If you like placing money on the first touchdown in NFL odds, betting on the result of the first drive pre-game might be another market that interests you.
It’s a four-way market with a punt, field goal attempt, touchdown, and turnover that exhibits greater predictability and reveals certain pricing flaws both before the game and in live markets.
For Sunday's NFC Championship, I’m going to go through my process and lay out the best cases for each offense’s first-drive result. While it’s not a massive sample size, the pricing is almost completely based on the offensive results, leaving some angles that aren’t priced in.
For more NFL picks, make sure to check out our Lions vs. 49ers betting preview, NFC Championship props, and spotlight picks for Christian McCaffrey odds!
Lions first-drive result
 First drive result |
 |
DET Off. first drive | DET Off. 1D (away) | SF Def. | SF Def. (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punt | +110 | 42% (8/19) | 44% (4/9) | 39% (7/18) | 44% |
| FG attempt | +360 | 16% (3/19) | 22% (2/9) | 28% (5/18) | 22% |
| Touchdown | +255 | 32% (6/19) | 22% (2/9) | 22% (4/18) | 33% |
| Turnover | +550 | 10% (2/19) | 11% (1/9) | 11% (2/18) | 20% |
There has been a lot of talk about the Detroit Lions’ road and away splits and the significant dropoff in Jared Goff’s output when he is away from Ford Field, but this is an indoor team that got to play four of its nine road games indoors and has played just a single outdoor game since Week 7.
Goff’s completion percentage drops seven points going outdoors. That's on top of a 27-point drop in his passer rating, a 5:4 TD: INT ratio over five games, and a 1.6-yard drop in his yards per pass attempt. Those road games in order of most recent were Chicago (Week 14), Baltimore (Week 7), Tampa Bay (Week 6), Green Bay (Week 4), and KC (Week 1).
In those five outdoor games, this offense punted four times and turned the ball over once. They’ve averaged 4.2 plays per series in those five games.
The Detroit offense has scored just six TDs on 19 opening drives, with all of those being generated indoors and four of them coming at home.
Taking the Lions to punt is the best move at +110. With how good the San Francisco 49ers offense is to begin games, Detroit will also be likely looking at a long field likely either way.
The +110 odds might seem like a 48% probable play, but factor in the 14% hold on the four-way market, and the odds are implying roughly 44% probable. This is at least a coin flip to me.
Pick: Punt (+110 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
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49ers first-drive result
 First drive result |
|
SF Off. first drive | SF Off. 1D (away) | DET Def. | DET Def. (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punt | +160 | 23% (4/18) | 33% (3/9) | 37% (7/19) | 33% |
| FG attempt | +370 | 11% (2/18) | 11% (1/9) | 11% (2/19) | 11% |
| Touchdown | +150 | 55% (10/18) | 44% (4/9) | 32% (6/19) | 33% |
| Turnover | +650 | 11% (2/18) | 11% (1/9) | 21% (4/19) | 22% |
I think anyone betting on this market for the first time would automatically lean to the 49ers scoring on the opening drive, given the well-known narrative of Kyle Shanahan's scripted plays.
Detroit’s defense has by far the worst TD% allowed on first drives, with teams finding paydirt in six of the 19 games. The Lions allowed two TDs, a field-goal attempt, and forced two punts.
The defense easily owns the biggest flaws of the remaining teams, and the issues in the secondary will allow San Francisco to move the stick early on. Of the four remaining QBs, Brock Purdy has the highest success rate on plays with a pass probability of 75% or higher.
Anticipate Shanahan orchestrating yet another flawless opening drive for an offense that boasts three more opening drive touchdowns than any of the remaining teams.
Pick: Touchdown (+150 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
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