QB-friendly environment imaginable in SF, and only 28 of his 308 pass attempts traveled 20-plus yards, making him one of the least-frequent deep-ball passers in football. He finished 30th in air yards per attempt. The O-line is projected to be one of the leakiest in the league, Josh Jacobs is coming off a 404-touch season, and the additions of Jakobi Myers and Austin Hooper don’t move the needle.
Last year, only the Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Dolphins scored more points in the AFC than the Raiders' 395. That includes a Top-10 easy schedule. Things will be tougher for the Raiders to put up points this year, and they are one Jimmy G injury from Brian Hoyer. bet365 has their team total points at 370 (3-way market), which works out to 21.7 points per game or fewer for the Under and 369 points on the season at +100. McDaniels is 17-28 SU as an HC and has finished 20th, 19th, 32nd, 27th, sixth, and 12th in offensive points in the six seasons without Tom Brady. This team will struggle to average more than 21 points per game with a Top-10 difficult SOS.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
At this point, we have all the evidence we need to know that Josh McDaniels is not fit to be a head coach in the NFL. Combine that with what I view as a slight downgrade at quarterback from Derek Carr thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury history, and it looks like Las Vegas is a clear candidate to be a bottom-five team in the NFL.
While I’m fully aligned with anyone who wants to take the Under on their 6.5 win total, my favorite Raiders-related bet is fading Garoppolo’s passing yard total of 3,300.5 at DraftKings. He only topped this in two of his six seasons in San Francisco due to injuries. He simply can’t stay healthy and I don’t expect that to change as he ages. There’s also a chance the team will want to take a look at rookie Aiden O’Connell who’s having a strong training camp/preseason when they fall out of the playoff race.
Las Vegas Raiders trend to know
The Raiders have given the local bookies headaches with their propensity to play Over the total inside Allegiant Stadium — one of the more “public” plays for Vegas visitors hitting up the sportsbooks.
In just three short seasons in Sin City, the Silver and Black have produced a 17-7-1 Over/Under record at home, topping the total 70% of the time as hosts.
Last year, the Raiders finished 5-2-1 Over/Under in their eight home stands, with an average of more than 53 combined points per game in those contests. That’s a 10-point jump compared to the Raiders’ road outings (3-6 Over/Under).
Given the makeup of the 2023 team — good offense/bad defense — more of those home Overs could be on the way.
