The Detroit Lions head to the Windy City on Sunday afternoon to take on the Chicago Bears.
While Chicago enters on an eight-game losing streak, my Lions vs. Bears predictions expect them to cover the spread in Week 16. Here are my best free NFL picks for this NFC North battle on December 22.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, with the game airing on FOX.
Lions vs Bears prediction
Lions vs. Bears moneyline prediction
It might not be as easy as the 6.5-point spread would suggest, but the Lions should be able to get the win on the road here. After all, this team is tied for the best record in the league and will be looking to bounce back after a 48-42 defeat last week. Meanwhile, the Bears have dropped eight in a row and keep finding ways to lose.
Lions vs. Bears spread prediction
While I expect the Lions to win, covering a 6.5-point spread will be tough. Detroit tends to see a dropoff in play away from home and injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball. In addition, these division rivalries are often tougher than expected due to familiarity and motivation. Matter of fact, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these rivals.
Lions vs. Bears total prediction
I expect the Bears to move the ball against a Lions defense that has way too many key injuries on defense and has given up more than 30 points in back-to-back games. That said, I also think Chicago will be unable to stop Detroit's attack. The Bears have struggled against the run all year and they are just 30th in the league in defensive dropback EPA since Week 11. That has me leaning towards the Over.
My best bet
Bears alternate spread +7 (-125 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Chicago Bears may be playing terrible football, but this is still a talented squad. This pass defense was one of the best in the league during the second half of last season and the first 10 weeks of this year, and there are plenty of playmakers at wide receiver who should be able to shred an injury-depleted Detroit Lions stop unit.
Detroit's defense had somehow survived the season-ending injury to superstar defensive end Aidan Hutchinson in Week 6, but there are now key injuries at every level. Starting defensive tackle Alim McNeil and top corner Carlton Davis have been added to the IR and there has been a cluster of injuries at linebacker — with Alex Anzalone the biggest absence.
There are also crucial injuries on offense, with running back David Montgomery out with an MCL injury and interior linemen Graham Glasgow and Frank Ragnow also banged up.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff also has a history of struggling in cold weather. The California-raised QB holds a career passer rating of 102.2 in domed stadiums, but that number dips to 89.7 outdoors, so the freezing temps and blowing wind at Soldier Field could negatively affect him.
On the other side of the ball, Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams has been inconsistent but he has performed significantly better at home where he has a passer rating of 97.5.
Lions vs Bears same-game parlay
Bears alternate spread +7
Over 48
Jahmyr Gibbs 75+ rushing yards
Jahmyr Gibbs boasts 1,047 yards on the ground this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry this year. The sophomore RB has rushed for at least 75 yards in seven of his last 13 games, and that's been despite splitting carries with Montgomery.
With Montgomery done for the year, Gibbs will see a bigger workload moving forward, especially against a Chicago defense that ranks sixth in yards allowed per carry (4.7) and 27th in defensive rush EPA.
The Bears should move the ball against a Lions defense that has way too many key injuries on defense and has given up more than 30 points in back-to-back games. That said, I also think Chicago won't be able to stop Detroit's attack, even with the injury to Montgomery. After all, the Bears have struggled against the run all year while sitting 30th in the league in defensive dropback EPA since Week 11.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Lions vs Bears odds
Lions vs Bears live odds
Lions vs Bears opening odds
- Spread: Detroit -7 | Chicago 7
- Moneyline: Detroit -350 | Chicago +275
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Lions vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at the key number of 7 but early money came in on the Bears, slimming the line to -6.5.
- The total has ticked up from 46.5 to 48, which isn't surprising considering both defenses were lit up last week.
- The Bears lost 30-12 to the Vikings last Monday and they are now 0-8 straight up and 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight games.
- The Lions are coming off a 48-42 loss to the Bills, snapping an 11-game win streak where they had gone 8-3 ATS.
- 73% of Covers Consensus users are backing Detroit on the spread, while 53% are taking the Over.
Lions vs Bears betting trend to know
Chicago has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 home games (+7.90 Units / 64% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Bears.
Lions vs Bears game info
| Location: | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Lions vs Bears latest injuries
Lions vs Bears weather
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