The Detroit Lions are coming off their first win of the season and head to Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos in Week 14 of NFL action. Oddsmakers aren't expecting them to make it two in a row, with NFL betting lines having the Broncos installed as 10-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 42.
Here are our best free Lions vs. Broncos NFL picks and predictions for Sunday, December 12, with kickoff at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Lions vs Broncos odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line opened with the Broncos at -8 and the total at 41.5. The line quickly shifted to -7.5 before bouncing back to -8 before money came in on Denver late Wednesday and early Thursday which moved the number all the way to -10. The total has ticked up to 42.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Lions vs Broncos predictions
Predictions made on 12/9/2021 at 3 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lions vs Broncos game info
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Lions at Broncos betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Lions: Trinity Benson WR (Out), David Blough QB (Out), T.J. Hockenson TE (Out), Julian Okwara LB (Out), Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB (Out), D'Andre Swift RB (Out), Frank Ragnow C (Out), Trey Flowers ED (Out), Romeo Okwara ED (Out), Jeff Okudah CB (Out), Quintez Cephus WR (Out).
Broncos: McTelvon Agim DE (Out), Essang Bassey CB (Out), Jamar Johnson S (Out), Michael Ojemudia CB (Out), Brett Rypien QB (Out), Graham Glasgow G (Out), KJ Hamler WR (Out), Alexander Johnson (Out), Josey Jewell LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Broncos.
Lions vs Broncos picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
After weeks of falling apart at the end of close contests, the Detroit Lions finally won a game last week against the Vikings. They overcame a questionable fourth-down attempt and turnover by marching 75 yards down the field to score the game-winning touchdown as time expired.
But pump the brakes on the Detroit bandwagon because this is still the team with the worst record in the NFL and ranks 29th in the league in offensive DVOA and 28th in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They're also battling a flu outbreak that has several players, including quarterback Jared Goff, listed as questionable for Sunday.
The Broncos are fresh off a 22-9 loss to the Chiefs and are just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last nine games after starting the season off with three straight wins against NFL bottom-feeders in the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets.
The Broncos have struggled offensively over the last couple of months, averaging just 18 points per game since the start of October. They also haven't impressed on the defensive side of the ball where injuries to linebackers Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell have dropped their defensive rush DVOA to 25th in the league.
If there's one thing that the Lions like to do it's run the football. And as bad as they are, they've been beating the massive spreads put in front of them, covering in four straight contests. With the Broncos having a tough time moving the chains lately, we're taking the underdogs with the points.
Prediction: Lions +10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Lions scored 29 points last week but that was just the first time they've broken the 20-point plateau since Week 1 when they needed a pair of garbage-time touchdowns in the final two minutes to eclipse that mark. This is an extremely conservative offense that rarely looks downfield and prefers to either predictably run the ball or dump it off to a tight end or running back near the line of scrimmage.
Goff may have been named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance versus the Vikings, but he still ranks dead-last in the NFL in average completed air yards (4.0) and his QBR of 66.7 is worse than every passer in the league with the exception of three rookies. The Lions took advantage of a banged-up Vikings defense last week but likely won't have the same success against a Broncos stop unit whose strength lies in its secondary.
That said, Denver's offense hasn't been a whole lot more productive. The Broncos have been held below 20 points in six of their last nine games, and play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league.
With the Under going 5-1 in the Broncos' last six home games and also cashing in five straight road contests for the Lions, back it again.
Prediction: Under 42 (-110)
Best bet
Although the Lions might appear due for a letdown after such an emotional victory against a division foe, they've been playing opponents close for a while now, losing by more than 10 points just twice in their last 10 games. They have also outplayed expectations on the road, going 4-0 ATS in their previous four away contests. Meanwhile, oddsmakers have been overestimating Denver at Mile High with the Broncos just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite.
It's also worth mentioning that this line shifted from -8 to -10 after reports of Detroit's flu outbreak and multiple players sitting out practice on Wednesday. However, that might be a bit of an over-reaction from the public and markets. In the past, players would have missed a day or two to the flu or cold without anybody noticing but more caution is being exercised now due to COVID.
As Goff said of his absence on Wednesday, "I would have been fine today. I could have been totally fine to be at the facility today. It was out of an abundance of caution."
These are still professional athletes with access to some of the best medical staffs in the world, so expect most of the key players to be good to go on Sunday and grab this line.
Pick: Lions +10 (-110)
